Rd8: 8pm EELS v Broncos GAME DAY THREAD @ TIO Stadium - Darwin 21/4/23

[Legal Eel]

Did you actually watch the set and Hodgson's missed tackles? Or are you just leaning on stats alone again to fit your pre-conceived agenda of being contrary...

Of course he didn’t watch the actual game - that’s for plebs!

the enlightened ones analyse statistics and pretend it gives them unparalleled knowledge far greater than those who actually watch the sport.

this bloke knows nothing about rugby league - knows plenty about stats, can spin a decent counter-argument out of pure shit…but his ignorance of the actual sport is reflected by his inability to perceive Hodgson’s shortcomings this year.

For the record, I was hopeful there was more than what was obvious to the Hodgson signing and I truly hoped the coaching staff had seen something no one else in rugby league could.

whatever they saw, it was a mirage - but the eels supporters are the ones now face down in the metaphorical sand!

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Paulo has been shit this year.

Career best for tackle breaks and metres per game

 

[the phantom menace]

Career best for tackle breaks and metres per game

More proof that stats out of context mean nothing....

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Most hookers do more tackles per minute cause they get run at more often.

*all hookers

If Hodgson was trying to plug massive gaps, he created just as many

If there's a gap it's because of the players who weren't there to fill them, not the players who were.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Without Hodgson we would be higher up in the premiership betting.

Oh right, playing hypotheticals? In that case, you're wrong. With only Hands in the 17 we would be lower.

 

[eels_fan]

Gutho
Sivo
Penisini
Russell
Cini
Brown
Moses
Grieg
Hands
Paulo
Lane
Carty
Hopgood

Asi
Matto
Murchie
Doorey

we may need to seek dispensation for Cini or Asi, or promote one of them. Something needs to happen though

 

[Poupou Escobar]

They didn't get 10 years or the chance after winning a spoon. Bea Arthurs 2014 squad was much stronger than Stuarts or Kearney's. Let alone with what he's had to work with the last half decade.

Exactly, and he's gotten much better results than them. What point are you trying to make? That coaches win more games with better squads?

 

[the phantom menace]

If there's a gap it's because of the players who weren't there to fill them, not the players who were.

Demonstrable bullshit...

 

[the phantom menace]

Gutho
Sivo
Penisini
Russell
Cini
Brown
Moses
Grieg
Hands
Paulo
Lane
Carty
Hopgood

Asi
Matto
Murchie
Doorey

we may need to seek dispensation for Cini or Asi, or promote one of them. Something needs to happen though

I'm thinking Carty might be selected in the centres this week?

Gutherson
Sivo
Penisini
Cartwright - best centre option we have left?
Russell (until Simonssen is clear to play again)
Brown
Moses

Matterson (until RCG eventually returns)
Hands
Paulo
Doorey - better inclusion than whoever else might come into the backline
Lane
Hopgood (starting until RCG returns)

Hodgson - named but dropped on game day
Murchie (until RCG returns)
Greig
Makatoa
Arthur - comes into the 14 role on game day, to give 15mins of Hands relief...

 

[Noise]

Oh right, playing hypotheticals? In that case, you're wrong. With only Hands in the 17 we would be lower.

After only Hands was in the 17 our premiership odds with Sportsbet actually got shorter. Following Hodgsons return our premiership odds blew out again.

 

[Chipmunk]

I suspect we'll go one more week with what we've been doing, and then Newcastle gives us a touch up without RCG we will react.

Dunster to come back in this week.
Makatoa to come in for RCG.

Then we'll implode.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Did you actually watch the set and Hodgson's missed tackles? Or are you just leaning on stats alone again to fit your pre-conceived agenda of being contrary...

I did.

Tackle 2: Hodgson tackled Farnworth.

Tackle 3: Cobbo (top ten in the NRL for tackle breaks) beat RCG and Hodgson (twice) in separate one-on-one efforts. That's why he plays Origin and none of our outside backs do.

Tackle 4: Flegler ran at Moses.

Tackle 5: Haas ran at a huge gap behind the (short side) ruck, making about ten metres before any defender touched him. That defender was Matterson, who was left on the ground and Haas got a very quick play-the-ball.

Tackle 6: With Matterson on the ground and Moses strolling in back play, Cartwright went hard from marker at Reynolds, who passed back inside, presumably seeing the massive hole in our right edge defence (since Moses/Cartwright were out of the line, along with Matterson). With Paulo walking and Hodgson pushing across to fill the huge gap, RCG decided to come out of the line, buying Mam's huge dummy and leaving him one-on-one with Hodgson, who he beat with speed. He was badly let down by the defenders either side of him and did well to even get there. Containing a player like Esra Mam mean keeping a straight line and not leaving gaps. It's rugby league 101.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I’m saying that Hands’ defensive workrate is likely understated on the tackles (and misses) per minute played metric, because his one 80 minute game so far was one in which we had a bulk of possession.

You still haven’t even tried answering whether you think Hodgson is performing at an acceptable, first grade level. That’s a yes or no question. I’d be interested in knowing your opinion.

I definitely do. If you've got a player consistently isolated in the line he is going to miss tackles.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

More proof that stats out of context mean nothing....

Are you saying he's not breaking more tackles and making more metres than in previous years?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

After only Hands was in the 17 our premiership odds with Sportsbet actually got shorter. Following Hodgsons return our premiership odds blew out again.

I think our odds will improve as we play more teams outside of the top five premiership favourites and fewer teams inside the top five.

 

[The Predictor]

Junior Paulo has to lift his game up now with Reg gone. He form has been down

I personally think Reg has played better football in past 3 seasons then Junior despite Junior racking up the Origin caps.

I would love Junior to stand down from origin he has already missed 2 games this year and potentially another 3 when origin comes around.

But he probs doesn't want to give up 90k.

Junior is lazy, and only plays half dozen decent games a year

 

[the phantom menace]

I did.

Good.

So please stop putting forward rubbish random tangential stats into thread replies, and just talk about what you saw with your eyes - like everyone else on the forum has been for the past 24 hours.

 

[the phantom menace]

Are you saying he's not breaking more tackles and making more metres than in previous years?

I'm saying the aggregate stat you presented (without context e.g. per game) has nothing to do with people having formed observations of the overall level of Paulo's play in games this season.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Good.

So please stop putting forward rubbish random tangential stats into thread replies, and just talk about what you saw with your eyes - like everyone else on the forum has been for the past 24 hours.

The problem with observation is that what we recall doesn’t reflect reality in an objective way. This is why the pros use statistics. Observation (including video replay) provides context to the big picture provided by statistics.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I'm saying the aggregate stat you presented (without context e.g. per game) has nothing to do with people having formed observations of the overall level of Paulo's play in games this season.

So the aggregated data doesn’t reflect his overall level of play? lol got it.