Channel Nine will make a bold bid to broadcast one AFL game on Sunday afternoons, precipitating a retaliatory move by rival Seven for the highly prized State of Origin series.
The two networks are desperate to increase their ratings in their non-traditional sports states, with Nine's State of Origins guaranteed to deliver 12 million viewers nationally, principally in NSW and Queensland where Seven's AFL coverage, other than Swans matches, competes with the test pattern for viewer numbers.
Should Nine acquire an AFL game for the popular Sunday afternoon slot and Seven buy Origin, Australia's two dominant free-to-air networks would have stakes in territory where they struggle for advertising dollars.
Nine's bid for an AFL Sunday afternoon game would not be at the expense of its coverage of an NRL match in the same time slot.
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Multi-channelling allows networks to broadcast games simultaneously where, for example, southern viewers would see an AFL game on Nine's main channel on a Sunday afternoon, while northern viewers would watch it on a digital channel. The reverse would apply for the NRL match, which would be shown live in NSW and Queensland, while Victoria and the south and west would access it via minor channels.
"Both codes could co-exist on Nine by flip-flopping [between stations]," an executive close to the negotiations said. "Wherever you live in Australia, you could watch Sunday afternoon football on Nine.
"That's a valuable franchise and a bragging right."
The ARL Commission has signalled a willingness to sell NRL games and Origin as separate packages, a move designed to draw Seven and Ten to the broadcast rights auction.
Wednesday night Origin matches would not interfere with Seven's AFL coverage.
However, Nine is confident the ARLC will not separate Origin from its NRL home and away programming.
"The problem with splitting Origin is that it devalues the remaining premiership season, meaning there is no net gain in the separation," the source said.
Should Seven acquire Origin, it would ignore the NRL premiership season on its AFL coverage, nor would Nine promote Origin during its NRL broadcasts.
Nine has no interest in bidding for Saturday night AFL games which, while not conflicting with Nine's existing Friday night and Sunday NRL cover, could destabilise Nine's relationship with Fox Sports.
Any free-to-air network acquiring either AFL or NRL must have a pay for view partner to take half the AFL's nine games per week and the NRL's eight, plus contribute to the expected $1.75 billion to $2 billion fee for the broadcast rights.
Channel Ten's bid for NRL Saturday night games during the last broadcast negotiations threatened Fox Sports "Super Saturday" programming.
It caused a rift between Ten chairman Lachlan Murdoch and the then chief executive of News Ltd, Kim Williams who had control of negotiations on behalf of Fox Sports.
It cost Williams his job and he is now an AFL commissioner where he will presumably assist the AFL in its media rights negotiations which officially begin this month.
The AFL's existing deal concludes at the end of 2016, with the NRL contract expiring a year later.
However, both codes have gone to the market at the same time, precipitating fierce lobbying.
It is the first time in the history of broadcast negotiations where a first and rights option does not exist for either code.
Seven exercised its first and last right to win back AFL coverage from Nine who held it from 2002 to 2006, while Nine used its option to scuttle Ten's bid for the current NRL deal.
The absence of a first and last rights clause raises the possibility of a network making a killer, long-term offer which is finalised quickly.
Unlike Seven's minimalist cover of rugby league, Nine has maintained its AFL programming, with popular shows in prime time on its main channel in Melbourne.
Global Sport and Media's Colin Smith, who has worked for both the AFL and NRL on past deals, says, "The bottom line is that these will be the most complex negotiations ever undertaken in Australia.
"Live mainstream sport is the only guarantee of ratings success. Ten have had success with Big Bash cricket and will want winter sport programming.
"The fundamental questions are: which networks will win and who will lose? Who will partner with Fox Sport and will that vary by AFL/NRL?"
Smith says Nine's pre-emptive strike for Seven's Sunday afternoon AFL reminds him of the Al Capone character in
The Untouchables.
"You get more with a kind word and a gun than you do with just a kind word."
Nine has fired the first shot but the NRL, by joining the gunfight early, seeks to ensure all the ammunition isn't spent on the AFL.
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/...igin-tv-broadcast-rights-20150612-ghmh6f.html
