Rd16: Parra v Penrith GAME DAY THREAD @ Bluebet Stadium 2/7/21

[hindy111]

A $16 whisky?

This lockdown is sending me broke ffs. I am drinking Nelson county.

 

[hindy111]

Mate he’s faking it. Panthers don’t want him playing a dead rubber

Haha I agree. A niggle is all. He'd play next weekend.

 

[hindy111]

Same, except I have the central heating going and I'm sipping some of this with pineapple juice and dry ginger ale:

And very cheap gin, obviously.

I have a split air con. When I come home I turn it on and say. Hey baby, keep me warm. And she does. Never fails. I turn her on and she does the rest.

 

[King-Gutho94]

How long was Luai playing on one leg for last night?

Did it in the tackle colliding with opacic when he passed the ball to korosau to score.

Adrenalin probably got him through the last 20 mins.

 

[strider]

I have a split air con. When I come home I turn it on and say. Hey baby, keep me warm. And she does. Never fails. I turn her on and she does the rest.

and then in summer she goes all cold on you .... amirite?

 

[Bandwagon]

I actually think current ladder position is a better measure than the opponent's ladder position at the time because the quality of a team is emergent over the greatest number of games. Measuring at the end of the season would be even better than measuring now.

Ladder position at the time is the current ladder position at that time. So if you believe current ladder position to be a better measure of quality, at the time the games are played, that is the best measure of their quality at that time.

Elsewise the measure of their now current position is no more valuable than their position at any other point in time, be it past or future, and to give any position at any given point in time more value than at any other random time isn't logically consistent.

Even if we assert that as time passes ladder position becomes a more accurate measure, as you do here, then we have to accept that the now current ladder position isn't at all definitive as it's very likely subject to change over the remaining rounds.

All of which ignores that form does not equal quality, and when measuring performance against any particular opposition, we need to account for both.

 

[hindy111]

and then in summer she goes all cold on you .... amirite?

After I get all hot and sweaty.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Ladder position at the time is the current ladder position at that time. So if you believe current ladder position to be a better measure of quality, at the time the games are played, that is the best measure of their quality at that time.

No I mean current ladder position (after 16 rounds) is a better measure of a team's quality than ladder position after fewer rounds. Likewise, ladder after the final round is best of all, due to having a larger sample of games with which to measure the teams against each other. Obviously it's not perfect because some teams play harder teams more or less often, but it's still better than the ladder after round three or whatever.

So while the ladder is indeed likely to change between now and round 25 (or whatever the final round is, I'm on my phone and couldn't be bothered to check) the ladder is surely closer to its final state now than it was at the start of the season.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

This lockdown is sending me broke ffs. I am drinking Nelson county.

You're drinking stuff that has a brand name? Well lah di dah...

 

[Bandwagon]

No I mean current ladder position (after 16 rounds) is a better measure of a team's quality than ladder position after fewer rounds. Likewise, ladder after the final round is best of all, due to having a larger sample of games with which to measure the teams against each other. Obviously it's not perfect because some teams play harder teams more or less often, but it's still better than the ladder after round three or whatever.

So while the ladder is indeed likely to change between now and round 25 (or whatever the final round is, I'm on my phone and couldn't be bothered to check) the ladder is surely closer to its final state now than it was at the start of the season.

Yeah it will be, again though even if we do consider it a reasonable measure of quality, which I don't disagree, it's not a measure of form. I'd argue that's better represented by ladder position in earlier rounds than it is in later rounds, because previous performance creates more statistical noise the further into the season we go. Although in the end either is far from perfect.

For the purpose of the exercise being discussed, surely form is more relevant at the time a game is played than it is averaged over the course of a full season?

 

[Gronk]

I would like to see Blake on the wing too, but Niukore would be badly exposed against the good teams, even without Drown on his inside. Hopefully Penisini is ready for 20+ games next year.

The lads at TCT said recently that BA intended to use Waqa on the wing in the Souths semi last year before we lost Jennings. That was the game were both Sivo and Fergo were busted.

 

[emjaycee]

No I mean current ladder position (after 16 rounds) is a better measure of a team's quality than ladder position after fewer rounds. Likewise, ladder after the final round is best of all, due to having a larger sample of games with which to measure the teams against each other. Obviously it's not perfect because some teams play harder teams more or less often, but it's still better than the ladder after round three or whatever.

So while the ladder is indeed likely to change between now and round 25 (or whatever the final round is, I'm on my phone and couldn't be bothered to check) the ladder is surely closer to its final state now than it was at the start of the season.

Except you are missing Bandwagon's point.

 

[Glenneel]

That pass cost that nothing, Burton hit the post with that attempt, i'd argue the 45m attempted field goal with about 2mins left which led to a 7 tackle set hurt us more. It was a low % play and yet more proof when the heat is on Moses buckles. Which is as shame because his kicking game up till that point was one of the main reasons we were still in the game.

Oh the lot of a Parra supporter. Blame that attempt on our loss, what a cop out. Playing both RCG and Niukore together, both without offloads, severely hindered our attack and once Paulo came on it started to flow. Gutho's 2 brain explosions gifted them 7 points and our poor attack in their red zone, which I'll continually blame our coaches on, is what cost us the game, not Moses's fg attempt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Except you are missing Bandwagon's point.

No I just disagree. Ladder position at any given point of time says almost nothing about form. Manly were running 15th when Trbojevic came back into the team. They were still bottom eight a month later despite smashing a few lesser teams and competing against Penrith.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Oh the lot of a Parra supporter. Blame that attempt on our loss, what a cop out. Playing both RCG and Niukore together, both without offloads, severely hindered our attack and once Paulo came on it started to flow. Gutho's 2 brain explosions gifted them 7 points and our poor attack in their red zone, which I'll continually blame our coaches on, is what cost us the game, not Moses's fg attempt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I blame the loss on Penrith having a better team than us. That's why they were favorites before a ball was kicked, not because of anything that happened during the game.

 

[Gronk]

Oh the lot of a Parra supporter. Blame that attempt on our loss, what a cop out. Playing both RCG and Niukore together, both without offloads, severely hindered our attack and once Paulo came on it started to flow. Gutho's 2 brain explosions gifted them 7 points and our poor attack in their red zone, which I'll continually blame our coaches on, is what cost us the game, not Moses's fg attempt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In conclusion, we lost by a FG against team who are the premiership favs by most, at home where they haven’t lost since July 2019.

Yes, they didn’t have their regular halfback, but history doesn’t give a shit about injuries. Just ask our fans in 2020.

 

[Chipmunk]

Except for that as has been pointed out, that's not a static measure. Penrith for example faced Manly in round four when they were zero from three, -82 PD and dead motherless last. Again when they played them in round nine they were eighth, And you're counting those games as against a top six.

If you look at the positions of the opponents in those games at the time of those games, for the first ten rounds for example, Penrith played six games against opponents who were in the bottom six at the beginning of that particular round, then three against teams 7th -10th,

And only one game against a team in the top six.

EDIT: actually that one game was round three against the Storm, who were 9th at the beginning of the round, so it's actually 6 games against bottom six, 4 against 7th - 10th ranked sides, and zero against top six.

So for your point to be at all valid, you'd need to value a teams current position on the ladder as a proxy for their form up to 16 rounds ago.

That's er, um, an interesting way of doing things.

The moment you started referring to the Storm as not a Top 6 side was the moment your post lost entire credibility and I'll just ignore it as idiotic, but thanks for your input.

 

[Bandwagon]

The moment you started referring to the Storm as not a Top 6 side was the moment your post lost entire credibility and I'll just ignore it as idiotic, but thanks for your input.

Yeah, ok dickhead. You'll note that's an edit ( hence typing edit ) because I ( wrongly ) assumed they were, on account of being the storm. Turns out they weren't at the time that game was played, that's a fact

You can ignore the facts as much as you like, that makes them no less true.

 

[Chipmunk]

Yeah, ok dickhead. You'll note that's an edit ( hence typing edit ) because I ( wrongly ) assumed they were, on account of being the storm. Turns out they weren't at the time that game was played, that's a fact

You can ignore the facts as much as you like, that makes them no less true.

Not interested. Go Away.

 

[Eelementary]

Technically, one could argue that Moses not having his kicking boots on cost us the game - the missed conversion means that the field goal would have been out of play.

But I'm not going to do that - 2 tries apiece, and we took it to the wire against a team that never loses at home.

I'm a proud Eels fan after Friday, tbh. I think we showed the world that we are not ready to be a Grand Final threat yet, but we will be an almighty pain in the arse for those who are.