Paranoia over News Ltd's possible involvement in NRL television rights negotiations would cost the code millions of dollars, warned one network chief, following demands by club bosses that an independent commission be formalised before talks on a new broadcasting contract commence.
An AFL deal is likely to be signed within the next two months, with the existing broadcasters retaining their rights, meaning the league's rival code threatens to empty the coffers of Channels Seven, Ten and Foxtel, leaving it with only one or two TV suitors after it finally chooses its eight commissioners.
The News Ltd-managed Foxtel and Fox Sports will bid for both AFL and NRL but because News Ltd is a half-owner of the NRL, club bosses want the media conglomerate out of the code and a commission installed before broadcasting negotiations begin. Yet this is classic cart-before-the-horse thinking, according to one network heavy.
''Without the TV dollars, rugby league's new commission is stuffed, anyway,'' he said. ''The AFL is trying to scoop up all the money to finance their push into Sydney and the Gold Coast. If the NRL don't move soon and strike a deal, there'll be nothing left.''
Yet this same haste led rugby league to do a $500-million, six-year deal with Channel Nine and Fox Sports in 2005, leaving the code embarrassed when, six months later, Nine owner Kerry Packer found $780m over five years for AFL.
As it transpired, Seven/Ten exercised their option to equal the offer and won the rights and are now expected to retain them.
However, negotiations continue over the final price to be paid, with AFL chief Andrew Demetriou pushing for a $1 billion deal, while network bosses expect the figure to be in the $800m-$900m range.
''The AFL's problem is that Melbourne is its only major market, with Adelaide and Perth minor markets,'' one industry source said. ''The great thing for the NRL is they have Sydney and Brisbane.''
If the networks can entice NRL into the bidding, it will establish competitive tension with AFL and lower expectations. But Demetriou knows he has the market to himself while the NRL, whose deal expires in 2012 - a year after the conclusion of the AFL contract - continues to insist an commission must be operational before negotiations on a new broadcasting contract begin.
News Ltd, anxious to rid itself of accusations of conflict of interest, supports this stance. But experienced negotiator Ian Frykberg is acting for Foxtel, which wants better quality games to drive subscriptions in the southern and western states.
If Foxtel empty their coffers for AFL, News Ltd's march to the high moral ground will cost rugby league anyway. Although NRL outrates AFL on pay TV, it would be ironic if, yet again, the southern code receives more than rugby league from the News Ltd-controlled Fox entities.
Ten is contractually bound to bid with Seven for AFL and has partly resolved its share of costs after the Ten board complained it was paying too much for games which did not rate in Sydney and Brisbane.
The federal government recently changed the anti-siphoning laws, preserving only two games for free-to-air TV, meaning Foxtel can bid for higher-quality fixtures than it was allocated in the past.
The government also relaxed laws allowing a free-to-air network's digital channels to show AFL and NRL. This means a network like Seven can bid for both codes, providing the price is right.
''Seven can mix and match AFL and NRL on Friday nights, showing both codes in the relevant markets on its main channels, with AFL in the north and NRL in the south on its digital channels,'' one industry observer said. ''It could be back to days when Rex Mossop did rugby league and Melbourne's Ron Casey hosted AFL, both on Seven.''
One potential commissioner said NRL concern over News Ltd conflict of interest and the AFL dominating the TV dollars could be resolved if David Gallop went to the networks now, with a tender box and offers scrutinised by a top accounting firm.
