WA BEARS

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

11 RL clubs to 7 AFL clubs. They aren't far behind.

Quite a few Victorians live up there.

 

[Jamberoo]

Quite a few Victorians live up there.

Port Douglas is full of Victorians.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Port Douglas is full of Victorians.

First the cane toads invaded...

Now we've got to put up with this!

 

[Wb1234]

11 RL clubs to 7 AFL clubs. They aren't far behind

Lol

 

[Canard]

AFL Cairns appears "big" by virtue of having one of the biggest Leagues Clubs in Australia, which by a quirk of fate ended up being very well placed in the centre of town.

AFL is not remotely close in terms of support or standard to the CDRL.

A current NRL coach and current Origin player both developed in the CDRL. Cairns is RL heartland through and through.

AFL Cairns players have a ciggie at half time and a meat pie whilst sitting on the bench.

It's still to small for the NRL though.

 

[mongoose]

AFL Cairns appears "big" by virtue of having one of the biggest Leagues Clubs in Australia, which by a quirk of fate ended up being very well placed in the centre of town.

AFL is not remotely close in terms of support or standard to the CDRL.

A current NRL coach and current Origin player both developed in the CDRL. Cairns is RL heartland through and through.

AFL Cairns players have a ciggie at half time and a meat pie whilst sitting on the bench.

It's still to small for the NRL though.

its the same claim they make about being big on the Gold Coast because the Southport Sharks are a very large and cashed up club, but League is far more entrenched on the Gold Coast and its surrounds despite what this board says about the place....

 

[Vee]

How does this topic warrant almost 2600 posts in two months?

It's beyond me. I'd be more interested in the merits of Valvoline over Penrite.

TBF, a lot of it is off-topic.

 

[Perth Red]

TBF, a lot of it is off-topic.

Thats unusual for on here!

 

[MugaB]

Thats unusual for on here!

No necessarily, most of it is ABSOLUTE dribble from backwardarsedloganite talking down anything bears or sydney related

 

[Perth Red]

No necessarily, most of it is ABSOLUTE dribble from backwardarsedloganite talking down anything bears or sydney related

haha it may not be necessary, but it is very usual! They need to make me a moderator, Id sort it out

 

[LeagueXIII]

They are already pushing for the upgrade to cairns stadium for the world cup, aswell as trying to join the P.N.G bid, 2ndly the cowboys have plenty of area to cover and cairns is as far away from Townsville as Newcastle is to Wollongong, probably further, its called FAR north QLD for a reason...
As far as Wellington and the bears i just was picking areas not exactly the teams that would reside there... anyways those 7 expansion spots could see out the NRL forever, in a 24 team comp, covering all areas of Australia and Pacific, can split into 3×8 conferences or 2×12, 4×6 or even 6x4

Agreed, I said on this forum years ago we should be aiming for 24 teams and have conferences.
Grow the game as a whole.

 

[Perth Red]

Agreed, I said on this forum years ago we should be aiming for 24 teams and have conferences.
Grow the game as a whole.

Sounds good in theory but there is a finite resource on club sponsors, quality players and TV contracts. Unless the TV landscape changes dramatically we are at saturation at 18 clubs really in terms of value for stand alone game spots. Game 9 is likely going to be 6pm Sunday game. After that you've not really got any more unique game slots left. Monday night is fraught with scheduling and turn around problems, creates over saturation of the tv product and sees clubs struggle to realise fan revenue.

Of course if streaming changes our main stream viewing habits, like it may well do, then you dont need stand alone spots and could have 2-3 games on at same time which would mean less limitations. No sign yet though that TV will continue to pay $50mill a game to cover that.

With grants to clubs now hovering around the $16-17 mill (when you include NRLW and reserve grade grants) you'd need to be looking at least $150-200mill extra on the TV revenue to get to 24 clubs based on todays revenue/expense rates. That's a 50% increase on this Tv deal, which has seen only around a 5% growth on the last deal.

Despite massive NRL grant increases in recent years most clubs still couldn't survive on FC operations alone and still require LC or other funding. We either need to bring clubs expenses down (club expenditure has doubled on avg in the last 10 years) or increase FC revenue so they can stand on their own two feet and any new clubs coming in can be sustainable on the grant plus FC revenue only. That not only opens up expansion options but also sees a more attractive business proposition for investors.

 

[MrE_Assassin]

Agreed, I said on this forum years ago we should be aiming for 24 teams and have conferences.
Grow the game as a whole.

Ok, Let's look at a 24 team comp from a point of broadcasting and Broadcast rights.
First, the conditions... 24 Clubs set in 4 conferences of 6 teams. I'll name them after players for S & Gs.

Messenger: Roosters, Souths, Titans, WA, NZ2 (Orcas maybe), Dragons

Meninga: Broncos, Cowboys, Sharks, Tigers, Canberra, PNG

Jones (or some other Kiwi/Maori player): Warriors, Sea Eagles, Dogs, Storm, Dolphins, CC

Coote: Knights, Parra, Panthers, Bris 3, Melb 2, Adelaide

Each conference has at least one rivalry or derby. Every Conference has NSW, QLD and an Affiliate state or country

Noting that both FTA and PTV will have limited ability to show all games live and uninterrupted due to double ups in the schedule. FTA could show games by region (eg. Ch 9 in Perth would show specifically Perth games + a few others, Melb would broadcast both Melb teams + a few "Games of the week" etc) or sell of broadcast rights for each individual conference or specific clubs to various FTA providers (don't rely solely on Ch 9. This also makes the market more competitive as the game day broadcast needs to be spectacular or you could be losing more content to a rival).

PTV would have to set up multiple channels (Fox League 1, 2 and possibly 3) and the broadcast would have to rely heavily on streaming (eg, pick the games you want to watch), replay others you're not overly interested in.

Play each team in your conference twice, then the other 12 games are made up of teams outside the conference. Yes, this means that you don't play everyone in the year; however this is what happens in the NFL, you just rotate through the teams outside your conference that you would play against.

Stand alone Rep/ International weeks at the middle of the season. This means there are no byes per se, but a still content for broadcasters to play.

Just a hipshot idea, and obviously needs fine tuning but could be a realistic future in 50 years.

 

[Perth Red]

Personally Id rather see an eventual 20 team comp with every team playing each other once plus 2 magic weekends for a 21 round comp. Origin and mid season internationals on stand alone weekends to take it up to a 24 week regular season. Who the 20 teams are, well that the NRL can sort that sht out.
Then a proper reserve grade for those 20 clubs and finally a genuine second division for the clubs that dont make the 20 top team comp.

We would end up with 30-34 professional clubs across two divisions.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

How do we produce enough quality players to fill 24 rosters when participation isn't growing?

If we're honest there isn't enough talent to cover 16 squads with quality half-backs, five-eights, fullbacks and dummy-halves.

Titans have gone from being a top eight team in 2021 to last after losing their experienced journeymen halfback and dummy-half. Neither were world beaters, but they organised the team and got the ball where it needed to go. The club replaced them with young guns who aren't ready.

 

[Perth Red]

How do we produce enough quality players to fill 24 rosters when participation isn't growing?

If we're honest there isn't enough talent to cover 16 squads with quality half-backs, five-eights, fullbacks and dummy-halves.

Titans have gone from being a top eight team in 2021 to last after losing their experienced journeymen halfback and dummy-half. Neither were world beaters, but they organised the team and got the ball where it needed to go. The club replaced them with young guns who aren't ready.

I've still yet to see any research that shows that talent production is a numbers game rather than a quality of pathways game. So lets say there are 100k kids playing Rl now, and out of that 100k kids we get 50 a year make the NRL first grade. Hypothetically If we doubled the number of kids playing to 200k would that mean we would A) get 100 kids a year ready for NRL first grade or B) still only get 50 kids making first grade but they would be better quality or C) neither?

The argument over talent in first grade always seems to focus on participation numbers but I'm not so sure. I think quality of coaching, training, nutrition, psychology, talent spotting pathway to 1st grade in your city etc etc could be equally, if not more, important for jnr systems. Some evidence that backs up my theory:

1. Panthers have always had a massive jnr participation region but only in recent years have they got serious about offering a very high quality pathway experience. This is now showing in the quality of first grader they are bringing through has improved significantly.

2. In the lead up to a country hosting the Olympics they spend a lot of money on sports preparation, participation numbers in those sports dont go up yet performance does as the host countries often get record medal hauls.

3. Despite a few thousand jnrs in Victoria the money spent on grassroots there is a pittance and has failed to produce any significant talent despite having a successful 1st grade team for 25 years.

4. PNG has a massive playing pool, yet has produced very few NRL players

5. NFL has expanded number of teams significantly but there has not been any significant increase in college players during that period, yet the NFL quality has not been diluted.

So is it numbers or systems thats the problem? Personally I think its more systems.

 

[MugaB]

I've still yet to see any research that shows that talent production is a numbers game rather than a quality of pathways game. So lets say there are 100k kids playing Rl now, and out of that 100k kids we get 50 a year make the NRL first grade. Hypothetically If we doubled the number of kids playing to 200k would that mean we would A) get 100 kids a year ready for NRL first grade or B) still only get 50 kids making first grade but they would be better quality or C) neither?

The argument over talent in first grade always seems to focus on participation numbers but I'm not so sure. I think quality of coaching, training, nutrition, psychology, talent spotting pathway to 1st grade in your city etc etc could be equally, if not more, important for jnr systems. Some evidence that backs up my theory:

1. Panthers have always had a massive jnr participation region but only in recent years have they got serious about offering a very high quality pathway experience. This is now showing in the quality of first grader they are bringing through has improved significantly.

2. In the lead up to a country hosting the Olympics they spend a lot of money on sports preparation, participation numbers in those sports dont go up yet performance does as the host countries often get record medal hauls.

3. Despite a few thousand jnrs in Victoria the money spent on grassroots there is a pittance and has failed to produce any significant talent despite having a successful 1st grade team for 25 years.

4. PNG has a massive playing pool, yet has produced very few NRL players

5. NFL has expanded number of teams significantly but there has not been any significant increase in college players during that period, yet the NFL quality has not been diluted.

So is it numbers or systems thats the problem? Personally I think its more systems.

PNGs pathways aren't all about the Hunters only, they have the Digicup competition, plus covid has affected the hunters much like the warriors have been stationed in or around Australia, i'd dare say if PNG were a NRL side it would have better chance at showcasing their talent, and this stage might take a few years just like what New Zealand is going thru with their talent in regards to the warriors

 

[Perth Red]

PNGs pathways aren't all about the Hunters only, they have the Digicup competition, plus covid has affected the hunters much like the warriors have been stationed in or around Australia, i'd dare say if PNG were a NRL side it would have better chance at showcasing their talent, and this stage might take a few years just like what New Zealand is going thru with their talent in regards to the warriors

I think if we had opportunities for the Best PNG 15 year olds to move into Aus systems like the Kiwi kids do then we would undoubtably see more PNG talent in first grade. When we get our Pirates Academy set up in Port Moresby

 

[MugaB]

I think if we had opportunities for the Best PNG 15 year olds to move into Aus systems like the Kiwi kids do then we would undoubtably see more PNG talent in first grade. When we get our Pirates Academy set up in Port Moresby

Again with this.. seriously wheres Perths acedemy for 15yr old WA players , Id suggest South Africa is a better idea that PNG..... if PNG 15 yrs old are going into an acedemy they shant be traveling all t he way to Perth to play S.G ball, when they can possibly play in QCup

 

[LeagueXIII]

Sounds good in theory but there is a finite resource on club sponsors, quality players and TV contracts. Unless the TV landscape changes dramatically we are at saturation at 18 clubs really in terms of value for stand alone game spots. Game 9 is likely going to be 6pm Sunday game. After that you've not really got any more unique game slots left. Monday night is fraught with scheduling and turn around problems, creates over saturation of the tv product and sees clubs struggle to realise fan revenue.

Of course if streaming changes our main stream viewing habits, like it may well do, then you dont need stand alone spots and could have 2-3 games on at same time which would mean less limitations. No sign yet though that TV will continue to pay $50mill a game to cover that.

With grants to clubs now hovering around the $16-17 mill (when you include NRLW and reserve grade grants) you'd need to be looking at least $150-200mill extra on the TV revenue to get to 24 clubs based on todays revenue/expense rates. That's a 50% increase on this Tv deal, which has seen only around a 5% growth on the last deal.

Despite massive NRL grant increases in recent years most clubs still couldn't survive on FC operations alone and still require LC or other funding. We either need to bring clubs expenses down (club expenditure has doubled on avg in the last 10 years) or increase FC revenue so they can stand on their own two feet and any new clubs coming in can be sustainable on the grant plus FC revenue only. That not only opens up expansion options but also sees a more attractive business proposition for investors.

Doesnt have to happen in the next 3 years. The game will grow alot over the coming years financially now we are partners with the enemy ie. news corp and nine