Peter V'landys - New NRL/ARLC Chairman

[Perth Red]

Alot of people seem to be including the Telstra side of it too.

Which is fair on a revenue basis but incorrect when comparing Fox v Fox

Sure it’s mostly educated guess work but the numbers arent even in same ball park is the reality.
we know afl got $570mill cash. We dont know how much of that cash is telstra payment but it’s highly unlikely it’s as high as $50mill. So let’s say min $520mill cash is fta and Paytv.

nrl announced $400mill (?Cash or cash and contra) which included about $5mill radio in the ch9 deal)
So at very best $395mill cash plus whatever ch9 paid since for nrlw and women’s origin, hard to see it being much given ch9 track record,

So for 3 years 25-27 theres probably somewhere around $100mill $120mill a year min cash difference in the tv deals.

we got shafted so badly, and thats not even including the afl clawing back it’s covid reductions in 23&24 whilst we were happy to just write them off!

 

[Wb1234]

personally I’d of rather waited two years for those things and got an extra $150mill a year for the next 5 years! But that’s just me.

Yeh because every other nrl boss was going to add a team in Brisbane and find the money to invest in. Property

 

[Wb1234]

Sure it’s mostly educated guess work but the numbers arent even in same ball park is the reality.
we know afl got $570mill cash. We dont know how much of that cash is telstra payment but it’s highly unlikely it’s as high as $50mill. So let’s say min $520mill cash is fta and Paytv.

nrl announced $400mill (?Cash or cash and contra) which included about $5mill radio in the ch9 deal)
So at very best $395mill cash plus whatever ch9 paid since for nrlw and women’s origin, hard to see it being much given ch9 track record,

So for 3 years 25-27 theres probably somewhere around $100mill $120mill a year min cash difference in the tv deals.

we got shafted so badly, and thats not even including the afl clawing back it’s covid reductions in 23&24 whilst we were happy to just write them off!

Finally
You agreed with me on what the afl tv deal is

520 million cash

we will beat that figure from our current 400 million

 

[Wb1234]

I doubt it’d be a lower offer. I’m sure Perth, brisbane and melbourne would all match ir better what nsw is offering. reality is nrl aren’t moving the gf from Sydney, fan and media blow up would be huge for them, and the nsw govt know it.

Taking into account larger capscity at homebush and the nsw govt paying ten mill no other bod comes close except Mel

 

[Iamback]

personally I’d of rather waited two years for those things and got an extra $150mill a year for the next 5 years! But that’s just me.

Man you come up with some Bullshit.

Who was paying NRL $150m a year if they went the other way?

 

[Iamback]

Sure it’s mostly educated guess work but the numbers arent even in same ball park is the reality.
we know afl got $570mill cash. We dont know how much of that cash is telstra payment but it’s highly unlikely it’s as high as $50mill. So let’s say min $520mill cash is fta and Paytv.

nrl announced $400mill (?Cash or cash and contra) which included about $5mill radio in the ch9 deal)
So at very best $395mill cash plus whatever ch9 paid since for nrlw and women’s origin, hard to see it being much given ch9 track record,

So for 3 years 25-27 theres probably somewhere around $100mill $120mill a year min cash difference in the tv deals.

we got shafted so badly, and thats not even including the afl clawing back it’s covid reductions in 23&24 whilst we were happy to just write them off!

Lets use that $520m as the average.

$3.6b is the AFL total amount over 7 years. You take 20% inflation from that which $720m.

Gives you the deal starting at $411m in 2025

The NRL deal using the same 2% increase is $425m - even if that is cash + contra that still matches with the difference through History. Given the 9 extra rounds across that time and the extra breaks we have discussed.

 

[bad boy bubby]

I would as a one-off to keep the bastards honest.

The Don Chipp Award goes to...

 

[Babyface O'reilly]

I doubt it’d be a lower offer. I’m sure Perth, brisbane and melbourne would all match ir better what nsw is offering. reality is nrl aren’t moving the gf from Sydney, fan and media blow up would be huge for them, and the nsw govt know it.

I think it would be a bigger blow for the government. Media would paint a picture of them being the first government to lose the GF. Picking on politicians is their bread and butter after all.

 

[Perth Red]

Man you come up with some Bullshit.

Who was paying NRL $150m a year if they went the other way?

AFL had 3 bidders. Allegedly one of them was willing to pay $600mill a year.

 

[Perth Red]

Lets use that $520m as the average.

$3.6b is the AFL total amount over 7 years. You take 20% inflation from that which $720m.

Gives you the deal starting at $411m in 2025

The NRL deal using the same 2% increase is $425m - even if that is cash + contra that still matches with the difference through History. Given the 9 extra rounds across that time and the extra breaks we have discussed.

haha thats nonsense, I've shown you the likely cash actuals for '25-'27 for both codes.

 

[Iamback]

haha thats nonsense, I've shown you the likely cash actuals for '25-'27 for both codes.

So what does the AFL deal start at in 2025 then? Remembering the $520m ave you just mentioned includes inflation

 

[Iamback]

AFL had 3 bidders. Allegedly one of them was willing to pay $600mill a year.

Yet AFL didn't take that offer. And NRL was going to?

 

[colly]

Sure it’s mostly educated guess work but the numbers arent even in same ball park is the reality.
we know afl got $570mill cash. We dont know how much of that cash is telstra payment but it’s highly unlikely it’s as high as $50mill. So let’s say min $520mill cash is fta and Paytv.

nrl announced $400mill (?Cash or cash and contra) which included about $5mill radio in the ch9 deal)
So at very best $395mill cash plus whatever ch9 paid since for nrlw and women’s origin, hard to see it being much given ch9 track record,

So for 3 years 25-27 theres probably somewhere around $100mill $120mill a year min cash difference in the tv deals.

we got shafted so badly, and thats not even including the afl clawing back it’s covid reductions in 23&24 whilst we were happy to just write them off!

Why are you quoting a AFL deal that's not even started. It's current two deal is still in play. We will see what happens next week.

 

[Iamback]

Why are you quoting a AFL deal that's not even started. It's current two deal is still in play. We will see what happens next week.

Even still he is using the ave not the starting point to make NRL look worse

 

[Perth Red]

Finally
You agreed with me on what the afl tv deal is

520 million cash

we will beat that figure from our current 400 million

I've always said its likely to be in the $520-550mill cash avg range depending on what cash Telstra is paying.

 

[Perth Red]

So what does the AFL deal start at in 2025 then? Remembering the $520m ave you just mentioned includes inflation

Ive already shown you the likely 7 year cash actual breakdown for afl. Basically take $520 mill in 2028 and take off 2% cumulatively each year before and add 2% each year after.

AFL on a $520mill cash avg
25 $489
26 $499
27 $509
28 $520mill
29 $530
30 $540
31 $551

NRL on a $395mill cash avg
23 $379
24 $387
25 $395mill
26 $403
27 $411

So basically in the 3 years 2025-2027 AFL will conservatively achieve around $300mill more in tv revenue alone.
The NRL would need to achieve a cash avg in the next deal starting 2028 of around $550mill avg over whatever life of deal to better AFL in '28-'31.

 

[Perth Red]

Yet AFL didn't take that offer. And NRL was going to?

because the incumbents offered close enough to it to make AFL happy to take the Fox/7 deal. We dont know what contra amount was in that $600mill offer.
Are you seriously asking if 10/Paramount had been given the opportunity to bid for NRl and had offered us $600mill cash and contra we would have said no and gone with the $395 Vlandys took from Fox/9?

 

[Perth Red]

Why are you quoting a AFL deal that's not even started. It's current two deal is still in play. We will see what happens next week.

Becuase our current deal has a 3 year cross over period with their new deal.

 

[Wb1234]

I've always said it’s likely to be in the $520-550mill cash avg range depending on what cash Telstra is paying.

520 million cash isn’t so good especially if we are at 400 million

 

[Iamback]

Ive already shown you the likely 7 year cash actual breakdown for afl. Basically take $520 mill in 2028 and take off 2% cumulatively each year before and add 2% each year after.

AFL on a $520mill cash avg
25 $489
26 $499
27 $509
28 $520mill
29 $530
30 $540
31 $551

NRL on a $395mill cash avg
23 $379
24 $387
25 $395mill
26 $403
27 $411

So basically in the 3 years 2025-2027 AFL will conservatively achieve around $300mill more in tv revenue alone.
The NRL would need to achieve a cash avg in the next deal starting 2028 of around $550mill avg over whatever life of deal to better AFL in '28-'31.

And the current difference BEFORE that deal starts?