The prospect of the Warriors losing the services of Brent Tate next year is becoming more real. The big question is: if he does leave, how will the Warriors replace him?
Tate's potential loss - the Cowboys and his old club, the Broncos, are said to be interested - could see the Warriors cashed up as one of the few NRL clubs able to buy significantly and stay under the salary cap; more important than ever in these days of intense scrutiny.
His contract negotiation comes at the same time as the loss of Warriors talisman (and Tate's brother-in-law) Steve Price, plus the shift of fullback Wade McKinnon to Wests Tigers.
The acquisition of Feleti Mateo and Krisnan Inu means the Warriors have already spent some of their war chest - but those two are not thought to have broken the bank.
Tate's potential loss means the Warriors would arguably have to replace them with players in the same position - centre (Tate), prop (Price) and fullback (McKinnon).
But it may be that the club feels it is in a good spot in at least two of those positions, especially with few other marquee players available on the market.
At prop, the club have Sam Rapira performing strongly, assuming he recovers from injury without complications, and home-grown investments in Russell Packer and Upu Poching. Lance Hohaia has done well at fullback, winger Kevin Locke is more than handy there and Inu is a respected fullback/winger or centre.
The Warriors could look at replacing Tate at centre or look at a ball-playing back rower/prop like Adam Blair. That possibility is enhanced by the fact Blair's club the Storm will need to shed players after the salary cap rort.
One theory in building a premiership contending side is to spend the majority of the cap on an effective hooker, halves and fullback combination mixed with a ball-playing back-rower and matchwinner somewhere else on the park - like Manu Vatuvei.
Ideally, all the above players should be paid in the vicinity of $250,000 and over, backed up by solid props, centres and wingers, generally earning under that figure. Tate is an exception, commanding somewhere in the vicinity of $400,000.
If fullback looks covered, so does the halves. Hohaia can back up there while much has been written about Brett Seymour and James Maloney. If Mateo is used at five-eighth, that means hooker could be an area to target for the Warriors.
Aaron Heremaia has had a stellar season for someone who came in underrated and has managed to keep out the dynamic Ian Henderson. However, Storm skipper Cameron Smith could not be ignored if he came on the market.
How that club might shed the money it overspent in the salary cap rort is a possible complication. If one of the big four of Smith, Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater or Greg Inglis should be prepared to move from Melbourne, the Warriors are one of the few clubs thought to be in a position to make a realistic bid.
However, the reality is few big-name players come off contract without a bidding frenzy.
It is a big 'if' for former Kiwis skipper Hugh McGahan: "There is talk the Storm's top players could be prepared to take pay cuts to stick together so the Warriors management would have to start doing something quickly. They're a tight bunch and if there's truth to that rumour it will take a lot to drag any of them away."
Another former Kiwi and now commentator, Richie Barnett, would opt for Smith over any of the other Storm elite - mainly for the leadership factor. Warriors coach Ivan Cleary, when faced with the same hypothetical situation, would prefer Inglis if Tate can't be re-signed.
"It's a hard question. Ideally you'd re-sign Brent but Inglis is probably the number one man in the game. However that comes with arguably the biggest price tag. Whoever you get, you are spending a stack."
When fit, Tate has lived up to his star salary but he has only played 38 games since joining in 2008. The main disruption was the rupture to the anterior cruciate ligament in his knee, three games into last season.
In addition to his playing skills, the 28-year-old has proven a composed leader and someone team-mates can rely on for guidance when they struggle.
However, the lure of his Queensland home is strong and may tip the balance as Tate also considers a future outside league.
"At the end of my career, we will go back to Queensland. It's our home but there's no hurry to return. But this is a decision for my family as much as me. I have a plan for how long I'll play."
Understandably Tate won't divulge too many details of that plan and is happy to let agent George Mimis do the talking for now so he can get on with his job without too many distractions.
Mimis says the Warriors are keen to retain Tate but he cannot put a timeline on matters.
Warriors CEO Wayne Scurrah says there has been dialogue for about a month: "We're hoping to conclude discussions in the next few weeks. Brent's chances of staying are 50:50 at present because other clubs have expressed interest."
If Price and his wife - Tate's sister Jo - were to move back to Australia it would be one less reason for the centre to stay. McGahan says retaining Tate is unlikely: "A deal would have been done quicker otherwise. I'd say they're looking elsewhere but will use the Warriors as a back-up plan. It won't be their first choice."
Barnett says the prospects of representative selection will also influence Tate's decision.
"He'd have to ask whether the Warriors pivotal to his State of Origin and international ambitions. The Warriors will then weigh up if they can afford him or whether it's worth trying someone else. His ability to create play could be compensated by Feleti Mateo next season.
"It'll come down to dollars and sense and whether he sees the Warriors as capable of bringing out the best in him."
Coach Ivan Cleary says so far Tate's negotiations have not diluted his impact on the team.
"I'm always mindful of it as a potential distraction. That's where you need a good relationship with your manager. Brent obviously has that and his performances haven't faltered."
By Andrew Alderson
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10648358&pnum=0
