Danish
Referee
- Messages
- 31,974
miguel de cervantes said:Australia was estimated to have a touch over 10 million televisions in 2003. Let's assume that the average audience for one television is 3.
No doubt a ratio similiar to this is used when estimating the 3 billion viewer figure, but it has no weight on the Australian ratings mentioned, given they were official ratings collected by OzTam and co.
miguel de cervantes said:If 30 million people in Australia tuned into the last world cup of union (as quoted above in this thread), this means every television in Australia was tuned into one game throughout the tournament. More realistically, we can say that an average of 1/10th of the nation's televisions were tuned into 10 games throughout the tournament - ie 1 million televisions and 3 million viewers Australia wide for each game.
Considering the final, which was by far the most attractive game of the tournament, peaked with a national audience of 4.34 million (
http://www.rwc2003.irb.com/EN/Tournament/News/md2411presser.htm) already this seems over generous. Even Bledisloe Cup games normally draw a national audience of around 500k (http://forums.leagueunlimited.com/showthread.php?p=2361348&highlight=bledisloe+cup#post2361348)
Your calculations are quite humourous...
There were 48 games in the world cup, not 10. Each game would have had to average around 645,000 viewers (31,000,000 / 48). Or, if you want to use your "3 viewers per TV" rule, only 215,000 TVs tuned in per game out of a possible 10 million.
Seems a bit more feasable, no?
Come to think of it..... given that we know that 4 million people were tuned in to the final, then those figures can be reduced even further.
miguel de cervantes said:If we estimate the average national audience over the duration of the tournament to be a hefty 1 million...
....... we would have had 48,000,000 viewers rather than the estimated 31,000,000.
miguel de cervantes said:this requires an average of 333k televisions tuned into on average 30 games of the tournament to bring up the 30 million audience figure. I don't know about you but I didn't watch 30 games of the 2003 XV WC and I don't know anyone who would or could, so not only do the audience estimates seem generous (a look at 2003 television ratings could determine the actual audience average. Was it around 1 million?), but the average games per television ratio seems outlandish.
You ARE aware there were 48 games right? As I have already stated, we only require a national audience averaging 645,000 per game to reach the estimated total viewers.
On top of that we had 8 finals games all rating well in excess of 1 million and a final rating over 4 million. So even that figure would be substantially less.
miguel de cervantes said:Thus, the only way to make these figures more sensible is to increase the average ratio of viewers per television for each game. Union must consider an average of 3 viewers per television for union broadcasts in Australia an underestimate. But wait, how can this be possible if there are 10 million televisions in a country of 20 million people, ie with a nominal ratio of 2 to 1?
Are you genuinely asking how it can be possible to have a viewer-to-tv ratio of greater than 2-1 simply because there are 20,000,000 people in Oz compared to 10,000,000 televisions?
miguel de cervantes said:Only if the games were heavily watched in pubs, clubs etc. live sites or at BBQs as union representatives often claim. The problem is the distribution of televisions around the country is presumedly pretty homogenious, and every person that goes out to watch a game at one of these places is likely to be abandoning at least one television at their home. Thus while the ratio of viewers to each television at the public location climbs, either
(a) the ratio must fall back home and overall the average ratio remains intact. Of course this point only applies if the televisions back at home were left switched onto the rugby. This argument thus applies if dad goes to the pub to watch the game with his mates whilst the family stays home to watch. All in all the ratio reamains the same.
or (b) the number of televisions tuned into the game falls as you switch the television off at home or those remaining watch something else.
In summary, in order to increase the ratio of viewers to each television, the number of televisions tuned into the broadcast must fall and the number of rugby congregations must rise.
As far as I am aware, because of obvious accuracy issues in regards to audience demographics, the TAM ratings system takes all its samples from televisions in homes, not in pubs, clubs etc. Thus the TV audience figures mentioned above don't take into account pubs, clubs and livesites. They only account for family homes and so the only possibility left to increase the number of rugby congregations and hence the viewer ratio is through family BBQs (or whatever).
Seems you have got a handle on how more than 2 people can be watching the same TV at one time, thank christ.
miguel de cervantes said:Thinking back a bit, we showed that the viewer per TV estimate of 3 to 1 for each game seems a little too low to produce realistic average ratings and realistic number of games watched. And can you realistically say that on average all 333k televisions showing each of the on average 30 rugby games had on average at least one out-of-household guest? That gives us 9,990,000 rugby BBQs held Australia wide during the world cup assuming each BBQ covered only one game. That's a lot of sausage. Did almost every second Australian attend a rugby BBQ during the world cup? I didn't go to any rugby union BBQs during the 2003 XV WC.
As you can see the Australian figures don't really add up.
Again, your maths skills are just astounding...
You are again using your "brilliant" 1,000,000 viewers per game rule (which I am still scratching my head about). Please, explain again, why do 1,000,000 people need to be watching each of the 48 games to give us a total of 31,000,000 viewers??
And where this BBQ argument came into it I have no idea.
Just as a matter of interest, below are a list of the top rating TV programmes for 2003.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_television_ratings_for_2003
As you can see, the World Cup features prominently, with more than 14 million viewers tuning in to a mere 5 world cup broadcasts (the final is doubled up in position 1 and 6, so I did not take into account the 6th placed figures). 2 of which were the opening and closing ceremonies.
Leaving us with a mere 16,000,000 viewers to spread acros another 45 games, including 2 Australian finals, 3 Australian group games, and 6 finals games not featuring Australia, but including the likes of England, South Africa and NZ (all with massive expat populations in Oz).
Tell me again why the Australian figures don't add up??
miguel de cervantes said:This is probably about right. Please don't claim that they are all interested in it or even know that it is occuring though. If we do take these Australian 2003 figures as reasonable, one must consider that
- ALL games were obviously broadcast at acceptable viewing times for Australians.
- Compared to other countries, Australia would have a high(er) percentage of it's population, due to fact that Australians are generally rugby aware and particularly during the world cup bonanza, interested in and willing to watch games.
- Australians like to watch sport
1) people in england, France, South Africa and NZ would not bother tuning in to watch their teams because they are on at unreasonable times? We'll see how this weekends final rates in Oz to see if this point holds any water
2) Check out how many of us got involved in the Soccer world cup. Soccer is a 5th string competition which had next to no folllwing prior to making the world cup, and it got the best ratings by far last year. Obviously Union isn't going to have the same effect, but people tend to tune in when their country makes it unexpectedly to the world stage.
3) you assume that Australia loves sport more than any other country, which is simply bullsh*t.
miguel de cervantes said:These three facts combined would lead one to expect that Australia would have had the highest TV viewing per capita in the tournament in the world. Taking the dubious figure of 30 million out of 20 million inhabitants, injecting this apparent Australian rugby fervour into every other rugby represented country in the cup gives a total viewing audience of 1.5 billion.
The 3 OPINIONS you stated may point to australia having one of the highest television ratings in the world for the 2003 world cup.
However, I would suggest that England, France, South Africa, Argentina would equal us, and NZ would most certainly have a much higher ratio than us.
If you don't believe me about Argentina, have a read as to what lengths they are going to at the moment to ensure their people can watch the Pumas without a worry. Soccer games are being moved and/or delayed so that they dont overlap with the broadcast.
miguel de cervantes said:This is what really bugs me. It just doesn't make sense. It reminds me of several reports released a while back claiming that a dictator, admittedly a nefarious character, possessed stockpiles of nasty weapons and was very close to unleashing them upon the world. The reports were sanctioned by some very big names on the world stage, so big that many people barely hesitated when deciding they were true, and never really questioned their validity. Many years later and these claims have all but been shown to be completely false and many now suspect they were fabricated in order to benefit some of the original players in the grand illusion.
This is exactly what union is doing. Don't swallow it. If all the business partners of the cup want to throw their money away that is their problem. But I don't like to be bullsh*tted to.
No doubt 3 billion is a bit of a hard figure to stomach. However it certainly isn't out of the question either.
Australia had each TV tuned in to 3 games on average for the world cup. You said yourself there is 1 billion TVs in the nations with an interest in Union. If they did the same then 3 billion is reached.