I don't think it requires a big population centre to get a decent crowd. What's Townsville? Canberra?
You need 15 k at the stadium but the tv numbers are what matters. Another NZ team will certainly double the intrest of the NRL in NZ
Where's the money going to come from to support a second NZ team?
It cannot be in Auckland because there's just not enough interest in the city to support two teams. The Warriors get about 16k, which is great in an RU mad country, but it's not strong enough to warrant a second team in Auckland. Outside of Auckland there probably isn't a market with enough people and corporate sponsorship to cover a professional RL team in an RU mad country.
The ARLC will choose the bid that is least likely to become insolvent. I'm not sure that bid will come from NZ. Perth is a very rich city, so it wouldn't surprise me if it came from there. The only other city that can provide the money to survive and thrive is Brisbane, but the three other clubs in SEQ won't want a fourth stepping on their toes any time soon. It would be a huge gamble to put another team in Brisbane before 2033 as it could kill the Dolphins and Bris3.
Long-term I'd like to see three teams in NZ, but for that to happen we'll need an ARLC that's willing to support NZ 2 and 3 for at least 10 to 15 years. There's no way the 16 current Australian clubs, QRL, NSWRL and RLPA will let the ARLC leave money aside for NZ 2 and NZ 3. Self-interest always wins in RL. We're lucky News Ltd won the Super League War as it led to them funding the Storm until 2012. Their exit from the game in 2012 came with the guarantee that the ARLC would fund the Storm until 2017. Our so-called independent commission is run by the clubs, RLPA, QRL and NSW.