Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

[Wb1234]

Foxtel are going to lose the rights eventually.. so if that’s what their (Foxtel) worth is dependent on .. it’ll doesn’t seem a wise investment … maybe HBO should just talk directly to the NRL

That’s a great point

 

[Iamback]

Foxtel are going to lose the rights eventually.. so if that’s what their (Foxtel) worth is dependent on .. it’ll doesn’t seem a wise investment … maybe HBO should just talk directly to the NRL

Binge has as much subs as Kayo has, then you get all the old programming for extra content.

That is a head start in new streaming.

As for speaking to the NRL, PVL owns a production company but a new streamer won't have the numbers.

Either way a new buyer is going to want to stream line things and just having less games is a good way to do that.

 

[Munky]

Where are you guys pulling HBO from?

It is owned by Warner Bros Discovery who are in a world of pain at the moment and just took a write down on their cable assets of $9b USD.

They just lost the NBA rights in the US (although trying to sue over Amazon getting the streaming rights).

HBO content I believe is also leaving Foxtel/Binge for its own Max streaming service.

Why would a company bid for Foxtel when the can bid directly for the content on a new service? Very little physical infrastructure spend is required unlike pre streaming to start a new service.

 

[Iamback]

Where are you guys pulling HBO from?

It is owned by Warner Bros Discovery who are in a world of pain at the moment and just took a write down on their cable assets of $9b USD.

They just lost the NBA rights in the US (although trying to sue over Amazon getting the streaming rights).

HBO content I believe is also leaving Foxtel/Binge for its own Max streaming service.

Why would a company bid for Foxtel when the can bid directly for the content on a new service? Very little physical infrastructure spend is required unlike pre streaming to start a new service.

You'd think it would be a company with no presence here, I just threw them out because as you said they are looking to come here but haven't.

And they have an existing relationship with Foxtel so them talking makes sense.

Genuine question who else would be interested?

Netflix, Amazon, Disney are already here. Buying Foxtel makes no sense

 

[Munky]

Netflix is getting into NFL game streaming over Christmas this year.

Amazon is already in on the NFL with Thursday night football.

Apple has the MLS (lol).

Disney owns ESPN and is launching a sports streaming service this year with other large NFL rights owners.

Google via YouTube has the NFL Sunday Ticket.

Paramount did just get sold so they might want a crack through owning Channnel ten or FTA and Paramount Plus to stream

I'll be very surprised if one of the major media/tech companies doesn't come in and have a bid on the NRL/AFL.

 

[Wb1234]

You'd think it would be a company with no presence here, I just threw them out because as you said they are looking to come here but haven't.

And they have an existing relationship with Foxtel so them talking makes sense.

Genuine question who else would be interested?

Netflix, Amazon, Disney are already here. Buying Foxtel makes no sense

Stan or a hedge fund like Macquarie or blackrock

 

[Iamback]

Netflix is getting into NFL game streaming over Christmas this year.

Amazon is already in on the NFL with Thursday night football.

Apple has the MLS (lol).

Disney owns ESPN and is launching a sports streaming service this year with other large NFL rights owners.

Google via YouTube has the NFL Sunday Ticket.

Paramount did just get sold so they might want a crack through owning Channnel ten or FTA and Paramount Plus to stream

I'll be very surprised if one of the major media/tech companies doesn't come in and have a bid on the NRL/AFL.

All of those sports can be sold to overseas markets.

Where do they sell NRL to?

That is the problem with getting it done, I think NRL doing it's own production and selling the days seperate is the best option to get them on board

 

[Steel Saints]

I think they vastly overpaid for the AFL because they got a ridiculous cut price deal on the NRL. They are trying to get out before shit hits the fan when the NRL says pay up.

New seven year AFL tv deal commences next year. News Ltd, who owns 65% of Foxtel, is looking to sell it off.

Coincidence?

 

[Chief_Chujo]

This makes no business sense whatsoever. Foxtel is answerable to NWS shareholders. And in this case there was a decent offer from Paramount to compete with. Will that be there next year or the year after when NRL negotations are in full swing? who knows.

What I'm saying is their current model may not be sustainable if they need to pay the NRL a large increase on the current deal. No, paramount may or may not be in play next deal. But you can bet there will be players willing to pay substantially more than what the NRL is currently getting.

 

[The_Wookie]

What I'm saying is their current model may not be sustainable if they need to pay the NRL a large increase on the current deal. No, paramount may or may not be in play next deal. But you can bet there will be players willing to pay substantially more than what the NRL is currently getting.

Im not sure i "can bet" that at the moment. Paramount is struggling, Nine and Seven are having their own issues leading to layoffs and programming cuts. People go on about Amazon/Neftlix and such, but the NRL doesnt have the same market that their Cricket or NFL deals do

 

[Chief_Chujo]

Im not sure i "can bet" that at the moment. Paramount is struggling, Nine and Seven are having their own issues leading to layoffs and programming cuts. People go on about Amazon/Neftlix and such, but the NRL doesnt have the same market that their Cricket or NFL deals do

Would you agree the gap in the deals between fox and the NRL/AFL is a bit too much?

Edit: you're kind of proving my point as well saying there may be no bidders. A huge deal done while things were rosy isn't really sustainable in a destitute market.

 

[Iamback]

Would you agree the gap in the deals between fox and the NRL/AFL is a bit too much?

Edit: you're kind of proving my point as well saying there may be no bidders. A huge deal done while things were rosy isn't really sustainable in a destitute market.

We know AFL brings in more advertising.

We don't know the subs though, If they are pretty even for both sports.

Which given a party of execs signed off, You expect figures behind it.

Then why would it not get more?

 

[Iamback]

Im not sure i "can bet" that at the moment. Paramount is struggling, Nine and Seven are having their own issues leading to layoffs and programming cuts. People go on about Amazon/Neftlix and such, but the NRL doesnt have the same market that their Cricket or NFL deals do

Yep I don't see them as viable options.

I think the rights can be streamlined for TV and the NRL.

Take today, ch9 had 8 presenters across 2 NRLW games and the NRL tonight.

Fox had the same and the the on field broadcast. For the exact same programming

The one network should have exclusive rights to everything on a set day.

Break the rights up like that and it makes it affordable for more players

 

[The_Wookie]

Would you agree the gap in the deals between fox and the NRL/AFL is a bit too much?

Ive said this before, we arent privy to all the information that goes into these discussions and previously, the evidence suggests that raw ratings that we see arent the be all and end all some would hope.

Edit: you're kind of proving my point as well saying there may be no bidders. A huge deal done while things were rosy isn't really sustainable in a destitute market.

AFL 4.5b deal was done in 2022, the first year after the "COVID crisis" passed, and before their 2023-24 deal extension kicked in. Paramount was a new player desperate for more than the Aleague, but has since run into trouble and now is merging. What that means for Ten/Para Aus is anyones guess. Likewise, Nine and Seven werent cutting jobs left and right at the time.

The NRL is entering discussions at a different time. Hopefully it pans out for them. I like to see good competition, it stops people from getting complacet and forces innovation on the AFL and NRL to outdo each other.

 

[The_Wookie]

We know AFL brings in more advertising.

We know they bring in more Advertisers. We dont know about the advertising amounts really. The AFL has more national broadcast partners for its programming on Seven and Fox when compared with the NRL on Nine and Fox. That doesnt include regional FTA advertising which is going to vary from location to location.

 

[Iamback]

We know they bring in more Advertisers. We dont know about the advertising amounts really. The AFL has more national broadcast partners for its programming on Seven and Fox when compared with the NRL on Nine and Fox. That doesnt include regional FTA advertising which is going to vary from location to location.

Unless they are getting 1/4 the NRL price then the fact there are more breaks mean AFL brings in more advertising.

Of course it rates less but not enough to cancel that out

 

[Chief_Chujo]

Ive said this before, we arent privy to all the information that goes into these discussions and previously, the evidence suggests that raw ratings that we see arent the be all and end all some would hope.




AFL 4.5b deal was done in 2022, the first year after the "COVID crisis" passed, and before their 2023-24 deal extension kicked in. Paramount was a new player desperate for more than the Aleague, but has since run into trouble and now is merging. What that means for Ten/Para Aus is anyones guess. Likewise, Nine and Seven werent cutting jobs left and right at the time.

The NRL is entering discussions at a different time. Hopefully it pans out for them. I like to see good competition, it stops people from getting complacet and forces innovation on the AFL and NRL to outdo each other.

Yea fair, were just spit balling. My belief is they can't sustain two massive deals and that's why they are putting feelers out for a sell off. If the deal happened today would the NRL have leverage? Probably not. But as your example of the AFL deal shows, the landscape can change very quickly.

 

[Iamback]

Yea fair, were just spit balling. My belief is they can't sustain two massive deals and that's why they are putting feelers out for a sell off. If the deal happened today would the NRL have leverage? Probably not. But as your example of the AFL deal shows, the landscape can change very quickly.

If you look at world sport. Networks can't even afford to have the same sport exclusive, Australia is fast getting to that stage

 

[Jamberoo]

What impact might the reduction/ban on gambling ads have on the next deal? impact could be twofold - the NRL gets $50m per year from gambling companies, and the media rights will be worth a lot less without gambling ads, which make up about 50% of ads during games. Changes to come in 2026. Not good timing.

Reckon this will have a bigger impact than the possible sale of Foxtel.

 

[taste2taste]

Maybe Foxtell are selling now because they know they'll miss or can't afford the next NRL rights ?

It's no secret 9/Stan will be throwing the kitchen sink to win, Fox might be aware they can't afford to overpay for both AFL and NRL ?