Realistically I'd say we need to win all 3 games anyway if we want that first week home semi.
I can see the Cows winning against Penrith at home with Penrith probably resting players.
So unless you are expecting a miracle from the Warriors, Souths is the only game I see the Cows losing or likely to lose as i think their forward pack and Latrell could cause the Cows a bit of damage.
F/A we won't bridge the gap. Dogs game will be closer than we all think as they've improved and are looking to finish the year on a high note.
Newcastle are probably somewhat ripe but again, last game at home you'd think they'd dig in a bit for their fans who show up all year round.