Team vs Panthers

[I'm a loser baby...]

Hey Barry, I'm looking at the first tryscorer market where you get your money back if a player scores. Say Radradra, at $9. How would you go about working out whether this is a profitable bet? Or how profitable? I'm thinking he scores about once every two games (given doubles and triples), but how likely he is to score first is a mystery.

edit: It seems a reasonable assumption that it's profitable, given that the price is in line with the market. What I'm interested in is the maths.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Hey Barry, I'm looking at the first tryscorer market where you get your money back if a player scores. Say Radradra, at $9. How would you go about working out whether this is a profitable bet? Or how profitable? I'm thinking he scores about once every two games (given doubles and triples), but how likely he is to score first is a mystery.

Well, that's a tricky one even if we assume that players have the same average strike rate across the season, regardless of opposition / conditions etc. There's no useful magic formula, but a basic approach might include (this is a gross simplification....and I'm doing it off the top of my head so I might f**k something up:

If the bet is for Parra 1st try scorer:

How often does Semi score (50% of games, say)?
Pretend the rest of the team selected are one player (with a really big name like RobinsonHoppaTakaMorgsCoreySandow.......). How often do they collectively score (say 4 times per game = 400% of games).

Then I'd probably say well, there a 50% chance of Semi scoring at all, so he score half a try a game. However, with the rest of our team scoring on average 4 tries per game, and assuming the order of tries scored is random I'd say Semi is a 0.5 / 4.5 = 1/9th chance of being our first try scorer.

If the bet is First Try Scorer in the Match (for either team), then you'd have to also consider how many tries the opposition score on average. If the opposition score 6 per game on average then Semi's chances of being first are 0.5 / (4.5 + 6) = approx 1/20. So you'd need a price of $21.00 for it to be a fair bet.

All of this assumes that there's nothing that systematically causes some players to score earlier in games, and other to score later etc.

If you can be bothered, you can work out how much the entire market is set against you.

If you take the dividend offered for each player, and divide 1 by this dividend

Eg. if Semi is $9 , 1/ 9 = 11.11%, Joe blogs is $15, 1/ 15 = 6.66% etc

Do it for every player. Add up the percentages. If the market is a perfectly fair bet (it wont be) they will add up to 100%. The greater the difference between the actual percentage and 100% the bigger the bookies margin. Starting price at the races might be as good as 105%. The take on exotic bets is often well in excess of 15% and much more where fixed prices are offered.

* if you are quoted odds rather than dividends 1 / (Odds +1)

Again, this ignores a number of complications.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

That doesn't sound right Barry.

 

[Noise]

Hey Barry, I'm looking at the first tryscorer market where you get your money back if a player scores. Say Radradra, at $9. How would you go about working out whether this is a profitable bet? Or how profitable? I'm thinking he scores about once every two games (given doubles and triples), but how likely he is to score first is a mystery.

edit: It seems a reasonable assumption that it's profitable, given that the price is in line with the market. What I'm interested in is the maths.

The most accurate math is that he is a 1 in 34 chance of scoring first. More likely 1 in 26. The rest is just speculation

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

The most accurate math is that he is a 1 in 34 chance of scoring first. More likely 1 in 26. The rest is just speculation

Yes, that's the easier way of doing it

 

[Mr Pmatta]

90 percent of u are clueless and full of shit.......u make me laugh and keep me young......on with the bullshit.:lol:

 

[strider]

So Arthur throws a bit of water and it's a bad look for the game and he is clearly under pressure. Ricky Stuart gets pissed off and kicks a chair at last weekends game and it's "passion"

come on mate - its clear that breaking chairs is nothing but a show of passion ... haven't you been to a wanderers game?

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Well, that's a tricky one even if we assume that players have the same average strike rate across the season, regardless of opposition / conditions etc. There's no useful magic formula, but a basic approach might include (this is a gross simplification....and I'm doing it off the top of my head so I might f**k something up:

If the bet is for Parra 1st try scorer:

How often does Semi score (50% of games, say)?
Pretend the rest of the team selected are one player (with a really big name like RobinsonHoppaTakaMorgsCoreySandow.......). How often do they collectively score (say 4 times per game = 400% of games).

Then I'd probably say well, there a 50% chance of Semi scoring at all, so he score half a try a game. However, with the rest of our team scoring on average 4 tries per game, and assuming the order of tries scored is random I'd say Semi is a 0.5 / 4.5 = 1/9th chance of being our first try scorer.

If the bet is First Try Scorer in the Match (for either team), then you'd have to also consider how many tries the opposition score on average. If the opposition score 6 per game on average then Semi's chances of being first are 0.5 / (4.5 + 6) = approx 1/20. So you'd need a price of $21.00 for it to be a fair bet.

All of this assumes that there's nothing that systematically causes some players to score earlier in games, and other to score later etc.

If you can be bothered, you can work out how much the entire market is set against you.

If you take the dividend offered for each player, and divide 1 by this dividend

Eg. if Semi is $9 , 1/ 9 = 11.11%, Joe blogs is $15, 1/ 15 = 6.66% etc

Do it for every player. Add up the percentages. If the market is a perfectly fair bet (it wont be) they will add up to 100%. The greater the difference between the actual percentage and 100% the bigger the bookies margin. Starting price at the races might be as good as 105%. The take on exotic bets is often well in excess of 15% and much more where fixed prices are offered.

* if you are quoted odds rather than dividends 1 / (Odds +1)

Again, this ignores a number of complications.

f**king hell. That's a lot of maths.

OK, if we accept that Semi scores in 50% of games, and this is first tryscorer of the match, things are not looking good. But, if he does score, you get your stake back, which is the interesting bit here.

Also, the Panthers have scored 170 points to Parra's 200, (let's say 4 tries per game) which moves things in favour of profit, in this case anyway. First tryscorer is available at most bookies, so I was thinking that the bookies margin is somewhere around 8 or 9%.

Anyway, if his chances then of scoring at all are 50%, and his chances of being the first to score are 1/18 (just a guess), is it now a good bet?

 

[strider]

Well, that's a tricky one even if we assume that players have the same average strike rate across the season, regardless of opposition / conditions etc. There's no useful magic formula, but a basic approach might include (this is a gross simplification....and I'm doing it off the top of my head so I might f**k something up:

If the bet is for Parra 1st try scorer:

How often does Semi score (50% of games, say)?
Pretend the rest of the team selected are one player (with a really big name like RobinsonHoppaTakaMorgsCoreySandow.......). How often do they collectively score (say 4 times per game = 400% of games).

Then I'd probably say well, there a 50% chance of Semi scoring at all, so he score half a try a game. However, with the rest of our team scoring on average 4 tries per game, and assuming the order of tries scored is random I'd say Semi is a 0.5 / 4.5 = 1/9th chance of being our first try scorer.

If the bet is First Try Scorer in the Match (for either team), then you'd have to also consider how many tries the opposition score on average. If the opposition score 6 per game on average then Semi's chances of being first are 0.5 / (4.5 + 6) = approx 1/20. So you'd need a price of $21.00 for it to be a fair bet.

All of this assumes that there's nothing that systematically causes some players to score earlier in games, and other to score later etc.

If you can be bothered, you can work out how much the entire market is set against you.

If you take the dividend offered for each player, and divide 1 by this dividend

Eg. if Semi is $9 , 1/ 9 = 11.11%, Joe blogs is $15, 1/ 15 = 6.66% etc

Do it for every player. Add up the percentages. If the market is a perfectly fair bet (it wont be) they will add up to 100%. The greater the difference between the actual percentage and 100% the bigger the bookies margin. Starting price at the races might be as good as 105%. The take on exotic bets is often well in excess of 15% and much more where fixed prices are offered.

* if you are quoted odds rather than dividends 1 / (Odds +1)

Again, this ignores a number of complications.

ok - so I was with you up until the bit where you said "How often does Semi score (50% of games, say)?"

can you go over the bit after that again?

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

And thanks mate, for something off the top of your head that's pretty darn impressive.

 

[strider]

f**king hell. That's a lot of maths.

OK, if we accept that Semi scores in 50% of games, and this is first tryscorer of the match, things are not looking good. But, if he does score, you get your stake back, which is the interesting bit here.

Also, the Panthers have scored 170 points to Parra's 200, (let's say 4 tries per game) which moves things in favour of profit, in this case anyway. First tryscorer is available at most bookies, so I was thinking that the bookies margin is somewhere around 8 or 9%.

Anyway, if his chances then of scoring at all are 50%, and his chances of being the first to score are 1/18 (just a guess), is it now a good bet?

my mathematical genius brain will add this fact

parra have only scored first in 1 game this year ..... so only expect to maybe get your money back

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

The most accurate math is that he is a 1 in 34 chance of scoring first. More likely 1 in 26. The rest is just speculation

Yes, that's the easier way of doing it

I knew there must be an easier way. :lol:

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

f**king hell. That's a lot of maths.

OK, if we accept that Semi scores in 50% of games, and this is first tryscorer of the match, things are not looking good. But, if he does score, you get your stake back, which is the interesting bit here.

Also, the Panthers have scored 170 points to Parra's 200, (let's say 4 tries per game) which moves things in favour of profit, in this case anyway. First tryscorer is available at most bookies, so I was thinking that the bookies margin is somewhere around 8 or 9%.

Anyway, if his chances then of scoring at all are 50%, and his chances of being the first to score are 1/18 (just a guess), is it now a good bet?

No. If it is true that he is roughly an 1/18 chance of being the first scorer, you need a dividend of $19 to make that a break-even proposition.

As, I suggested above, my version of the maths assumes a lot of stuff away. I've never really thought about 1st scorer markets.....it's probably fair to say that some players are systematically more likely to score earlier than others (e.g. if a hooker scores, it is likely to be later in the first half, when markers are tired.......some players don't take the field til later etc).

Typically the first scorer markets are a giant rip off, but every now and then they do something stupid.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

ok - so I was with you up until the bit where you said "How often does Semi score (50% of games, say)?"

can you go over the bit after that again?

:lol:

my mathematical genius brain will add this fact

parra have only scored first in 1 game this year ..... so only expect to maybe get your money back

That's surprising, for a team that seems to do reasonably well in the first half.

 

[strider]

i only ever bet on first try scorer .... i guess that's why I rarely f**kin win :lol:

but the 1 in 200 bets that I do win - it's f**king awesome!!!!!

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

my mathematical genius brain will add this fact

parra have only scored first in 1 game this year ..... so only expect to maybe get your money back

Yes, and that's one of the things I assumed away....that some teams systematically score earlier /later in the game.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

No. If it is true that he is roughly an 1/18 chance of being the first scorer, you need a dividend of $19 to make that a break-even proposition.

As, I suggested above, my version of the maths assumes a lot of stuff away. I've never really thought about 1st scorer markets.....it's probably fair to say that some players are systematically more likely to score earlier than others (e.g. if a hooker scores, it is likely to be later in the first half, when markers are tired.......some players don't take the field til later etc).

Typically the first scorer markets are a giant rip off, but every now and then they do something stupid.

Wait, don't you need to add the chances of getting your money back (50% of the time in this case) to your chances of him being first tryscorer?

Also I suppose Semi's chances are relatively higher than the hookers, as you say.

edit: a simple calc in this case would mean that you've doubled your odds (given the 50%)? And if we assume the 1/18 is correct, it becomes an even money proposition (at the $9)?

 

[parra pete]

Strong, mobile and has a great work ethic.

He won't let us down.

This is how good he is..On fire..Hi ho silver awaaaaaaaaaay.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qK-9eIF2yI

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

i only ever bet on first try scorer .... i guess that's why I rarely f**kin win :lol:

but the 1 in 200 bets that I do win - it's f**king awesome!!!!!

:lol: They are nice thou. I think I could count on one hand the number of times I've got one, but I rarely bet on it. I had no idea the margins were so high in bookies favour on this market.

 

[strider]

here's my hot tip for the night .... Morgs first try scorer .... get on it merkins