Foxtel would lose more than a third of its current top-rating shows if it does not acquire the future pay television rights to show National Rugby League games, official ratings figures show.
Meanwhile industry estimates suggest the cable and satellite television giant could put hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue at risk if it does not win the auction.
Foxtel's co-owner News Corp has launched a campaign to unseat NRL chairman Dave Smith after he moved to negotiate a free to air agreement instead of dealing with all rights, including pay televisions rights, held News Corp's Fox Sports.
After striking an exclusive $925 million five-year free-to-air deal with Nine Entertainment Co earlier this month, the NRL needs to sell pay television rights in an effort to increase its total take to $1.7-$1.8 billion.
Fox Sports had been keen to show all eight weekly NRL matches live, against the five it now has rights for, but may baulk at paying the NRL a large increase after Nine cut into its live rights with its Saturday match.
However, OzTAM ratings figures obtained by Fairfax Media reveal the importance of the code to Foxtel's ratings and therefore the pressure Foxtel, owned by News Corp and Telstra, is under to strike a deal with the NRL.
The statistics show that 3.5 of the top 10 shows on pay television on average were NRL games or programmes from week 10 to week 33 of the ratings season. In five of those weeks, half the top 10 shows were NRL-related.
NRL TOP RATER
And in 10 of those weeks, an NRL show or game won the number one ratings slot for subscription television.
The average proportion of NRL shows in Foxtel's top 10 is expected to be higher in the strongest NRL-states Sydney and Brisbane, where one industry estimate puts the number of subscribers taking Foxtel predominantly for the NRL as high as 600,000.
Based on that estimate Foxtel could put more than $350 million of its $3.1 billion annual revenue at risk based on the assumption that those users are paying at least $49 a month for the basic and sports Foxtel packages.
A spokesman for Foxtel said, in an email: "While many subscribers love our coverage of NRL, the truth is that over the past five years the number of NRL matches in the top 100 programs on the platform has dropped from 73 to 22, over the same period the AFL has increased from 8 to 53. In addition, the figures you have been fed significantly overstate the number of subscribers who primarily take Foxtel in order to watch the NRL."
As revealed by Fairfax Media on Tuesday, Foxtel faces potential competition for the rights from a well-funded rival with Qatari giant beIN Sports keen to explore a bid of its own.
After rival code the Australian Football League signed the largest broadcast rights deal in Australian sport history with News Corp, Seven West Media and Telstra, News Corp chairman Rupert Murdoch said: "I guess we will engage with the NRL in time." The three companies will pay $2.508 billion over six years.
Foxtel chief executive Richard Freudenstein has since stressed that the "NRL are very good partners" and said "we obviously want to keep working with them". Foxtel provides some of the funding for Fox Sports' current $110 million-a-year NRL contract.
