My view on Manly is that if they continue as is, eventually they will fall too far behind to be viable.
Here's the situation.
Eels, Souths, Roosters, Bulldogs are playing out of large, modern facilities. Despite the whinging from the grass hill brigade, they draw more fans on average than suburban grounds. If Parra and Bulldogs are successful, they have potential to average over 20k. Roosters and Souths enjoy strong corporate support on the back of those stadiums, even if the crowds aren't as high. They're guaranteed a couple of 30k+ crowds a year. Sponsorships hold higher value. Facilities are better.
That puts them at an immediate financial advantage to the suburban clubs. And of the suburban clubs, currently Manly sit at the bottom of the pile. #9 in Sydney. Historical success is their only strength, and if they fall further behind financially they might find that difficult to recapture. V'Landys claims that suburban grounds will have their glorious day in the sun again, but I don't believe it. By the time the government comes round to spending hundreds of millions on single tenant council parks, we may find the NRL has a new boss and a new direction. We've heard it all before about Brookvale.
Being the worst-placed of 9 clubs in a city is not a good place to be. It's a big hill to climb every year. What are the options?
In order of least drastic to most...
a) Continue as is.
No significant change of direction.
They maintain their purity and represent their area, but it is hard to see them ever being a serious force again unless the government is swindled into putting $200M into Brookvale and their administration is operating at maximum potential. Falling too far behind for viability in first grade is a risk, especially if the Penns get sick of putting money in.
b) Significant effort to grow the brand.
Launch a takeover of North Sydney's area once and for all. Play 2-3 marquee games a year at the new SFS. Play the NSW Cup team out of Gosford.
This is basically the "administration operating at maximum potential" outcome. They need to shake things up with the NRL, with the Bears, and get some big crowds in a couple of times a year. Basically - become the Roosters. Brookvale still needs a significant upgrade.
c) Northern Eagles: Redux
Relocate first grade team back to Gosford as the Central Coast Sea Eagles. Play NSW Cup out of Brookvale. Promote hard in the Bears territory in between, especially the upper north shore.
You would lose some of the local support but gain more regional support. As a regional city team (Central Coast being one of Australia's largest) you would get more dedicated government and sponsor support, rather than sitting at the bottom of the Sydney pile. The stadium Gosford is a quality facility and with an NRL team full time would have a good chance of future upgrades. Strategically, it would place the club in a stronger geographical position within the NRL, while retaining strong links to northern Sydney. Could even petition for an expansion grant from the NRL.
d) Perth? Adelaide?
Full relocation.
Tbh I don't think the club is a particularly good fit for this option so I won't go on about it. The identity is very tied to the northern beaches, and while Central Coast is a reasonably natural extension, I don't think the club has the brand appeal or the administrative chops to make a success of a cross country leap. And there is value in having a club representing the north-of-sydney region, whether from the Beaches or the Central Coast, so it would be difficult to lose that.
I think... A is likely, unfortunately. B is possible and a good aim to modernise the club. C is the most beneficial for the club and the sport, and has a higher potential ceiling, but is probably too ambitious for a conservative club in a conservative sport.
