Rnd 6 vs Raiders - Team List Tuesday - The Papalii Papali'i Cup

[Gary Gutful]

FFS can you two get a room? No one wants to hear you argue!

Are you and @IFR33K finished with yours? I hope someone cleaned it afterwards.

 

[IFR33K]

Could it just mean we lack the talent to compete on a level playing field in Canberra or against top four teams in the finals? Why does there need to be a scapegoat?

How was there a scapegoat? You’ve said for years we’re piss weak,
Mentally. I fail to believe Canberra has been a better team year in year out since 06

 

[Obscene Assassin]

True. Sometimes though, giving multiple repeat sets might not be enough of a disincentive. Merkins should be binned.

100% they should have had at least another player or 2 binned, along with a handful of set restarts against them. But the refs are too nervous to make those calls otherwise they'll be deemed as "influencing the game".

Bring back Shayne Hayne, he wasn't scared to bin multiple merkins at once

 

[IFR33K]

"Fine" weather in Canberra means something completely different than it does in Sydney.

Just because the sun is out, it doesn't mean that it's a "nice" day.

Canberra is notorious for being sunny, and having a chill in the air that bites.

Why can the team travel to Brisbane, or New Zealand, and win footy games, but struggle in Canberra?

I dare say nobody can tell for sure; however, out of all the destinations that the Eels may have to travel to in a given season, Canberra stands out as the outlier, in terms of its weather.

And I'm not sure that 2020 is a great example for demonstrating that the team travelled fairly well, what with it being affected by Covid and all.

This losing record in Canberra extends for a long, long time - it can't be the coaching, and it can't be the players, as they have changed significantly over the years.

So, what's the answer?

Like I said - it's unlikely we will ever know.

But the best educated guess we can make would be to deduce that we do not like the weather down there; combined with an extended lean period of success, which has helped to further perpetuate the hoodoo, we have a real issue on our hands.

Let’s assume your theory is correct. The eels players are struggling in the Canberra climate,
Since 06. Wouldn’t you say that’s partially a mental thing with the players. It’s not like Canberra are have a hoodoo over all teams down there

 

[Joshuatheeel]

Will Smith?

Ferguson......

 

[Gary Gutful]

Let’s assume your theory is correct. The eels players are struggling in the Canberra climate,
Since 06. Wouldn’t you that’s partially a mental thing with the players. It’s not like Canberra are have a hoodoo over all teams down there

Could partially be a mental thing but I don’t think it’s the sole reason.

There’d be a shit tonne of reasons. Have a look back at each of the games. Who was in each team? How did they win? What was each team’s form like leading up to the game?

If you genuinely want to know that’s the sort of shit you should be looking at because I’m sceptical of any ‘hoodoo’ whenever it gets mentioned in sport.

I doubt the current team give much of a shit about anything that happened more than a few years ago.

 

[Joshuatheeel]

Dragons have a hoodoo in Canberra too....

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I can tell you why we haven’t won in Canberra for so long...it’s because they have mostly been a better team than us.

For most of the last decade we were one of the worst teams in the comp. We were barely winning any games at home, let alone any away. It’s no surprise we would lose to Canberra during this period.

Then we started to get our act together, but we’re still having trouble winning away games. By the time we got to the point where we could do well away from home, Canberra became a pretty damn good team.

If a team is better than us it stands to reason they will usually beat us. Even if the two teams are evenly matched it’s no surprise if the home team comes out victorious.

Canberra still have a very good team, most probably slightly better than ours. They are not too far removed from being in a GF and were Preliminary Finalists last year. It will be no surprise if we lose this game. That’s not to say we can’t, because we can...but it won’t be because of some f**king hoodoo or soft underbelly.

In the 14 full seasons since that 2006 win in Canberra we have played there 9 times. How many of those games should we have expected to win? In hindsight we can compare the teams at the end of a season to see which was stronger. Personally I think for-and-against is the best measure of a team's quality in a given year, and the difference between Parramatta and Canberra in the years we played them away has generally been stark:

2007 is the only year we were significantly stronger than them (our points differential compared to theirs was +222) and it is fair to say we underperformed in that particular game. But in the following eight games Canberra had a significantly better team (at least 199 points better over the year) half the time. Losing to the Raiders in those four games reflects nothing more than a lack of quality. Of the remaining four games we had a marginally better for-and-against (no better than +54 over the season) twice, while in the other two games Canberra were better by 22 points and 90 points:

2006 Eels +71 (Eels last win in Canberra)
2007 Eels +222
2011 Eels +47
2012 Raiders +252
2013 Raiders +224
2014 Eels +54
2016 Raiders +213
2017 Raiders +22
2018 Raiders +199
2019 Raiders +90

So the only year we should have expected to win (in hindsight) was 2007. We should expect to have lost to a superior team in 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2018. The only games where the teams were even close to evenly matched were 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2019. But a game between two evenly matched teams should probably be won by the team with home ground advantage, especially a team like Canberra with fairly unique weather conditions at home. If you look at games played in Sydney over the same period, the Raiders have had a better points differential every year except 2007 and 2009 (both years we beat them at home).

Eels victories in bold:
2006 Eels +71
2007 Eels +222
2008 Raiders +159
2009 Eels +34
2010 Raiders +84
2015 Raiders +133
2016 Raiders +213
2017 Raiders +22
2019 Raiders +90
2020 Raiders +24

In a couple of those years (2008 and 2016) they had a significantly better points differential and we still beat them at home. Maybe the Raiders had a soft underbelly, or maybe it's not statistically significant. Either way, in those years where there was less than a try per game (+96 over the season) between the two teams, the Raiders won 4 from 5 in Canberra and we won 3 from 6 at home. Maybe the problem is our home ground isn't as much of an advantage as theirs. The fact the Raiders play in Sydney about ten times every year would support this. They are used to Sydney while the only team used to playing and training in Canberra is the Raiders.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

You’ve said for years we’re piss weak,
Mentally.

I was talking about the fans ffs!

 

[Soren Lorenson]

f**k off

wtf is going on here?

 

[Soren Lorenson]

....

 

[hineyrulz]

I was talking about the fans ffs!

STFU you pissweak scapegoating merkin!!!!

 

[Gary Gutful]

STFU you pissweak scapegoating merkin!!!!

Look over there...Free Kraken!

Right, that should keep the merkin occupied for a while...

 

[Gary Gutful]

In the 14 full seasons since that 2006 win in Canberra we have played there 9 times. How many of those games should we have expected to win? In hindsight we can compare the teams at the end of a season to see which was stronger. Personally I think for-and-against is the best measure of a team's quality in a given year, and the difference between Parramatta and Canberra in the years we played them away has generally been stark:

2007 is the only year we were significantly stronger than them (our points differential compared to theirs was +222) and it is fair to say we underperformed in that particular game. But in the following eight games Canberra had a significantly better team (at least 199 points better over the year) half the time. Losing to the Raiders in those four games reflects nothing more than a lack of quality. Of the remaining four games we had a marginally better for-and-against (no better than +54 over the season) twice, while in the other two games Canberra were better by 22 points and 90 points:

2006 Eels +71 (Eels last win in Canberra)
2007 Eels +222
2011 Eels +47
2012 Raiders +252
2013 Raiders +224
2014 Eels +54
2016 Raiders +213
2017 Raiders +22
2018 Raiders +199
2019 Raiders +90

So the only year we should have expected to win (in hindsight) was 2007. We should expect to have lost to a superior team in 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2018. The only games where the teams were even close to evenly matched were 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2019. But a game between two evenly matched teams should probably be won by the team with home ground advantage, especially a team like Canberra with fairly unique weather conditions at home. If you look at games played in Sydney over the same period, the Raiders have had a better points differential every year except 2007 and 2009 (both years we beat them at home).

Eels victories in bold:
2006 Eels +71
2007 Eels +222
2008 Raiders +159
2009 Eels +34
2010 Raiders +84
2015 Raiders +133
2016 Raiders +213
2017 Raiders +22
2019 Raiders +90
2020 Raiders +24

In a couple of those years (2008 and 2016) they had a significantly better points differential and we still beat them at home. Maybe the Raiders had a soft underbelly, or maybe it's not statistically significant. Either way, in those years where there was less than a try per game (+96 over the season) between the two teams, the Raiders won 4 from 5 in Canberra and we won 3 from 6 at home. Maybe the problem is our home ground isn't as much of an advantage as theirs. The fact the Raiders play in Sydney about ten times every year would support this. They are used to Sydney while the only team used to playing and training in Canberra is the Raiders.

Yeah, but what the f**k does it mean FFS!

 

[hineyrulz]

Look over there...Free Kraken!

Right, that should keep the merkin occupied for a while...

wear??????

 

[T.S Quint]

In the 14 full seasons since that 2006 win in Canberra we have played there 9 times. How many of those games should we have expected to win? In hindsight we can compare the teams at the end of a season to see which was stronger. Personally I think for-and-against is the best measure of a team's quality in a given year, and the difference between Parramatta and Canberra in the years we played them away has generally been stark:

2007 is the only year we were significantly stronger than them (our points differential compared to theirs was +222) and it is fair to say we underperformed in that particular game. But in the following eight games Canberra had a significantly better team (at least 199 points better over the year) half the time. Losing to the Raiders in those four games reflects nothing more than a lack of quality. Of the remaining four games we had a marginally better for-and-against (no better than +54 over the season) twice, while in the other two games Canberra were better by 22 points and 90 points:

2006 Eels +71 (Eels last win in Canberra)
2007 Eels +222
2011 Eels +47
2012 Raiders +252
2013 Raiders +224
2014 Eels +54
2016 Raiders +213
2017 Raiders +22
2018 Raiders +199
2019 Raiders +90

So the only year we should have expected to win (in hindsight) was 2007. We should expect to have lost to a superior team in 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2018. The only games where the teams were even close to evenly matched were 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2019. But a game between two evenly matched teams should probably be won by the team with home ground advantage, especially a team like Canberra with fairly unique weather conditions at home. If you look at games played in Sydney over the same period, the Raiders have had a better points differential every year except 2007 and 2009 (both years we beat them at home).

Eels victories in bold:
2006 Eels +71
2007 Eels +222
2008 Raiders +159
2009 Eels +34
2010 Raiders +84
2015 Raiders +133
2016 Raiders +213
2017 Raiders +22
2019 Raiders +90
2020 Raiders +24

In a couple of those years (2008 and 2016) they had a significantly better points differential and we still beat them at home. Maybe the Raiders had a soft underbelly, or maybe it's not statistically significant. Either way, in those years where there was less than a try per game (+96 over the season) between the two teams, the Raiders won 4 from 5 in Canberra and we won 3 from 6 at home. Maybe the problem is our home ground isn't as much of an advantage as theirs. The fact the Raiders play in Sydney about ten times every year would support this. They are used to Sydney while the only team used to playing and training in Canberra is the Raiders.

Yeah, that’s what I f**ken said.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Yeah, but what the f**k does it mean FFS!

How the f**k would I know?? I work in f**ken laundromat!

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Yeah, that’s what I f**ken said.

You did. I just thought I'd do a deep dive and circle back to value add to your point and various other corporate phrases.

 

[hindy111]

Didn’t you say yesterday we play at one pace all season long?
FMD it was the reason me and iFreek had a tiff! You should apologise!

But seriously I said it back at halftime round 1, I wonder if Skeletor’s comments last year got to BA and that we’ve started this season a little under done. It’s fine if you can build back up at end of season whilst still putting together enough wins to make finals, but it carries many obvious risks

We do. But don't you feel in finals we upped the anti and played higher risk footy? I felt like we did. It was a shame we lost MJ,Sivo,Fergo cause they play and we beat Souths.

 

[hindy111]

Yawn.

He specifically mentioned that one particular game and suggested that the result would determine whether we make up the numbers. Your interpretation of both his and my comments are off the mark on this occasion.

Anyway, we agreed afterwards that it was a big test. But agreed to disagree over whether the result would determine whether we make up the numbers.

I base it more on what the players are showing.
Lets say Blake just exploded into form and D.Brown stepped it up like Kafusi and Mahoney has then my opinion would be we are superior to 2020 and a chance. Or a junior just exploded onto the scene
But at this point it seems neither has happend. So I won't expect more.

Where else can improvement in our squad come from? Papalì has added a little bit. But the rest played well last season. Sivo and Fergo where down on form I guess so we can gain a little from them but not a lot. There just not that good.