Parramatta Stats Thread

[Poupou Escobar]

I took a look at the actual page from the tweet here - https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/...s-possession-ponzi-is-becoming-unsustainable/

This is a serious comprehensive analysis of how we're going, and why we're going the way we are, and to be honest I can't say that I disagree with any of it, and I think it's what most of us can all see.

Everyone here should take a read.

Right. We need to complete our sets, like last year. Wet might rely on possession but claiming that as a negative is like saying Penrith rely on their outside backs to make metres, or Melbourne are dependent on Grant and Munster to create something out of nothing.

 

[the phantom menace]

Right. We need to complete our sets, like last year. Wet might rely on possession but claiming that as a negative is like saying Penrith rely on their outside backs to make metres, or Melbourne are dependent on Grant and Munster to create something out of nothing.

So you didn't read the full article then...

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Now can you see why your selective statty fluff in various threads arguing the complete opposite is the subject of ridicule?

I’m just not good at explaining nuance to such a ‘broad’ audience. It’s why I don’t run a website. This bloke really dumbs it down well. We need more people like him in rugby league journalism.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

So you didn't read the full article then...

Sounds like you might’ve read the wrong one. Did you click the right link?

 

[the phantom menace]

I’m just not good at explaining nuance to such a ‘broad’ audience. It’s why I don’t run a website. This bloke really dumbs it down well. We need more people like him in rugby league journalism.

You should learn more from him - like only posting relevant stats that support the opinion you're putting forward. And watching the games more closely as they're played, to have some clue about what opinion to put forward in the first place...

I wouldn't call doing what he'd posted dumbing it down, I'd call it really smart - and something you could aspire to

 

[the phantom menace]

Sounds like you might’ve read the wrong one. Did you click the right link?

Sounds like you have some comprehension or analysis troubles then, to still be attempting to argue the opposite in the face of convincing and relevant stats (which you yourself have said can't be argued with)?

 

[the phantom menace]

Right. We need to complete our sets, like last year. Wet might rely on possession but claiming that as a negative is like saying Penrith rely on their outside backs to make metres, or Melbourne are dependent on Grant and Munster to create something out of nothing.

This is the bit that showed you didn't read or understand the smart person's analysis of the relevant data they presented...

 

[Poupou Escobar]

He made clear that controlling possession is how we won games last year. The key to this is completing sets, which we are doing poorly this year. Ergo, we are not controlling possession.

Every other statistic is downstream of this one. Of course our defensive weaknesses are being exposed more often the more defence we do. That was always the case. The author made clear that the possession Ponzi scheme is central to our success. Without controlling the ball we won’t succeed.

What did you think it said? In order to win, Brad Arthur needs to not rely on ball control? We would need a complete roster overhaul for that to happen. Not a change in tactics.

 

[Suitman]

I’m just not good at explaining nuance to such a ‘broad’ audience.

No, you are not. You just think you are.

 

[the phantom menace]

Just go back and read what the article says - not paraphrase and try and fit it to your own dodgy or controversy-seeking opinions.

Read right down to the bits about Hodgson and BA being slow to make the changes that are required - then I'll know you've actually read it!

And given you have comprehension problems, maybe you should print it out and take it to a grown up to read each paragraph aloud to you, so you have a chance to ask any questions .

Or... you could stop being a contrary clown, and just talk footy like normal fans, without thinking your shit doesn't stink and getting all flustered when people show your stats and opinions up for what they are?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

No, you are not.

lol no I’m not!!!

 

[the phantom menace]

So you should stop trying, and leave it to the experts like the guy who wrote that: https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/...s-possession-ponzi-is-becoming-unsustainable/

 

[Gronk]

I provided the summary, you'll have to go and read it for yourself.

FFS, OK I’ll have a go. A TLDR stab in the dark.

A bunch of teams, most notably the Eels and Storm, got their squads analled by the new 18th team and a few shit teams. It came down to recruiting and adjustment to see how they would cope. As it turned out, the 2023 draw meant that the Eels was up against it. They saw themselves playing all of the top rated teams in the first 1/3 of the draw who were often rested after a bye. So it was either sink or swim.

As it turned out the result was sink. The better NRL teams were able to maintain good form and the Eels struggled. They were unable to field their best 17 until well past Round 6 and their depth and recruitment to fill those crucial losses in the roster was found wanting. Most telling was the loss of steel and resolve up the middle.

The stats provided by the writer painted picture of a team on their heels when not in good possession % and that was evident on Friday.

Cause: failure to counter losses in roster with adequate replacements and a shit draw.

————8<————-

I also asked Gloria from ChatGPT to summarise the Author’s premise and she said….

 

[Gary Gutful]

Brilliant article

Was wondering how long it would be until someone found your website. I wish you’d do more analysis on the eels mate.

 

[Enamoured Eel]

This is good gear, albeit upsetting reading. It probably indicates we need to be more expansive (whilst still playing tough). It’s even more pertinent with Reg out indefinitely.

https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/...s-possession-ponzi-is-becoming-unsustainable/

 

[King-Gutho94]

I think we have hit a mini rebuild phase. After getting close maybe a year to re-load before going again next year.

The key will be to hold our own and not fall off a cliff so we have don't have to do a major re-build which is a 6-7 year process to challenge again. Keeping the salary cap under control is vital to that.

Finals are still reachable and tbh i would probably take a week 2 exit with a finals win right now.

We have Doorey, Hopgood, Greig, Dunster, Russell, Hands who have all played less then 30 FG games that's a third of of our team.

I haven't even included Penisini in that list who is still 20.

So that leads to inconsistency. I think all of them are contracted for 2024 except Greig so all those players should be better this time next year.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I also asked Gloria from ChatGPT to summarise the Author’s premise and she said….View attachment 73117

ChatGPT needs to learn some reading comprehension ffs. An expert I know is convinced the key points of the article are criticism of Hodgson and the coach. dId tHe Ai ReAd AlL tHe WaY tO tHe EnD???

 

[Poupou Escobar]

It probably indicates we need to be more expansive

Might it be implying we need to complete our sets and make sure our expensive kicker gets as many kicks as possible?

 

[Eelementary]

So you should stop trying, and leave it to the experts like the guy who wrote that: https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/...s-possession-ponzi-is-becoming-unsustainable/

I'm not sure I could call him an expert - he's made a lot of pretty graphs, and came up with some cool statistics, but he's been unable to extrapolate the data to come up to a satisfying conclusion, imo.

He says one of our weakness is we don't make enough metres per run - we'll, the Raiders make 0.4 m per run more than we do, and are below us.

Similarly, the Dolphins, and Titans, both allow more metres per run than we do, and sit above us.

He says that we start our sets too deep in our own half - yet the Bunnies, sitting comfortably in fourth place, offering similar statistics to what we dish up.

He went to a lot of effort to create those graphs, and it was n interesting read - but I just don't think he connected the dots as eloquently as he thinks he did, when it comes to pinpointing why we are struggling; bit of a classic "overwhelm people with useless stats, and don't draw a statistically valid correlation between them" sort of approach.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I feel personally attacked ffs