Team vs Panthers

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Wait, don't you need to add the chances of getting your money back (50% of the time in this case) to your chances of him being first tryscorer?

Also I suppose Semi's chances are relatively higher than the hookers, as you say.

edit: a simple calc in this case would mean that you've doubled your odds (given the 50%)? And if we assume the 1/18 is correct, it becomes an even money proposition (at the $9)?

Sorry, missed that part of your original post. Yes, so your true odds on the main part of the bet stay the same. You can't just add the 50% chance to those odds, because the payoff is not the same.

You are betting $1 on an event that has a 1/18 chance of paying $9 back, and 50% chance of paying $1 back.

So your expected return on your dollar = 1/18 x $9 + 50% of $1 = $1.000, so exactly a fair bet given those assumptions (all of which may be crap).

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

here's my hot tip for the night .... Morgs first try scorer .... get on it merkins

I think I put a $5 bonus bet on Morgs for last week, the bludger.

 

[strider]

I think I put a $5 bonus bet on Morgs for last week, the bludger.

yeah but last week he never had hoppa inside him setting him up ..... by my maths that means he's 99% more likely to score first off a hoppa pass

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Sorry, missed that part of your original post. Yes, so your true odds on the main part of the bet stay the same. You can't just add the 50% chance to those odds, because the payoff is not the same.

You are betting $1 on an event that has a 1/18 chance of paying $9 back, and 50% chance of paying $1 back.

So your expected return on your dollar = 1/18 x $9 + 50% of $1 = $1.000, so exactly a fair bet given those assumptions (all of which may be crap).

Ahh, I feared that might be the case. I know there's a lot of rubbery figures in there (the 1/18 was a guesstimate for a start) but it's not looking like the deal I thought it might be. And given our shitty defence (258 points against, versus the Panfer's 174), it gets worse again. Oh well, might just put $10 on instead of the $100.

Thanks Baz, some nice work there.

 

[Stagger eel]

20 of us a here to not only support the eels but an ex work colleague who's proudly making his debut tonight...

Go get em Polar!!!

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

yeah but last week he never had hoppa inside him setting him up ..... by my maths that means he's 99% more likely to score first off a hoppa pass

Well it's decided, Morgs it is!! (But only for $5)

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Yeh, get 'em Polar. I'm sure he'll give it his all

 

[hindy111]

Watch a guy called Matt moylan.He is only 23 and he is a joy too watch. One of the best talents ive seen in a long long time.

 

[hindy111]

BTW 10/11 games parra has not scored the first try.Surely we get one soon?

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

BTW 10/11 games parra has not scored the first try.Surely we get one soon?

Yep, we're due. I'm pretty sure that's how it works.

 

[strider]

BTW 10/11 games parra has not scored the first try.Surely we get one soon?

Yep, we're due. I'm pretty sure that's how it works.

well there you go - I'm putting $100 on every one of our f**kin players

 

[Someone]

we rarely score first because from the get go we are usually the undisciplined side. the amount of times we give away a cheap penalty in the first defending set is a f**king joke. Its like clockwork.

in the first set for the panthers, tackle 3-4 a penalty will be blown.

 

[Stagger eel]

Yeh, get 'em Polar. I'm sure he'll give it his all

A better kid you'll never meet... He's worked damn hard to get here deserves his shot

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

well there you go - I'm putting $100 on every one of our f**kin players

Oh wait, did I forget to say that you only get your money back on the first bet? Never mind, when Timmy gets over first, you'll be sweet.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

we rarely score first because from the get go we are usually the undisciplined side. the amount of times we give away a cheap penalty in the first defending set is a f**king joke. Its like clockwork.

in the first set for the panthers, tackle 3-4 a penalty will be blown.

Yep, bloody annoying stuff.

Anyway, Go The Mighty Eels!!

 

[TheParraboy]

canary yellow it is..

Eels by 7 or panthers by 36

 

[strider]

Oh wait, did I forget to say that you only get your money back on the first bet? Never mind, when Timmy gets over first, you'll be sweet.

oh shit -i've already bet on half the team!!!

no - I bet on 2 players for 1st try scorer per game

usually 1 back and one forward (cos forwards make it all the sweeter the 1 in 200 bets if you win)

but today I just don't see a forward getting over ... mannah and wicks never force their way over ... mau used up his 1 try in 10 games last week - similar with watmough the week before - tepai - maybe

so today I went Morgs $5 - cos hoppa will definitely set him up

and sandow $4 - cos the little bugger can sniff out a try


$9 outlay - I'm a f**kin bgi time gambler baby!!

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

I'm sticking with Eels by 10.

 

[El Diablo]

first try scorer will be the Panthers courtesy of the referee

 

[Eelementary]

Watch a guy called Matt moylan.He is only 23 and he is a joy too watch. One of the best talents ive seen in a long long time.

Please - by 23, Hayne had already played 14 Origins.

Best talent you've seen in a long time...please!