Parramatta Stats Thread

[the phantom menace]

 

[hineyrulz]

Its a trap @Poupou Escobar. George Michelyrulz will be there waiting...

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Got a pretty sweet statistic for youse:

Merkins	Line breaks	Tackle breaks	LB per TB
Souths	136	741	0.184
Parramatta	129	730	0.177
New Zealand	134	791	0.169
Manly	127	760	0.167
Redcliffe	124	743	0.167
Cronulla	142	870	0.163
North QLD	122	790	0.154
Melbourne	124	835	0.149
Easts	118	802	0.147
Gold Coast	124	846	0.147
Brisbane	139	958	0.145
Newcastle	142	1042	0.136
Canterbury	97	719	0.135
Canberra	99	748	0.132
St George	104	786	0.132
Penrith	129	1042	0.124
Wests	99	808	0.123

 

[Chipmunk]

Got a pretty sweet statistic for youse:

Merkins	Line breaks	Tackle breaks	LB per TB
Souths	136	741	0.184
Parramatta	129	730	0.177
New Zealand	134	791	0.169
Manly	127	760	0.167
Redcliffe	124	743	0.167
Cronulla	142	870	0.163
North QLD	122	790	0.154
Melbourne	124	835	0.149
Easts	118	802	0.147
Gold Coast	124	846	0.147
Brisbane	139	958	0.145
Newcastle	142	1042	0.136
Canterbury	97	719	0.135
Canberra	99	748	0.132
St George	104	786	0.132
Penrith	129	1042	0.124
Wests	99	808	0.123

Given the minor premiers are second last, and five of the highest 8 on the list didn't make the Top 8, then Line Breaks per Tackle Breaks is no indicator or any kind of success?

 

[Gronk]

OK I need a TLDR from @Poupou Escobar on this one.

The Eye Test's advanced statistic leaders for NRL season 2023 - The Rugby League Eye Test

The long 27 round slog that was the NRL 2023 season has finally concluded, which means we can take a look at which players topped the charts for the Eye Test’s suite of advanced statistics. If you’re a recent visitor to the Eye Test, I would recommend checking out the explainers on of them to...

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Given the minor premiers are second last, and five of the highest 8 on the list didn't make the Top 8, then Line Breaks per Tackle Breaks is no indicator or any kind of success?

Wins are the only indicator of success. But that requires zero analysis and tells us nothing about what's going on under the hood (bonnet). Things like tackle breaks and line breaks are indicators of attacking talent and teamwork. They break down some of the reasons for success, at least in attack. Obviously they say nothing about defence, which needs to be investigated with different statistical categories.

It would be fairly trite to just say wins are all that matter, but if that was the case clubs wouldn't waste so much money on statistical analysis. Anyone can just look at the win/loss table. It's not very insightful.

I personally think tackle breaks is an indicator of playing talent. Converting tackle breaks to line breaks might (or might not) say something about doing the best with the talent a team has. It might also just indicate a different type of playing talent.

 

[Chipmunk]

Wins are the only indicator of success. But that requires zero analysis and tells us nothing about what's going on under the hood (bonnet). Things like tackle breaks and line breaks are indicators of attacking talent and teamwork. They break down some of the reasons for success, at least in attack. Obviously they say nothing about defence, which needs to be investigated with different statistical categories.

It would be fairly trite to just say wins are all that matter, but if that was the case clubs wouldn't waste so much money on statistical analysis. Anyone can just look at the win/loss table. It's not very insightful.

I personally think tackle breaks is an indicator of playing talent. Converting tackle breaks to line breaks might (or might not) say something about doing the best with the talent a team has.

But it is fair to say that just because you have a good Line Break to Tackle Break ratio, it does not mean that you are more likely to win matches? Given the position of Penrith on the table provided I would say that it is no indicator at all of the chances of winning a game.

The statistics that show whether you're likely to win or lose a game as a result of that statistic are more relevant than ones that don't really have much correlation to whether you're more likely or not to win or lose a game.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

OK I need a TLDR from @Poupou Escobar on this one.

The Eye Test's advanced statistic leaders for NRL season 2023 - The Rugby League Eye Test

The long 27 round slog that was the NRL 2023 season has finally concluded, which means we can take a look at which players topped the charts for the Eye Test’s suite of advanced statistics. If you’re a recent visitor to the Eye Test, I would recommend checking out the explainers on of them to...

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com

I haven't got a clue what that merkin is talking about. He is a troll and also circular logic.

 

[eels_fan]

I personally think tackle breaks is an indicator of playing talent. Converting tackle breaks to line breaks might (or might not) say something about doing the best with the talent a team has. It might also just indicate a different type of playing talent.

Whilst it's positive that we convert tackle breaks to full line breaks, the biggest issue in that stat is the fact we made the second least amount of tackle breaks in comp (only Bulldogs were worse) which shows a complete lack of power and explosiveness by our back 5 which typically are the dominant tackle breakers in a team. If we have the skill to convert tackle breaks to line breaks, then we need to create a gameplan that harnesses that and increases tackle breaks.

I'd be keen to see our Line Break to Try ratio and see where that sits. Are we taking advantage of line breaks? Because when i try to think back on this year, most of my memory of our line breaks involves the play breaking down by a stupid next tackle hit up by a forward due to poor dummy-half vision not reading the numbers and playing to the right man or side of the ruck.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

But it is fair to say that just because you have a good Line Break to Tackle Break ratio, it does not mean that you are more likely to win matches? Given the position of Penrith on the table provided I would say that it is no indicator at all of the chances of winning a game.

The statistics that show whether you're likely to win or lose a game as a result of that statistic are more relevant than ones that don't really have much correlation to whether you're more likely or not to win or lose a game.

Well for starters this doesn't even look at defence. Does that mean no statistic matters unless it looks at both attack and defence? You are missing the point of analysis if you believe you can't break a problem down because it loses sight of the big picture. It is focusing on the big picture that limits our understanding of cause and effect.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I'd be keen to see our Line Break to Try ratio and see where that sits.

I don't think it would be hard to work that out. But for the record, we are sixth for tries and equal sixth for line breaks.

 

[Twizzle]

Wins are the only indicator of success.

last year you said it was points difference

 

[the phantom menace]

Given the minor premiers are second last, and five of the highest 8 on the list didn't make the Top 8, then Line Breaks per Tackle Breaks is no indicator or any kind of success?

Yes, converting tackle breaks into line breaks clearly means sweet f**k all in the scheme of things.

 

[the phantom menace]

OK I need a TLDR from @Poupou Escobar on this one.

The Eye Test's advanced statistic leaders for NRL season 2023 - The Rugby League Eye Test

The long 27 round slog that was the NRL 2023 season has finally concluded, which means we can take a look at which players topped the charts for the Eye Test’s suite of advanced statistics. If you’re a recent visitor to the Eye Test, I would recommend checking out the explainers on of them to...

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com

All I took away from it was that one graph seems to indicate Reed Mahoney has the sixth best (worst) "negative contribution rating"

 

[the phantom menace]

And Waqa Blake had the 9th worst error rate/80mins in the comp... and Sivo the 12th worst

 

[Poupou Escobar]

last year you said it was points difference

Misrepresent me and you’re getting blocked, merkin

Points differential represents quality. The difference between that and success (measured by wins) is the luck factor

 

[Gary Gutful]

Got a pretty sweet statistic for youse:

Merkins	Line breaks	Tackle breaks	LB per TB
Souths	136	741	0.184
Parramatta	129	730	0.177
New Zealand	134	791	0.169
Manly	127	760	0.167
Redcliffe	124	743	0.167
Cronulla	142	870	0.163
North QLD	122	790	0.154
Melbourne	124	835	0.149
Easts	118	802	0.147
Gold Coast	124	846	0.147
Brisbane	139	958	0.145
Newcastle	142	1042	0.136
Canterbury	97	719	0.135
Canberra	99	748	0.132
St George	104	786	0.132
Penrith	129	1042	0.124
Wests	99	808	0.123

What the f**k does this even mean, FFS?!!?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

What the f**k does this even mean, FFS?!!?

I’m here to give you the right questions, not the right answers. Each man needs to decide those for himself, like the Mona Lisa.

 

[the phantom menace]

Drivel like this calls for a pooper scooper...

 

[Gary Gutful]

I’m here to give you the right questions, not the right answers. Each man needs to decide those for himself, like the Mona Lisa.

FFS.