Western Corridor NRL bid

[_Johnsy]

I do already. Liverpool has a population of about 200,000 yet we have no NRL team. I am a fan of the NRL (and watch every FTA game). I chose a team to support. One that was moving to Liverpool at the time but never did.

Liverpool to Parramatta - 16km
Liverpool to Campbelltown -23km
Liverpool to ANZ stadium - 25km or to Bankstown 22km
Liverpool to Penrith - 38km
Liverpool to Bondi - 42km
Liverpool to Kogarah - 28km
Liverpool to Manly - 36km
Liverpool to Cronulla - 24km


Yeah I can understand your frustration.

 

[docbrown]

QLD does have a bigger drop off in the ratings and I don't think that's neccessarily attributed to lack of QLD teams.

From what I've seen in the numbers, it appears that viewers in Queensland spike whenever there's a Queensland team involved, much more than they do when no Queensland team is featured. It appears that Queenslanders want to watch the other teams from their state.

You need to understand the logic here. I'm not talking about boosting Queenslander numbers for one game. By having 1 Queensland team feature out of 4 in a double header, the numbers will spike for BOTH GAMES as the viewers will sit through the double session - especially on a Sunday afternoon.

Generally the 2nd (non-live) game on F2A has a bigger drop off in QLD then it does in NSW.

On a Friday though you're competing against the fatigue factor of staying up till 11:30pm. Yes - QLD has a bigger drop off in the 9:30pm game than NSW does but not by a massive margin. Again, this evidence of why it's important to have QLD teams feature and why I have advocated for dual live coverage on 2 channels to maximise the number of 7:30pm viewers.

Even when the 2nd game features for example another QLD based team, the ratings still plummet.

Plummet no? In fact, when there's a QLD team feature in both Friday night games (as happens rarely) the drop off in QLD almost halves. It's a sign that they will tune in for a QLD team.

If that's the case then where do we fit another QLD time slot for a new team without a stadium? Docbrown knows the deal for sure but until we see the Cowboys, Titans and Broncos play on days they normally wouldn't (Cowboys sunday day, Titans friday night & Broncos saturdays) then the ratings jig saw puzzle isn't complete.

Remember, it doesn't have to be a home game for a team to be featured on television. Yes - Saturday nights are the best time for Cowboys home games due to travelling fans - but they can just as easily be featured on a Friday or Sunday game as an away team. Same for any new QLD team.

Now ad's and timeslots aside, a new team still needs a fanbase that will actually turn the TV on and watch them. 2 bids have an established one with one of them already having fans and supporters interstate.

True. Obviously any new bid will need to create a support base but I suspect any new QLD team will be able to do given time and resources.

I honestly believe the CCBEARS will rate as well as any new QLD team at the beginning.

I think the Bears will pull in as many viewers as some existing NRL clubs - indeed hopefully some former viewers who tuned out after Super League & their axing. Understand - I don't view this as a Queensland vs Central Bears issue as you might. I'm also not saying television ratings are the only criteria. The Bears are helping heal old wounds, giving another city their own team and rebuilding on the North shore. I get that and I respect that.

However - talking purely about TV ratings - I do believe that by featuring QLD teams on Fridays & Sundays under this format I've suggested that the F2A total national ratings will increase by about 200,000 to 300,000 every week than what they would without it (assuming 9 games in both scenarios).

That's about 7 to 8 million EXTRA viewers a years on top of what we would expect to get without it. I don't think any other bid - not WA, not CCB, not NZ - can work out an arrangement like that in conjunction with 3 other teams in their state.

Wouldn't QLD teams be playing against a Sydney team? That's 2 out of the 8 teams featured on FTA. That would be 25%.

No. There are other teams which are not included in the Sydney region. (Gold Coast, NQ, Brisbane, 2nd Brisbane, NQ, Newcastle, NZ)

Actually I've already said in weeks where Queensland teams play derby games, they'd already be taking up 2 out of the 8 spots so they'd only feature in one game.

As for Newcastle, they're included under the NSW number and would likewise get 10 to 12 F2A games a year - just like QLD teams and just like all the Sydney teams - and just like Storm/Raiders/Warriors/18th team (CCB/WA/NZ/PNG etc).

100 F2A games a season. 2 teams in a game. 200 spots for teams on F2A.

11.1 F2A games per team on average.

I've said Queensland is 22% of the comp. If they get 44 of those spots, that's 22%. I think I said 45 to 48.

That's pretty fair.

I am coming from a FTA game perspective. If there is four free to air games and two of them involve one of the QLD teams (which under the quote I referenced demanded) that = 50%.

I take it you are not a fan of equity?

Yes but under your system, you can't make NSW F2A total airtime be reduced from the current 95%+ levels.

The reason being that currently with 10 out of 16 (62.5% of the competition) the only way to avoid that is to have games where no NSW teams feature.

But look at the numbers - there are 6 non NSW teams - that means there are 15 possible combinations. If you played them twice, that's 30 games total. But look at the match ups - you can't tell me that Cowboys vs Warriors is going to rate as highly Bulldogs vs Cowboys. Admittedly there are about 8 or so of those interstate match up combinations games of real standing that could be featured during the season. The rest of their games should be against NSW teams. There's no way however that you could set aside 1 game a week EVERY week to feature non-NSW teams. It would be a massive drop in the ratings.

Understand the full dynamics of my proposal:
* Every club gets approximately the same number of F2A games - about 10 minimum a season, more as the season progresses based on performance
* NSW maintains it's current 95% to 100% of airtime
* QLD boosts its airtime from 33% to 55%
* Non QLD & NSW teams (from using the 8th club slot) boost their airtime from 12.5% up to about 30%

Everybody gets guaranteed games. Every region gets the same or more airtime. Everybody benefits.

 

[dgsfan]

Great post. Really insightful. It's laughable that people like johnsy and blackbear try (key word try) to argue it.

 

[BDGS]

How can you claim to be a fan of the game if you avoid watching it.

You can easily bee a fan of the game of Rugby League without watching the NRL. There are plenty of other competitions to watch and support.

I do already. Liverpool has a population of about 200,000 yet we have no NRL team. I am a fan of the NRL (and watch every FTA game). I chose a team to support. One that was moving to Liverpool at the time but never did.

Liverpool is the change over of Bulldogs territory to Wests Tiger territory, you could lay claims that your area is covered by two teams if you really wanted to, You are also not that far away from Parramatta as highlighted below.

Liverpool to Parramatta - 16km
Liverpool to Campbelltown -23km
Liverpool to ANZ stadium - 25km or to Bankstown 22km
Liverpool to Penrith - 38km
Liverpool to Bondi - 42km
Liverpool to Kogarah - 28km
Liverpool to Manly - 36km
Liverpool to Cronulla - 24km


Yeah I can understand your frustration.

 

[Red&BlackBear]

Great post. Really insightful. It's laughable that people like johnsy and blackbear try (key word try) to argue it.

There isn't an arguement because numbers change everyday in all aspects. One year one team will rate well, the next they'll rate not so well. So much depends on success, so much depends on communities getting behind their team regardless. There's so many different scenarios so why you choose to hold on to a single scenario out of a possible 100, well that's the laughable thing.

You say BEARS fans a fickle, well I beg to differ. 12 years onwards and there's still CCBears and old Bear heads banging on the door. 12 years onwards there's still corporate sectors and sponsors behind the BEARS movement. 12 years on there's still alot of $$ in our piggy bank.

Matter of fact it doesn't matter how well person a) or person b) puts it in this forum, the NRL are the ones with the power to flip and change. The same NRL that has talked up the BEARS & Reds bid. The same NRL that gets harrassed on the streets, media, chatrooms, tv shows about the Bears & Reds.

You honestly think they'll screw over a large section of supporters and communities? Well everything points to the contrary my little friend. Gallop has put massive emphasis on regaining the lost fans, establishing a team on the CC and the marketing brand power of the Bears & Reds.

What's laughable is you will hold on to anything that discourages the Bears.. yet most of those things are fabricated by people on here not the people that count. Now take those apples and eat them slowly.

 

[dgsfan]

Like I said... laughable.

 

[Red&BlackBear]

...

 

[docbrown]

There isn't an arguement because numbers change everyday in all aspects. One year one team will rate well, the next they'll rate not so well. So much depends on success, so much depends on communities getting behind their team regardless. There's so many different scenarios so why you choose to hold on to a single scenario out of a possible 100, well that's the laughable thing.

When I advocate these broadcasting scenarios and ratings figures, I'm talking about long term trending over 5 to 10+ years - not a one year once-off success.

That's also how you can tell which clubs are successful and growing their support bases.

Matter of fact it doesn't matter how well person a) or person b) puts it in this forum, the NRL are the ones with the power to flip and change.

True - but - on the same hand I think you do no favours for your own bid if you keep posting on the other bid pages and commenting on them negatively. How is that supposed to attract support? Just leave it to other posters to form their own opinions. They'll see a rubbish bid for what it's worth.

Be measured by your own success. Don't take glory in the failures of others.

 

[_Johnsy]

Great post. Really insightful. It's laughable that people like johnsy and blackbear try (key word try) to argue it.

If you actually read my posts you would see the system I am advocating is not that much different to docbrowns.

I also stated that the stats you use can be used two ways, my stats are correct, as are docbrowns.

Try to keep up son.

 

[_Johnsy]

Don't take glory in the failures of others.

schadenfreude (Schaden = damage/harm & Freude = Joy) - is pleasure derived from the misfortunes of others.

It is amazing how some languages can sum up a phrase so perfectly in one word.

 

[docbrown]

schadenfreude (Schaden = damage/harm & Freude = Joy) - is pleasure derived from the misfortunes of others.

It is amazing how some languages can sum up a phrase so perfectly in one word.

Funny that, I was paraphrasing Confucious. However, don't ask me how to say it in Mandarin.

 

[bobmar28]

So TV networks should decide the future of our game instead of communities and the people who follow/live the game? What happens when like everything else the demographics change for the TV networks? Kill the teams off and replace them with new ones? Leave them to die? Prop them indefinitely?

For expansion purposes I believe the IC should talk to the networks to find out which bids they think would add more value to the rights. Of course the bids must have community support but I can't see Queenslanders not wanting another team.

 

[Quidgybo]

It is also 50% of 4 FTA games, look at the post above. Stats are easy to manipulate, both ways suit both differing arguments.:roll:

Yes they can be manipulated, exactly as you are doing. You ignore the fact that with two teams involved in any match, a single game can appeal to both Queensland and non Queensland markets. With four FTA games each week it would mean that only 2 out of 8 available FTA slots are filled by Queensland teams (25%). But instead you argue the unfairness that 50% of games feature a Queensland team while totally overlooking the fact that argument also means almost 100% of games feature a non Queensland team. That sounds totally unfair and I think Queenslanders should immediately grab their pitch forks to march for justice.

Leigh.

 

[andrew057]

So has there been any more news regarding this bid? Do they have a website up? All seems very quiet.

 

[dgsfan]

Yes they can be manipulated, exactly as you are doing. You ignore the fact that with two teams involved in any match, a single game can appeal to both Queensland and non Queensland markets. With four FTA games each week it would mean that only 2 out of 8 available FTA slots are filled by Queensland teams (25%). But instead you argue the unfairness that 50% of games feature a Queensland team while totally overlooking the fact that argument also means almost 100% of games feature a non Queensland team. That sounds totally unfair and I think Queenslanders should immediately grab their pitch forks to march for justice.

Leigh.

Great post. Logical but I guess it will take another pwning of Johnsy for him to realise.

 

[_Johnsy]

Yes they can be manipulated, exactly as you are doing. You ignore the fact that with two teams involved in any match, a single game can appeal to both Queensland and non Queensland markets. With four FTA games each week it would mean that only 2 out of 8 available FTA slots are filled by Queensland teams (25%). But instead you argue the unfairness that 50% of games feature a Queensland team while totally overlooking the fact that argument also means almost 100% of games feature a non Queensland team. That sounds totally unfair and I think Queenslanders should immediately grab their pitch forks to march for justice.

Leigh.

Leigh,

I think you'll find I acknowledged that fact some time ago.

Almost 100%???? That would depend on the schedule of games. The point (bolded) you are trying to make, you simply cannot without any factual basis. That cannot be done until a schedule is released. Then you can attribute an % of FTA games that have non QLD teams.

The point was raised earlier (by an advocate of a 2nd QLD team which I agree with), that with FTA games, we should have two of the 4 FTA allocated to a QLD team. It was also produced by docbrown that any FTA game featuring a QLD team produce a spike in the ratings (regardless of who they play). In essence the game draws in QLD viewers, not the club they are playing. This basic premise should make it abundantly clear why I chose to use the stats in a particular way. I am surprised you overlooked this point, or maybe it was just ignorance.

 

[Cheesie-the-Pirate]

Almost 100%???? That would depend on the schedule of games. The point (bolded) you are trying to make, you simply cannot without any factual basis. That cannot be done until a schedule is released. Then you can attribute an % of FTA games that have non QLD teams.

Depending on your definition of "almost", he's absolutely correct. Even in a gerrymandered draw where every Queensland team plays the other Queensland teams twice and every single one of these games are shown on television, the percentage of televised games that are broadcast involving at least one non-Qld team would be very high.

Let's add one Queensland team and one non-Queensland team for argument's sake. Assume we persist with the current 3 free to air TV games a week and 26 rounds of football.

There's 12 games featuring all Queensland. There's 78 televised games in total (ignoring finals).

That's 85% of games including a non-Queensland team - and that's based on very conservative estimates. Make it four games a week and it's up to 88.5%.

 

[_Johnsy]

Cheesie, what is to say that each weekend has 2 games of FTA featuring a QLD side. Apparently this is a must every weekend considering what some supporters of the 2nd QLD team have proposed.

Broncs play NQ, on Friday night. The new Brisbane side play the Titans on sunday. Both on FTA. On the weekends that the QLD teams do not play each other they still receive 2 FTA games featuring a QLD side.

For the remainder of the FTA games (6 games above with 2 byes = 8 weeks)

16 FTA games left, under the proposal requested a minimum of 1 QLD teams would play in one of the FTA games on Friday and Sunday. There is nothing to say that 3 games would not feature a QLD team. Eg Broncs V Dragons direct into QLD, Titans V Tigers direct into Sydney delayed into QLD. Then NQ playing a sunday FTA game.

There are too many possibilities to say with any accuracy that almost 100% of FTA games would feature a non QLD team. There may be a high percentage, but not almost 100%.


My point is not about the teams that are playing (I should have explained this clearly earlier). It is about such a large chunk (minimum 50%) of FTA fixtures being handed to 25% market share QLD. If a QLD team is playing a non QLD team in a FTA game &the game is being beamed live into QLD it is solely for the QLD market, no-one else.

I understand that stats can make it look not so one sided, but based of 4 FTA games if 2 involve a QLD team that is 50%of FTA games for the QLD market only.

 

[Cheesie-the-Pirate]

I understand that stats can make it look not so one sided, but based of 4 FTA games if 2 involve a QLD team that is 50%of FTA games for the QLD market only.

What you're saying only makes sense under the premise that Broncos vs Dragons on a Sunday afternoon is a game that somehow only benefits the Broncos and other Queenslanders

There are three categories of games here.

1. Games involving only Queensland teams (with four teams the most this can ever be is 12 assuming that teams can only play each other a maximum of two times)
2. Games involving only non-Queensland teams
3. Games involving a mixture of Queensland and non-Queensland teams.

In a competition where there are 18 clubs (4 from Queensland) and each club plays 12 fixtures (2 byes) and assuming the worst-case 12 all Queensland game scenario as above the numbers in each category are:

1. 12
2. 60
3. 36

(Note that I have not actually worked out if this works from a scheduling perspective, but I don't think the changes required to make it work would be material.)

In this situation 44% of games (12+36/108*100) involve Queensland teams. 50% of televised games involving Queenslanders is a small bias, but hardly something to do too much complaining about.

 

[dgsfan]

I would refrain from arguing with johnsy. He's not all there.