Penrith's draw this year...

[GongPanther]

To make the final 8,the average points needed since the year 2000 is around 28 with 24 being the least and 30 the most.

28 points makes up 7 seasons in making the final 8.

So going by this rule of thumb,and with the hard run home that we have,we should make the 8 comfortably,and I'd be happy with just that being that we have come a long way in such a short time.

I'm sure that we will be hardened for battle when we have had our fair share of playing against the more fancied opponents which will have us in good stead by the time the finals come around.

But at the moment,I'm enjoying the ride just like the other surprise packets like Parramatta are. (if anyone cares to look,I tipped them at the start of the year to make the eight) If you don't,the season will pass by you like you signaled a bus that didn't stop for you,and you're left wondering what the hell happened.

 

[Big Mick]

We don't even rate ourselves, mate. But we aren't the ones who started the thread, nor have we been bragging about the position we are in.

Did any Panthers fan start a thread crying when the Dragons were top of the table? Did any Panthers fan start a thread crying when the Titans were top of the table? Did any Panthers fan start a thread about the Bulldogs crying when they were top of the table?

(I hope no Panthers fan did any of that, because it would kind of ruin my argument)

Agree 100%.

Said the same thing earlier in the thread as well.

No one is crying nobody rates us.

Just other people talking crap and downplaying the run.

Penrith have a tougher draw in the run home and IMO we'll drop down the ladder to around 4th/5th once all is said and done.

 

[franklin2323]

Agree 100%.

Said the same thing earlier in the thread as well.

No one is crying nobody rates us.

Just other people talking crap and downplaying the run.

Penrith have a tougher draw in the run home and IMO we'll drop down the ladder to around 4th/5th once all is said and done.

Yep. I have us pencilled in as losing in NZ, our record v Tigers is dreadful so will lose that I have no doubt. We should win our home games still to come. The Dragons and 1 of Bulldogs, Manly or Roosters.

Giving us around 34 points where that put us isn't a concern it's the finals. Similar improvement next year should have us pushing a GF spot. Though keep the butthurt up guys it's great

 

[billypilgrimnz]

I hate the bloody Tigers. We always play like shit against them.

 

[TheFrog]

Yep. I have us pencilled in as losing in NZ, our record v Tigers is dreadful so will lose that I have no doubt. We should win our home games still to come. The Dragons and 1 of Bulldogs, Manly or Roosters.

Giving us around 34 points where that put us isn't a concern it's the finals. Similar improvement next year should have us pushing a GF spot. Though keep the butthurt up guys it's great

We'll beat the Tigers. They'll be without Farah. I'm more worried about the next game, it is definitely a danger. Most years 34 gets you 4th place.

 

[franklin2323]

We'll beat the Tigers. They'll be without Farah. I'm more worried about the next game, it is definitely a danger. Most years 34 gets you 4th place.

Didn't he not play last year when we played them at home? besides 1 away win gets us the fringe of top 4. Anything more then that is a bonus

 

[TheFrog]

Didn't he not play last year when we played them at home? besides 1 away win gets us the fringe of top 4. Anything more then that is a bonus

I'm not sure I was out of the country then. That's the game we were told we couldn't play Moylan. Anyway this is a different year and I think a better side.

Yep. You can count on 1 hand the amount of good performances we have had. Aside from the Parra game our defence has been great and keeps us in with a chance

You remember 1991? All that year there was the feeling in the press and among supporters that the team wasn't playing all that well even though they were winning games and won the minor premiership by 6 points. It was felt they were just doing enough. Now THAT was a champion team. If we've had 5 good performances, then we've won 4 games with less than good performances, maybe 5 because the Storm loss is regarded by most as one of our better efforts.

 

[franklin2323]

You remember 1991? All that year there was the feeling in the press and among supporters that the team wasn't playing all that well even though they were winning games and won the minor premiership by 6 points. It was felt they were just doing enough. Now THAT was a champion team. If we've had 5 good performances, then we've won 4 games with less than good performances, maybe 5 because the Storm loss is regarded by most as one of our better efforts.

I was too young but it wouldn't surprise me.
Every game we have had great defence that's what you need to not fade away. Souths scored 3 tries 2 off our errors. Bulldogs and Storm only scored 3 tries also. Our attack was the concern it looks to of changed but Roosters game will show where that's really at.

 

[billypilgrimnz]

I think we are jumping ahead of ourselves; the Warriors game will be very difficult. I can easily see us losing.

 

[franklin2323]

I think we are jumping ahead of ourselves; the Warriors game will be very difficult. I can easily see us losing.

I said we will lose that game

 

[umina panther]

We'll do the Warriors

 

[Canard]

To make the final 8,the average points needed since the year 2000 is around 28 with 24 being the least and 30 the most.

28 points makes up 7 seasons in making the final 8.

So going by this rule of thumb,and with the hard run home that we have,we should make the 8 comfortably,and I'd be happy with just that being that we have come a long way in such a short time.

It would almost be unprecedented after 13 rounds for the team that was placed 1st (albeit after playing 12 games) to not make the 8, surely the aim is the top 4 at this stage?

 

[TheFrog]

It would almost be unprecedented after 13 rounds for the team that was placed 1st (albeit after playing 12 games) to not make the 8, surely the aim is the top 4 at this stage?

Not quite. This same team led the comp in 1988 with 6 rounds left and ended up being eliminated in a play off for 5th (against a team that made the GF). It wasn't like they completely collapsed either, they won 3 of the last 6.

In 1988 15 wins from 22 games wasn't enough. This is maybe why some of our supporters are being so conservative now. Personally, I think we'll make the Top 4 comfortably.

 

[no name]

It would almost be unprecedented after 13 rounds for the team that was placed 1st (albeit after playing 12 games) to not make the 8, surely the aim is the top 4 at this stage?

Not quite leading the comp, but in 2000 the Tigers were 2nd after round 17, missed the finals.

 

[GongPanther]

Watch those that think we don't deserve to be where we are shut their mouths if their team wins their next two games and we lose the next two on the trot.(touch wood)

Then Tommy Smith can start a new thread "Newcastle's draw this year" which would have at least made sense...at least to himself.

 

[Lambretta]

The NRL deliberately massages the draw to ensure teams that finished in the bottom half the year before play lower "ranked" teams or get favourable dates through Origin etc

When the Roosters got the spoon in 2009 we got a much "easier" draw in 2010

This year the Roosters draw has been fairly difficult with no byes during the Origin season etc. This is designed so that our win / loss ratio is as close to other teams to make the comp as even as possible

This is not exclusive to the Roosters or the Panther - all teams get this

However, as others have pointed out, the draw can only effect you so much. Injuries, rep duties and your teams actual efforts have a massive effect as well. Yes Penrith got a slightly "easier" draw, but they've still have to put in the effort to win the games. Something other clubs haven't managed in the past.

Penrith have risen from the lower half of the table while other clubs haven't. For that they should be congratulated not told they have it easy.

 

[umina panther]

Another 2 points I the bag this weekend, just when will the unstoppable Penrith powerhouse be stopped?

 

[KeepingTheFaith]

Another 2 points I the bag this weekend, just when will the unstoppable Penrith powerhouse be stopped?

It'll still be a close game. Just lucky the bye is under strength this week.

 

[jono]

The NRL deliberately massages the draw to ensure teams that finished in the bottom half the year before play lower "ranked" teams or get favourable dates through Origin etc

Really? I know the eels are double wooden spooners and of course every team will be ranked above us , but I don't think we were handed any favours.
SOO 1 before bye after Penrith away (two days later)
SOO 2 before Dogs away after Storm away
SOO 3 before Knights home after Warriors away (three days later)

I will be happy if the eels can win at least three of those games.

 

[franklin2323]

The NRL deliberately massages the draw to ensure teams that finished in the bottom half the year before play lower "ranked" teams or get favourable dates through Origin etc

When the Roosters got the spoon in 2009 we got a much "easier" draw in 2010

This year the Roosters draw has been fairly difficult with no byes during the Origin season etc. This is designed so that our win / loss ratio is as close to other teams to make the comp as even as possible

This is not exclusive to the Roosters or the Panther - all teams get this

However, as others have pointed out, the draw can only effect you so much. Injuries, rep duties and your teams actual efforts have a massive effect as well. Yes Penrith got a slightly "easier" draw, but they've still have to put in the effort to win the games. Something other clubs haven't managed in the past.

Penrith have risen from the lower half of the table while other clubs haven't. For that they should be congratulated not told they have it easy.

Of course makes sense to me. The top teams have origin players so play other top teams out of this time. The like of us, Canberra, NZ don't have many so play each other around this time. Keeps games on TV but doesn't dilute the comp that much