emjaycee
Coach
- Messages
- 13,816
Think about it mate. I assume you are bright enough right? But how would you react if you were being low balled(even if it is only in your own mind initially) and then knew if you could eventually(as was stated by his manager up front when the initial low offer was made) go on the open market and use the media to get more then what you intended to get in the first place if your client started to play really well. Especially knowing that there weren't any other Number 1's on the market that were better during this period?
If you dick around with negotiations with a commodity that could easily go up in value or down then don't be surprised if the asking price rises when you have pissed off the other party and the said commodity has increase its market value. To me shows very poor and inexperienced negotiating skills by our football department. Like I said lets just wait and see how this circus pans out.
Thanks for the assumption on my intelligence level - I'll assume for a moment you are correct and run with your hypothesis a little bit further.
If I have a commodity to sell I would try to ascertain its 'true' worth before putting a price on it. Sure I wouldn't take the first offer that came along if I thought I was being low-balled, but I would be careful not to overprice it at the risk of not being able to close a sale. Like any commodity, Gutho has a value that should be determined by a combination of internal factors (i.e. what he wants/thinks he deserves) and external factors (i.e. what the market is prepared to pay/who needs him and how badly they do) and yes, the external market value can and should be tested. But external market value is determined by both supply and demand and to be honest, while there may not be very many (or any) other better number 1's on the open market, there are also very limited buyers of number 1's at present. If you rank various positions that Gutho can play in order of market value (what a club will be prepared to spend on a role) then it is probably halves, fullback, utility backs and then outside backs.
Gutho is probably only worth 60-65% of a top half (he doesn't have the kicking or passing game needed)- so assuming the top ones get $1M, his worth as a half is probably $600k-$650k.
If the top echelon of fullbacks are getting less than the halves, say $850-$900k and Gutho is worth maybe 75% of a Tedesco, Turbo Tom or Moylan (he doesn't have the speed or kicking game), then his worth goes up to say $635-$675k.
Outside backs are probably worth $500-$600k tops and utilities would sit somewhere in between the $600-$700k range. This is where Parra have placed him.
As far as Gutho's value going up or down, I disagree that it can go up much further, if at all. He has played out of his skin and probably to the best of his ability as a fullback in rounds 1-6 this year. Therefore he actually has more downside potential than upside (as we saw when he had his worse game of the year on Sunday) between now and when he eventually signs his next contract.
Add to that the risk of re-injury and the possible brand damage being caused by the behaviour of him and his manager and I personally think Sam has taken a right royal risk that just may not end up in his clients best interest after all.