2021 R23 Fri - Penrith 25-12 South Sydney @ Suncorp

[Jono078]

Really interesting work Jono. Is there a post somewhere that explains how the model works in more detail?

Thank you, and @The_Frog !

Not really, not yet anyway.

Without going in full detail this is basically what it's simulating;

- Players, each rated by me from 0-100. Not an easy task when trying to keep things even and fair since 2006! So there's some bias here but I do my best to reflect each player and team's performance each year.
- Real life team scoring data
- Home Ground Advantage - this has been thrown out the window for the most part this year
- Form - this is a random value, so the form bars you see in the images are not reflective of real life form, it's just the form of the player for that particular simulation

Pretty bare explanation but that's basically it.

 

[Jono078]

I made a quick video, just so those interested can see it in action;

 

[Fangs]

I made a quick video, just so those interested can see it in action;

Very cool mate looks great.

 

[ColdWetPanther]

I made a quick video, just so those interested can see it in action;

Well done Jono. Like how you can play teams from different years against each other. Very cool indeed!!

 

[BranVan3000]

For those that were curious, here's a full strength Panthers vs full strength Rabbitohs.. As you can see, across 100 simulations these teams are fairly even, the real ladder suggests just as much thus far this season.

View attachment 52525

I dont think Knight or Sua make the full strength Souths side

 

[Vic Mackey]

I think its only fair that the NRL put the season on hold until the PANTHERS have all of their players fit

 

[blaza88z]

I think its only fair that the NRL put the season on hold until the PANTHERS have all of their players fit

Can you believe the NRL would put on a 3 game series in the middle of the season in an attempt to de-rail PENRITH's season?

It's just unbelievable

 

[roofromoz]

JFH won't play, TPJ will debut

Time for Tevita as Fish waits: Cleary

Panthers coach Ivan Cleary discusses giving Tevita Pangai Junior a run, the plan for James Fisher-Harris and the threat posed by South Sydney.

www.penrithpanthers.com.au

 

[THE CHAMP]

Souths to win and start the panthers slide into mediocrity

 

[The_Frog]

Souths to win and start the panthers slide into mediocrity

It's just wrong that Panthers are 2nd and Broncos 15th.

We don't need to win this game and having left out our best forward I suspect we won't.

 

[GongPanther]

Media sucking up hard for Souths. Must have got a Twatter from Rusty.

 

[pantherz9103]

Souths to win and start the panthers slide into mediocrity

You may be right, you may be wrong but what I do know is that watching the Broncos slide into mediocrity or just being plain shit the past two years has been glorious and I'm enjoying it while it lasts, just like Penrith's winning habit.

Fun Fact for the forum: Nathan Cleary hasn't lost a game of Rugby League yet in 2021.

 

[roofromoz]

Media sucking up hard for Souths. Must have got a Twatter from Rusty.

They have been choking our engorged you know what a few times this year too

 

[THE CHAMP]

You may be right, you may be wrong but what I do know is that watching the Broncos slide into mediocrity or just being plain shit the past two years has been glorious and I'm enjoying it while it lasts, just like Penrith's winning habit.

Fun Fact for the forum: Nathan Cleary hasn't lost a game of Rugby League yet in 2021.

Oh we suck no doubt
You know it’s pretty good fun
Just in the short term anyway

 

[BunniesMan]

The game of the regular season. 2 of the 3 remaining teams who can win the comp. I predict the winner of this will play Melbourne in the big dance.

 

[ColdWetPanther]

The game of the regular season. 2 of the 3 remaining teams who can win the comp. I predict the winner of this will play Melbourne in the big dance.

I predict whichever of these two teams pick up the least injuries/suspensions between now and the 2/3 game in the first week of the finals will play Melbourne in the GF. The other playing them in the Prelim (sorry if that is a dirty word Bunnies fans!!)

 

[Valheru]

Oh we suck no doubt
You know it’s pretty good fun
Just in the short term anyway

If your team is lower then PENRITH on the table then you aren't allowed to predict them to lose, that is just sour grapes.

 

[The_Frog]

If your team is lower then PENRITH on the table then you aren't allowed to predict them to lose, that is just sour grapes.

The problem is clearly fans of formerly great clubs who aren't so great any longer, resenting the team that has taken their place.

Both yourself and Chump predicted much more than the outcome of one game.

 

[roofromoz]

The game of the regular season. 2 of the 3 remaining teams who can win the comp. I predict the winner of this will play Melbourne in the big dance.

What if the Storms get eliminated by say an 89th minute field goal in the preliminary final?

 

[roofromoz]

If your team is lower then PENRITH on the table then you aren't allowed to predict them to lose, that is just sour grapes.

Sorry, my kids have been watching a lot of Teen Titans Go during the lockdown.