The Run Home

[OldPanther]

Not even that. Take WT on -60 for example. We can have 2 1 point losses if they win 2 in a row by even 6. They jump us so far from safe yet

The argument wasn't that we are safe it's that we don't have as far to go to catch up as people think. Our last 2 wins have caught us up to those around us.

 

[herbert henry1908]

We've reached the point where 4 from 7 will get us 8th.

To make the top 4 we have to beat Canberra and Roosters and rely on them meeting one another. That would put us level with one of them, but with for and against to be made up. The Rabbitohs have such a creamy draw we're not catching them, and the Storm are long gone.

Even with our bad for and against, 26 points will likely get us in the 8.

The teams on 17 & 16 points would need a 5 or 6 from 7 to jump us.

 

[herbert henry1908]

Looking closer at the draw, I’m starting to think 24 points might even make 8th spot this year. The teams sitting between 7th to 13th have a lot of games against each other to come.

 

[OldPanther]

Looking closer at the draw, I’m starting to think 24 points might even make 8th spot this year. The teams sitting between 7th to 13th have a lot of games against each other to come.

Has it ever been that low? Unless we have a massive collapse from here I doubt we miss the finals.

 

[herbert henry1908]

Has it ever been that low? Unless we have a massive collapse from here I doubt we miss the finals.

Yes. 2007 the broncos made it on 24.

Similar situation with the storm being run away leaders that year too.

 

[franklin2323]

24 is good for us. I don't see us beating Canberra or Roosters. We never beat the Sharks and have a shocking record in Queensland. Should beat Knights and Bulldogs though

 

[mxlegend99]

Theres so many shit teams this year it definitely looks like the top 8 will be a lower cut off than normal. 28 or 30 are usually the required amount of points to get in... yet i cant see a single team below us getting that many points.

Although we were headed for a spoon and now have 7 in a row. Its possible another side below us could string together a few wins too.

 

[franklin2323]

Theres so many shit teams this year it definitely looks like the top 8 will be a lower cut off than normal. 28 or 30 are usually the required amount of points to get in... yet i cant see a single team below us getting that many points.

Although we were headed for a spoon and now have 7 in a row. Its possible another side below us could string together a few wins too.

That is key. For example Thurs night Sharks play Cows. If Sharks win then we need them to lose the week after or when they play us if they win then they jump us. So win/loss or just losses to help

 

[OldPanther]

That is key. For example Thurs night Sharks play Cows. If Sharks win then we need them to lose the week after or when they play us if they win then they jump us. So win/loss or just losses to help

Not if we win. You are banking on us losing.

 

[TheFrog]

Theres so many shit teams this year it definitely looks like the top 8 will be a lower cut off than normal. 28 or 30 are usually the required amount of points to get in... yet i cant see a single team below us getting that many points.

Although we were headed for a spoon and now have 7 in a row. Its possible another side below us could string together a few wins too.

Last year was the first year of 1 bye, which took 2 off the table for everyone. The top 8 was exceptional last year in that 1st and 8th was separated by just one win. So 5 to 8 took wins from 1 to 4, and so 8th place had 15 wins and 1st had 16. That is not going to be the case this year.

If the table was evenly spread, ie the top 4 won the same number as the bottom 4 lost, you'd need 50% of wins if 50% of teams make the finals. If there's a lot of "shit" teams you'd have a cluster at the bottom with wins only against one another and this would raise the 8th position requirement. It's not so much that there are a lot of "shit" teams, more there are a lot of midrange teams taking wins off each other and off the top sides as well. This is what forces 8th down. The midrange is 5th to 14th, separated by four wins after Manly or Parra win today. The Dragons still have a chance if the middle teams knock each other about. There are only 2 shit teams really, and even they are taking wins from the higher teams.

 

[franklin2323]

Not if we win. You are banking on us losing.

We always lose to the Sharks. Even their reserve grade team beat us earlier in the year.

 

[OldPanther]

We always lose to the Sharks. Even their reserve grade team beat us earlier in the year.

Yes but I'd say the rest are 50/50. I agree that the Raiders will show our true quality.

 

[franklin2323]

Yes but I'd say the rest are 50/50. I agree that the Raiders will show our true quality.

Our record in QLD is shocking too. On paper we should win but same could be said for the 2 we already lost this year up there

 

[BxTom]

24 is good for us. I don't see us beating Canberra or Roosters. We never beat the Sharks and have a shocking record in Queensland. Should beat Knights and Bulldogs though

I am hoping that not only do we beat them, but that we knock them out of finals contention!

 

[Panfa]

I think we will win most of our games only chooks or broncos are a chance of beating us if ashley klein or gerrard sutton are reffing lol.

 

[Thirsty Panther]

Next week could be very good for us.

1- We play the Dragons at home.
2- The 2 teams one win ahead of us on the ladder play each other (Manly V Eels)
3- The team equal with us on the ladder (Knights) plays the Roosters away.
4- The Sharks one win behind us play the Warriors away.
5- The Tigers also one win behind us play the Raiders away.
6- The Cowboys also one win behind play Souths at home.

Round 18 is done and its been a perfect result for us.
1- we beat the Dragons
2- Eels lost keeping them on 20 points the sames as us
3- Knights lost, keeping them on 18 points
4- Sharks lost to the Warriors keeping them on 16 points. 2 wins behind us, and the Warriors would need to win 2 games to pass us as well
5- Tigers lost keeping them 2 wins away
6- Cowboys also lost keeping them on 16 points also 2 wins away

All in all as good a result as we could of hoped for.
Those teams in front of us keep winning making top 4 difficult to achieve, however those behind keep losing making top 8 very achievable for us. Top 5/6 with a home final gives us some chance of being a real chance for a Gran Final appearance.

 

[Thirsty Panther]

Looking ahead to round 19
What outcomes favour us the best.

1- We need to beat the Raiders. This is by far the biggest influence of our weekend, win this and nothing else really affects us.
2- Either Sharks or Cowboys will get closer to us (unless we beat the Raiders)
3- We need the Tigers to beat the Knights keeping them both on 18 points
4- Souths V Dragons is the side 6 points in front of us V the team 6 points behind us. A Dragon win useful but not a major influence and not very likely unless Mary gets sacked during the week
5- Warriors win over the Eels would help
6- A Titans win over the Broncos would help
7- Storm beating Manly would help
8- Bulldogs beating the Roosters would be helpful. Did I just type that?

Lest see what happens......

 

[TheFrog]

Yes. 2007 the broncos made it on 24.

Similar situation with the storm being run away leaders that year too.

Not only that but the bottom 2 had 17 wins, whereas the top 2 only had 9 losses. Also sides 9-12 were all within one win of 8th. This year is shaping up similarly but we'll have to wait and see.

 

[TheFrog]

Top 5/6 with a home final gives us some chance of being a real chance for a Gran Final appearance.

4th place not impossible but we MUST beat the Raiders, who have the Roosters and Storm coming up. They are beatable. They scored their last points in the 24th minute yesterday.

 

[Abacus]

Interesting to read the plaudits for Jimmy from Gallen & Lockyer.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nr...8/news-story/a0b03cae0aaabf96fd3c068572d553e4

With him coming through Origin apparently unscathed and his confidence up like it is atm, I think he's capable of leading the club to a comp if he can keep it going.