Next TV rights deal

[DiegoNT]

Foxtel needs the nrl. It was built of the back of the nrl and without nrl it would simply die
In the worst case scenario Foxtel only pays a couple of hundred million for the remaining 4 games (meaning the nrl get about $1.2b), we have a split of 4 fta and 4 pay tv games. that works out ok for the fans but not for Foxtel, who'll have people seriously weighing up whether to continue with their subscription now that fox only has 4 games at the worst times and their are 4 live games on fta.
In the best case scenario it forces fox to have to pay big dollars so the can simulcast games, meaning not only do the nrl get close to their $1.7b target but we also get 4 live games fta and 8 games live on pay tv.

 

[taipan]

Another thought that occurs to me is that Rupert could put shed loads of money into rugby union (Super Rugby AND the Australian Championship that follows it) and try to undermine RL by headhunting talent to the other code.

As News has an interest in the Broncos,and as their NRL subs in the, Northern states are substantial,by seeking revenge and putting money into kick and clap and ignoring the nRL,they will just about bring Pay TV to its knees .
If NRL games average 250-300,000 viewers per game on Fox,losing those subscriptions even on a $20 mthly sub base amounts to $60m pa.And that is being conservative.IMO it would be a hell of a lot more than that.Advertisers would also be lost.
They would be committing commercial suicide.

 

[docbrown]

I hear Murdoch's so pissed off he's going to set a bag of shit on fire on Dave Smith's front porch.

 

[beave]

 

[Cletus]

What's the worst that can happen? Fox could pay $400 million for the rights and it would still be a 20% increase with control over the draw, 2 extra live games and an extra game on FTA. I wouldn't care if the AFL got more for their rights, League doesn't need as much money to run and this deal gives much better exposure for league overall and better coverage of each team. Fox will have to come out with some sort of offer, they don't have a choice. And don't forget ratings and advertising spend has been going backwards for years.

 

[Captain Apollo]

As News has an interest in the Broncos,and as their NRL subs in the, Northern states are substantial,by seeking revenge and putting money into kick and clap and ignoring the nRL,they will just about bring Pay TV to its knees .
If NRL games average 250-300,000 viewers per game on Fox,losing those subscriptions even on a $20 mthly sub base amounts to $60m pa.And that is being conservative.IMO it would be a hell of a lot more than that.Advertisers would also be lost.
They would be committing commercial suicide.

Also add in that rugby union does not rate very well on TV compared to rugby league nor AFL. It would not matter how much money you threw at Union it would not change things.

 

[BuffaloRules]

Surprised they didn't go to market if true? Maybe they thought the Nine offer couldn't be bettered? Going to need a good sales pitch from the NRL to get Fox to stump up $500mill plus imo. Loss of Super Saturday exclusivity and Monday night is massive for them.

More doom and gloom?

Can you conceive of Fox surviving without NRL?

They are already doing it tough...

 

[Perth Red]

Depends on of there is any serious competition for the other games. Fox could offer $200mill. What are the NRL going to do, turn down that sort of money? Of course if there is someone else interested it changes the game but if not then Fox will offer what they think it is now worth to them, which is considerably less than in the last deal imo.

An alternative could be the NRL keeping exclusive online rights and selling them directly to the fan? Think we might be a bit away from that but in theory it could produce and sell its own content online direct.

They have got an unbelievable $ deal from nine, it puts us in the driving seat for what to do next, get the popcorn, going to be fun watching News Ltd squirm!

 

[DiegoNT]

Depends on of there is any serious competition for the other games. Fox could offer $200mill. What are the NRL going to do, turn down that sort of money? Of course if there is someone else interested it changes the game but if not then Fox will offer what they think it is now worth to them, which is considerably less than in the last deal imo.

Well nrl already has close to a billion already guaranteed. So if your scenario plays out the nrl will get close to what they already, but with more games live free to air, greater control of the draw and they've manages to clean up the origin period. Even in your worst case scenario the nrl still comes out ahead. But in this scenario fox really runs the risk of losing subscribers on mass, with 4 games already live on fta, and the remaining 4 games not exactly at the best time slots.

 

[Perth Red]

absolutely, from a $ point of view the NRL wins all hands up with this deal regardless of what Fox do, stay at home fans win as well with 4 fta live games across 4 nights. Fans who want to go to games and fans desperate for expansion, have to wait and see if any benefits role out from the deal for them.

Only real downside so far is Ch9 keep the rights and they are terrible at presenting the game. That aside it is great deal so far for NRL.

 

[CowboyFuriousFury]

For a long time, TV rights have been undersold and sold for cheap throughout the decades as a result the NRL didn't have the financial stability to grow the game properly. Now the NRL is finally sticking it to FOX/9 by getting what there truly worth instead of being duded time and time again.

 

[Desert Qlder]

they would have struggled to get what they have from 9 going to tender, it's an unbelievable number, that is no doubt inclusive of a premium for not going to tender. Most analysts had only expected $600-700m for FTA.

There's still plenty left on the bone for fox, 8 live games HD, ad free, those watching super saturday will unlikely change to FTA for the 7.30 game. Every week there's bound to be blockbuster games on fox, the draw can't predict form, lik with carlton destroying the AFL on Friday nights. The trick for fox is distinguishing itself from FTA, they do that by selling it as a package with an NRL channel, but let's face it, it's always been a premium service, if people are paying it now they will still pay it in two years time for 8 games.

By all accounts the deal Nine laid on the table took the NRL negotiators by surprise for its amount. Not only were they paying for the rights but also to keep other bidders out of the race.

Chalk this up to the success of negotiating the end of first and last rights during the last deal. So many overlooked the importance of this at the time but we now have reaped the rewards a mere three years later with this triumphant deal.

In many ways, this will force Fox to elevate its coverage of Rugby League with a dedicated channel. They will need to differentiate themselves substantially from Nine and can only do this with better resourced content like analytical shows, replays of English Super League, Qld and NSW Cup as well as the current cohort of shows like Matty Johns, Sterlo. It has the potential to be a superb offering for the Rugby League fan.

I can't overstate how brilliant this performance was. We wil end up with a massive dollar amount and better coverage than we have ever seen.

Another thought that occurs to me is that Rupert could put shed loads of money into rugby union (Super Rugby AND the Australian Championship that follows it) and try to undermine RL by headhunting talent to the other code.

I have no love for Murdoch and his business methods, but he didn't build a global empire by picking duds like Union.

 

[Burwood]

Channel 9 may have no control over the draw, but what's to say that Foxtel won't negotiate some control into their deal? What would happen if they offered crazy money to have every second Broncos game?

 

[gUt]

Another thought that occurs to me is that Rupert could put shed loads of money into rugby union (Super Rugby AND the Australian Championship that follows it) and try to undermine RL by headhunting talent to the other code.

:lol: that would be awesome, the problem is they will still be playing a god awful sport that no one cares about.

 

[whall15]

Depends on of there is any serious competition for the other games. Fox could offer $200mill. What are the NRL going to do, turn down that sort of money? Of course if there is someone else interested it changes the game but if not then Fox will offer what they think it is now worth to them, which is considerably less than in the last deal imo.

If the Nine rights aren't exclusive I could see Seven beating that.

You could end up with something like:

Thursday 8pm - Nine
Friday 8pm - Nine
Saturday 2pm - Seven
Saturday 4pm - Seven
Saturday 7pm - Nine
Sunday 2pm - Seven
Sunday 4pm - Nine
Sunday 7pm - 7Mate

Actually with the amount of money in the bag from Nine, I would prefer they do that over Fox.

 

[insert.pause]

The power is with the content holders, fox can't lowball the NRL because they need us more than the NRL needs them, Fox are just going to have to bend over and take it.

 

[Hello, I'm The Doctor]

That would be good business, not.. The NRL want at least $1.7B and giving away the remaining for next to nothing would be an absolute disaster.

Its like playing poker. THey can either play it safe and take a lowball Fox offer OR they can go all or nothing as stare down the media ampire that has been undervaluing their foundational product for 20 years.

Give reports from the last rights deal (the ARLC was genuinely looking at 8 FTA games if FOX didnt stump up) it reckon the latter is more likely.

And, as has been said numerous times, Fox has more to loss in that situation than the NRL...

 

[Captain Apollo]

If the Nine rights aren't exclusive I could see Seven beating that.

You could end up with something like:

Thursday 8pm - Nine
Friday 8pm - Nine
Saturday 2pm - Seven
Saturday 4pm - Seven
Saturday 7pm - Nine
Sunday 2pm - Seven
Sunday 4pm - Nine
Sunday 7pm - 7Mate

Actually with the amount of money in the bag from Nine, I would prefer they do that over Fox.

Problem with the 2pm and 4pm Saturday time slots in your proposal? That is when Channel 7 televises AFL. I don't know if the AFL TV deal stipulates it must be on the main channel or not, so it may not be possible.

 

[Hello, I'm The Doctor]

Another thought that occurs to me is that Rupert could put shed loads of money into rugby union (Super Rugby AND the Australian Championship that follows it) and try to undermine RL by headhunting talent to the other code.

They already tried this in Super Rugby (its not a coincidence it was founded the same year as Super League). It would never work and they would haemorrhage money...

 

[BuffaloRules]

Problem with the 2pm and 4pm Saturday time slots in your proposal? That is when Channel 7 televises AFL. I don't know if the AFL TV deal stipulates it must be on the main channel or not, so it may not be possible.

I could see 7 being groomed for the Sunday night prime time...

No clash there...

10 could pick up the others...

Also ... The "main channel" argument is not worth anything...

7 shows the AFL now on 7mate in NSW and QLD so they could slot in NRL on the main station