Rumours and Whingers and Occasional Optimism XXIX

[eloquentEEL]

Hey pou explain this stat - Average forward meters per run.

Wests Tigers 8.92
Panthers 8.71
Sea Eagles 8.62
Cowboys 8.61
Rabbitohs 8.54
Roosters 8.46
Raiders 8.20
Warriors 8.17
Storm 8.13
Broncos 8.12
Knights 8.03
Sharks 7.99
Bulldogs 7.98
Dragons 7.94
Titans 7.90
Eels 7.75

Perhaps our forwards are more interested in quick play the balls or offloads/passed than they are in metres/run.

More likely though, it's just due to our opposition over the first few weeks. Few if any teams would have come up against 3 of the top forward packs in the comp.

 

[hindy111]

Norman hasn't yet proven he's worth elite money, but the danger is that a more desperate club is in a better (or worse) position to take a big risk on him. Given his age he could become elite.

Agree, he is a very smart player. I think i would rather throw big $ at Mbye thou at the same risk.

 

[IFR33K]

I do want to sign Norman. But looking at his stats from last year. They are not mind blowing. 12 LBA's and 10 try assists.
Thurston had 33+ 33
Benji had 22+18
Moylan had 11+11 - In 11 games.

Sometimes a guy looks a better fit in a better team. Need to be carefull not to pay overs. His kicking game is still average. And although he was very good last year and looked solid this year we have to also not get into a bidding war.

Last year, he had mediocre players both inside and outside him. Let's see how he goes surrounded by an improved squad.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Agree, he is a very smart player. I think i would rather throw big $ at Mbye thou at the same risk.

Agreed. I think Mbye is a better risk, and therefore worth more. I doubt he would be cheaper than Norman. I hope we keep Norman though, and that nobody is silly enough to throw huge overs at him.

Brooks is another off contract left footer, who should be cheaper than Norman or Mbye. Otherwise there's Mitch Moses, a right footer, and Foran could move back to the left.

Blake Green is a reasonably priced option too, and I wonder how much Cronk would go for at his age? On a one or two year deal he would probably still get offers around $700k per year.

 

[george]

Those stats haven't seem to help the panthers warriors or roosters

 

[yy_cheng]

Norman hasn't yet proven he's worth elite money, but the danger is that a more desperate club is in a better (or worse) position to take a big risk on him. Given his age he could become elite.

Its what i have been saying all week

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Which bit?

 

[hindy111]

Benji will be 32...Worth a 2 yr deal.... He had a lot of TA and LBA's and id be happy as a back up plan.

 

[Bigfella]

Norman hasn't yet proven he's worth elite money, but the danger is that a more desperate club is in a better (or worse) position to take a big risk on him. Given his age he could become elite.

So what you are saying is, we should pay overs for potential? And for fan favourites?

Sounds very consistent.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

So what you are saying is, we should pay overs for potential? And for fan favourites?

Where did I say that? I said in a later post that I hope other clubs don't offer overs because I don't want us to have to match it.

I think it's often worth it to pay for potential, but not too much. That's the judgement call clubs have to make. If you didn't you'd never have any youngsters in your team, and in fact they're a great source of potential value, as long as you're not paying too much.

And I think it's absolutely not worth it to pay overs for fan favourites.

Sounds very consistent.

In hindsight you probably regret this comment now. You're probably feeling a bit silly about it.

 

[Last Week]

I think we'll keep him. He wants to stay, likes where we're going and is guaranteed to be our first choice 6. He's important for our team culture too. I've heard that the playing group is really close and get along well, with Corey being a big part of that.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I'm sure there's a huge chance we'll keep him. The danger is we'll pay too much.

 

[yy_cheng]

What is paying too much?

What he gets is his market value at that time based on supply and demand

 

[Poupou Escobar]

What is paying too much?

What he gets is his market value at that time based on supply and demand

And too much is where another club has valued him higher than we do. Like Canberra's valuation of Junior Paulo. I'm sure plenty of fans would have preferred we match their offer than let him go.

 

[yy_cheng]

And too much is where another club has valued him higher than we do. Like Canberra's valuation of Junior Paulo. I'm sure plenty of fans would have preferred we match their offer than let him go.

but thats what he is worth to canberra and we do have some sort of coverage for him.

However, Norman is a half and I dont think we have the coverage for him.

There's no point signing foran to pair him with Kelly?

If we choose not to over pay for him, do we end up over paying for someone else?

Say Norman is worth around $800k but he wants $950k

Say Brooks and Moses is worth around $700k, we miss out on Norman because the Tits offered him the $950 and he's closer to family. Then we end up in a bidding war for Brooks or Moses and end up paying $850k. Yeah we end up less on our cap but we still overpayed for someone in my mind of lesser quality.

You did discuss MBye. Would we end up getting in a bidding war with the dogs?

BA's job could be on the line so why wouldnt he want to sure up his 5/8th. Ricky is.

I just reckon we should get him asap. I just think the longer the season goes on, the more his value will go up. Unless he ends up with a season ending injury, then we might get him cheap.

I know we have cap issues, but we can choose not to resign Peats (sign IDG for a lesser amount) and maybe trade some of our backrowers.

As much as I like Jennings playing for us, I think he was a poor cap signing. Semi could adapt to centre and we get a good winger from somewhere else cheaper.


I've been backing Parra since '77.

But I would really struggle if I had to see 6. Foran 7. Kelly next year. Might become a mormon for 2 years and not watch tv.

 

[IFR33K]

And too much is where another club has valued him higher than we do. Like Canberra's valuation of Junior Paulo. I'm sure plenty of fans would have preferred we match their offer than let him go.

Every signing is a risk. Who's to know Paulo doesn't absolutely demolish the opposition next year.

In regards to Norman. He's a very good first grader. Yet to win a premiership or play origin. I'm sure he'll get paid accordingly.

 

[yy_cheng]

Every signing is a risk. Who's to know Paulo doesn't absolutely demolish the opposition next year.

In regards to Norman. He's a very good first grader. Yet to win a premiership or play origin. I'm sure he'll get paid accordingly.

A bit like alot of ex-eels that went on upper and higher.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

but thats what he is worth to canberra and we do have some sort of coverage for him.

However, Norman is a half and I dont think we have the coverage for him.

There's no point signing foran to pair him with Kelly?

If we choose not to over pay for him, do we end up over paying for someone else?

Say Norman is worth around $800k but he wants $950k

Say Brooks and Moses is worth around $700k, we miss out on Norman because the Tits offered him the $950 and he's closer to family. Then we end up in a bidding war for Brooks or Moses and end up paying $850k. Yeah we end up less on our cap but we still overpayed for someone in my mind of lesser quality.

You did discuss MBye. Would we end up getting in a bidding war with the dogs?

BA's job could be on the line so why wouldnt he want to sure up his 5/8th. Ricky is.

I just reckon we should get him asap. I just think the longer the season goes on, the more his value will go up. Unless he ends up with a season ending injury, then we might get him cheap.

I know we have cap issues, but we can choose not to resign Peats (sign IDG for a lesser amount) and maybe trade some of our backrowers.

As much as I like Jennings playing for us, I think he was a poor cap signing. Semi could adapt to centre and we get a good winger from somewhere else cheaper.


I've been backing Parra since '77.

But I would really struggle if I had to see 6. Foran 7. Kelly next year. Might become a mormon for 2 years and not watch tv.

There are plenty of options - a club for every off contract half and an off contract half for every club that needs one. So we won't need to bring Kelly or Cornish into our top 17. Every off contract half has a price and they aren't all the same. If we miss out on signing/re-singing a more valuable one we will get one from down the list. I'd say Norman and Mbye are the two most expensive currently on the market, with maybe Blake Green the cheapest that is still good enough for the top 17. Guys like Wallace and Robson are probably looking at backup gigs if they stay in the game after this year.

Here's how I rank the values of the off contract halves. Obviously different clubs would rate them differently:

Mbye
Norman
Cronk
Moses
Brooks
Marshall
Green

And obviously there are vacancies (and therefore demand) at the Bulldogs, Eels, Dragons, as well as two spots at both Wests and Melbourne. I actually think the Storm are the biggest threat at the moment. They have plenty to spend on halves. They could end up with Norman or Mbye, and re-sign Blake Green and move him to the right.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Every signing is a risk.

Does that mean every signing is the same risk? Surely you don't think so.

Who's to know Paulo doesn't absolutely demolish the opposition next year.

Well next year we'll all know. But what we won't know is how much he's getting paid or how much we offered. We will all be able to offer our opinion on what he's worth (in fact we can do it right now) but we won't know what he's getting paid. Even if he plays well every week there's a chance the Raiders are still paying too much, and that we dodged a bullet.

In regards to Norman. He's a very good first grader. Yet to win a premiership or play origin. I'm sure he'll get paid accordingly.

So you think Cronk and Marshall will be in higher demand than Norman and Mbye?

 

[Joshuatheeel]

but thats what he is worth to canberra and we do have some sort of coverage for him.

However, Norman is a half and I dont think we have the coverage for him.

There's no point signing foran to pair him with Kelly?

If we choose not to over pay for him, do we end up over paying for someone else?

Say Norman is worth around $800k but he wants $950k

Say Brooks and Moses is worth around $700k, we miss out on Norman because the Tits offered him the $950 and he's closer to family. Then we end up in a bidding war for Brooks or Moses and end up paying $850k. Yeah we end up less on our cap but we still overpayed for someone in my mind of lesser quality.

You did discuss MBye. Would we end up getting in a bidding war with the dogs?

BA's job could be on the line so why wouldnt he want to sure up his 5/8th. Ricky is.

I just reckon we should get him asap. I just think the longer the season goes on, the more his value will go up. Unless he ends up with a season ending injury, then we might get him cheap.

I know we have cap issues, but we can choose not to resign Peats (sign IDG for a lesser amount) and maybe trade some of our backrowers.

As much as I like Jennings playing for us, I think he was a poor cap signing. Semi could adapt to centre and we get a good winger from somewhere else cheaper.


I've been backing Parra since '77.

But I would really struggle if I had to see 6. Foran 7. Kelly next year. Might become a mormon for 2 years and not watch tv.

Or Cornish might go ok paired with Foran and would cost bugger all. Then we have some cash to strengthour pack.

Not saying that's my preference but may be an option.

Also Dargan may be a back up option next year