Team 20 - Who? Adelaide or Queensland 5?

[docbrown]

western corridor is League through and through, people there aren't going to switch to AFL en masse cause the Lions have some training ground there lol

you people are so paranoid

”The Lions practice their fumbling nearby. Better sign up for a 20 year membership!” I mean honestly, who gives a sh**?

 

[xe_kilroy]

It’s not about League people “switching” to AFL as such.
It’s more about the long game. i.e. more kids playing AFL because it’s in their school, more AFL fields popping up around the place etc.
The AFL will have a lot more disposable money to do this kind of stuff because of their TV deal.

Exactly. The long game.

Eventually the NRL will look to Ipswich for an NRL license, but currently it's about 200k population, whilst the northern corridor is 800k pushing higher faster.

Imo, Perth then SC are 18 and 19

 

[docbrown]

The pro’s for Adelaide is it’s a new market, the cons are it won’t ever develop their own players. There are only 5 senior clubs in Adelaide.

The pros for Brisbane especially a western Brisbane bid is it consolidates the games heart land. The pathways created to a local club will provide a lot more community engagement.

From a Storm prospective I am concerned if the amount of teams in Queensland jumps from 3 to 5. 5 and a half really with the PNG team looked to be based out of Cairns.

South Australia. 1.7 million. No existing teams.

South East Queensland. 3.8 million. 3 existing teams.

 

[Pippen94]

I love the narrative gaining momentum around expansion and I love the game finally being aggressive about growth. There are a couple of things that concern me though.

1. The proposed Pasifika idea, I can only see it ending in tears no matter which format it takes. Instead of pouring money into an NRL team, pour the money into pathways for each Pacific nation. A QLD / NSW Cup team for each with U21's, U19's and U17's in the respective system. That will do more for the NRL in terms of developing Pacific talent and will do more for each countries national team moving forward than a combined NRL team would.

2. I hope we aren't doing a 1995 and expanding a bit too quickly because we are entering a new golden age.

3. I actually like the idea of the Bears bringing a traditional brand back to the NRL, but it can't be at the expense of a currently untapped big city market, they can't be some hybrid model of 11 games in one city and one game at NS Oval and they really can't be based in Sydney as we have got more than enough teams there which makes it tough to bring them back considering the stance of the Bears' management.

My thoughts on who we should bring in are:

18. Perth - no brainer
19. Christchurch - presence on the South Island and has a natural rivalry with Auckland
20. Adelaide - big city market, needs to happen, will complete the national footprint in Australia

Other options:

South-West Brisbane Fire Jet Hawks (QLD is then a closed shop at NRL level). Will be successful but I think we need to wait until the comp is ready to go past 20 to do this.

Central Coast - this is our Tasmania and will have to wait for a team to voluntarily relocate there or until the NRL goes to 22 teams.

Pasifika - See above, best to spend money on giving them world class pathways and funding those teams to play in the QLD or NSW system.

Bears - give them the opportunity to bid as any of the above expansion teams, make it clear that they are to base themselves out of the bid city if they are successful and play 100% of their Premiership matches in that city and that the licence is tied to them remaining in that city. They either agree to the terms and re-enter the NRL or they don't and they stay in the NSW Cup.

The three teams you mention need lots of funding. What indication out NRL makes you think they'll do that??

 

[Pippen94]

Exactly. The long game.

Eventually the NRL will look to Ipswich for an NRL license, but currently it's about 200k population, whilst the northern corridor is 800k pushing higher faster.

Imo, Perth then SC are 18 and 19

Western Corridor includes Logan & out to Toowoomba. Much bigger population than that

 

[titoelcolombiano]

I agree I think the Pasifika idea is crazy and for all the wrong reasons. However if the Aus govt wants to throw silly money at the NRL then wed be stupid not to try and find a way that meets strategic goals AND is covered by external funding.
Best option I've come up with is Pacifika based out of Wellington. At least it has some long term future when Govt funding dries up.

Perth no brainer in my biased opinion. All the blocks are in place, now its just a case of Vlandys screwing the WA Govt for every last $ to help the game and the club.

Dolphins decision hasnt solved the Brisbane2 issue so there remains a glaringly obvious gap in the south and SW of Brisbane that needs filling at some time. Firehawks can easily and safley fill that gap but we have to give Dolphins a decade to be solid long term. We all saw what happened with Titans after 4 years of success at the beginning.

Adelaide a conundrum for sure. Its Australia's 5th biggest city, adds to metro rating value and has had good response to RL over the years. But it has zero jnrs, limited corporates, limited stadium and no bid team knocking on the door.

Then the pesky Bears. For me you pick the three areas you want to go to, see which is the biggest risk in terms of long term viability then offer the Bears to move there under some very strict criteria.

Of the 4 options the risk matrix would look (top being least risky, bottom most)

Firehawks
Perth
Pacifika (presuming long term Govt funding)
Adelaide

So Bears to Pacifika or Adelaide

Who I'd bring in

2025 Pacifika Bears (Wellington)
2028 WC Pirates
2033 South Brisbane Firehawks

or if Adelaide is deemed more strategic than over saturating Brisbane
2025 Pacifika Cyclones (Wellington)
2028 WC Pirates
2033 Adelaide Bears

I actually initially liked the idea of the Pasifika team also being NZ2, but if the Aus Govt is stumping up the money, they'd probably want the team based in Australia if it's not based on the islands I would imagine.

I don't think the Dolphins admission has left a glaring hole. It shows that Brisbane / SEQ is underdeveloped. If the Firehawks got in, we'd still have the northern corridor to cover, the Broncos can't do it all and it's in the game's best interest to continue to grow with SEQ.

 

[Pippen94]

South Australia. 1.7 million. No existing teams.

South East Queensland. 3.8 million. 3 existing teams.

1.7 million ppl but zero interest.

Se qld market is going to be large target for advertisers & sponsorship. Number of teams is pretty much irrelevant.

 

[Pippen94]

I actually initially liked the idea of the Pasifika team also being NZ2, but if the Aus Govt is stumping up the money, they'd probably want the team based in Australia if it's not based on the islands I would imagine.

I don't think the Dolphins admission has left a glaring hole. It shows that Brisbane / SEQ is underdeveloped. If the Firehawks got in, we'd still have the northern corridor to cover, the Broncos can't do it all and it's in the game's best interest to continue to grow with SEQ.

Pasifika is to counter China. Nothing to do with nz

 

[macca_saint]

1.7 million ppl but zero interest.

Se qld market is going to be large version target for advertisers & sponsorship. Number of teams is pretty much irrelevant.

This.

South Australia. 50k people max interested in League.
South East Queensland. 3.7 million people interested in League.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

The three teams you mention need lots of funding. What indication out NRL makes you think they'll do that??

What the NRL will do in reality is probably go with Brisbane 3 and Perth. TV will pay for both as Brisbane has the eyeballs and Perth has the TV timeslot and potential new eyeballs.

 

[Pippen94]

This.

South Australia. 50k people max interested in League.
South East Queensland. 3.7 million people interested in League.

Adelaide might add 100k extra viewers, probably less if they make grand final. Qld team in final game is always a bigger draw than that. Adelaide not worth effort.

 

[Pippen94]

What the NRL will do in reality is probably go with Brisbane 3 and Perth. TV will pay for both as Brisbane has the eyeballs and Perth has the TV timeslot and potential new eyeballs.

V'Landys wants to get paid for extra game but not pay for new team. This is why super rich dolphins were selected.
Afl pour the money they make back into expansion clubs, but after a decade & 100's of millions gws recorded lowest crowd average in history of game in 2022.

 

[Pippen94]

Exactly. The long game.

Eventually the NRL will look to Ipswich for an NRL license, but currently it's about 200k population, whilst the northern corridor is 800k pushing higher faster.

Imo, Perth then SC are 18 and 19

Don't bet on that

 

[docbrown]

1.7 million ppl but zero interest.

Se qld market is going to be large target for advertisers & sponsorship. Number of teams is pretty much irrelevant.

Step 1. Deny Adelaide a team for decades.

Step 2. Complain that nobody in Adelaide likes NRL.

That’s called a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

[Pippen94]

Step 1. Deny Adelaide a team for decades.

Step 2. Complain that nobody in Adelaide likes NRL.

That’s called a self fulfilling prophecy.

Market not big enough to worry about

 

[docbrown]

V'Landys wants to get paid for extra game but not pay for new team. This is why super rich dolphins were selected.
Afl pour the money they make back into expansion clubs, but after a decade & 100's of millions gws recorded lowest crowd average in history of game in 2022.

The difference between GWS and an Adelaide NRL team is that for decades AFL fans in Sydney have been able to follow a local AFL club called the Sydney Swans based in Sydney. So GWS was going to struggle.

Adelaide NRL fans have had no such team to follow.

 

[docbrown]

Market not big enough to worry about

It’s the fifth biggest media market in Australia.

 

[macca_saint]

Step 1. Deny Adelaide a team for decades.

Step 2. Complain that nobody in Adelaide likes NRL.

That’s called a self fulfilling prophecy.

I’d love an Adelaide side but it would be too much of a money pit like GWS and the Suns are.
Better to go with Perth, then QLD5 and NZ2/Pacific Bears.

 

[Pippen94]

The difference between GWS and an Adelaide NRL team is that for decades AFL fans in Sydney have been able to follow a local AFL club called the Sydney Swans based in Sydney. So GWS was going to struggle.

Adelaide NRL fans have had no such team to follow.

Difference is gws is in Sydney & Adelaide is in Adelaide

 

[Pippen94]

It’s the fifth biggest media market in Australia.

Means nothing