Rd8: 8pm EELS v Broncos GAME DAY THREAD @ TIO Stadium - Darwin 21/4/23

[the phantom menace]

The problem with observation is that what we recall doesn’t reflect reality in an objective way. This is why the pros use statistics. Observation (including video replay) provides context to the big picture provided by statistics.

Yeah... nah. It's a footy forum with a live game day thread. By definition the thread is about observations first. Post-hoc statistics might provide subsequent context - not the other way around

The way you use statistics on this forum is hardly like a pro.... It's becoming very unravelled week to week - by observation

 

[the phantom menace]

So the aggregated data doesn’t reflect his overall level of play? lol got it.

No the aggregated data is irrelevant to the point being made.

As you know (but dishonestly ignore) the aggregated data can be skewed by one really good performance in a rout against a poor team, and so doesn't reflect the observation being made, that in the majority other games Paulo has been poor-low this season.

But cling onto your unobjective use of stats to support your contrary viewpoint - while burying any credibility you thought the constant (mis)use of stats had built.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Yeah... nah. It's a footy forum with a live game day thread. By definition the thread is about observations first. Post-hoc statistics might provide subsequent context - not the other way around

Exactly, which is why I provide you idiots the statistics, post hoc.

The way you use statistics on this forum is hardly like a pro.... It's becoming very unravelled week to week - by observation

If you want professional analysis you'll need to start paying me. I'm doing this out of charity.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

No the aggregated data is irrelevant to the point being made.

As you know (but dishonestly ignore) the aggregated data can be skewed by one really good performance in a rout against a poor team, and so doesn't reflect the observation being made, that in the majority other games Paulo has been poor-low this season.

But cling onto your unobjective use of stats to support your contrary viewpoint - while burying any credibility you thought the constant (mis)use of stats had built.

Well I agree six games is a small sample against which to judge Paulo compared to previous years, however I wasn't the one claiming he has been particularly bad this year. I agree he's had some quiet games, but that is the case every year. What I think aids the perception that "Paulo has been shit this year" is the fact that he has had two quiet games following his two week suspension. Prior to that though he destroyed Melbourne and Penrith, which is the distant past for people relying solely on observation.

In the industry we call this recency bias. I am of course talking about the fashion industry.

 

[the phantom menace]

Exactly, which is why I provide you idiots the statistics, post hoc.

Yeah... nah. The point is we don't need to be "provided" with your irrelevant shit and trolling in the game day thread.

There's a Stats Thread which you can make your own though...

If you want professional analysis you'll need to start paying me. I'm doing this out of charity.

If anyone wanted professional analysis of stats, they'd pay a professional - not a selective stat agenda-driven numpty.

 

[the phantom menace]

Well I agree six games is a small sample against which to judge Paulo compared to previous years, however I wasn't the one claiming he has been particularly bad this year. I agree he's had some quiet games, but that is the case every year. What I think aids the perception that "Paulo has been shit this year" is the fact that he has had two quiet games following his two week suspension. Prior to that though he destroyed Melbourne and Penrith, which is the distant past for people relying solely on observation.

In the industry we call this recency bias. I am of course talking about the fashion industry.

Quiet games are poor games for an impact prop forward. So you are pretty much agreeing with the observations you're trying so hard to disprove through poor use of selective stats.

Call it whatever you want - but by focusing on pre-suspension Paulo games you're opening yourself to accusations of primacy bias (and hopefully the realisation that you might not be the only one on this forum of "idiots" in an "industry").

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Yeah... nah. The point is we don't need to be "provided" with your irrelevant shit and trolling in the game day thread.

There's a Stats Thread which you can make your own though...

If anyone wanted professional analysis of stats, they'd pay a professional - not a selective stat agenda-driven numpty.

Take it to the whinging thread mate. If you're not going to support your team expect disagreement from those who do.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Quiet games are poor games for an impact prop forward. So you are pretty much agreeing with the observations you're trying so hard to disprove through poor use of selective stats.

I'm disproving that this year is any different, not that he doesn't have quiet games. Catch up ffs

Call it whatever you want - but by focusing on pre-suspension Paulo games you're opening yourself to accusations of primacy bias (and hopefully the realisation that you might not be the only one on this forum of "idiots" in an "industry").

Actually I went looking for that stat because I (initially) agreed Paulo was having his worst ever year. The stats proved me (and hineyrulz) wrong. Recency bias explained why my observations (and his and yours) are so often wrong. Primacy bias would've led me to disregard the stats, as you are trying so very hard to do.

 

[Eelementary]

I'm a little disappointed in Hodgson so far, but I dare say that a few weeks playing in NSW Cup to get some confidence back wouldn't be bad for him, or the team.

 

[hineyrulz]

Career best for tackle breaks and metres per game

More proof stats cannot be trusted, unless they are LBA's ffs!!!

 

[IFR33K]

I'm a little disappointed in Hodgson so far, but I dare say that a few weeks playing in NSW Cup to get some confidence back wouldn't be bad for him, or the team.

Only a little? He’s cooked mate. He’s old and doesn’t have the heart anymore. Plus he’s old. The game has left him behind. Did I mention he’s old?

 

[TheRam]

Is he and does he really?

Looks like it from where I'm sitting.

 

[Happy MEel]

I think you're making shit up, or more likely misrepresenting me. Just like you I saw Michael Jennings picked in reserve grade. And there is a gulf between a team's best players, like Jennings, and its squad players, like Waqa Blake and Nathan Brown. You seem to think because a player gets picked every week that he is on big money, or if he was signed from a rival mid-season that we must be paying overs. The fact is Blake's form has fallen so far and for so long that he has been surpassed in the squad by players like Russell and Simonsson, who was also released by his previous club. Does that mean we are paying $500k for Bailey Simonsson? If we're not paying it for him why would we be paying it for Blake?

Because you can’t renegotiate a contract mid-term because he’s playing shit.

 

[hindy111]

Only a little? He’s cooked mate. He’s old and doesn’t have the heart anymore. Plus he’s old. The game has left him behind. Did I mention he’s old?

That's the thing we are yet to determine. Is it fitness and injuries that are his issue or is it father time. First I felt he would need a month to get up to speed. But it now has been 2mths and he is getting worse.
Father times has caught up with him I feel.

 

[TheRam]

I’m saying that Hands’ defensive workrate is likely understated on the tackles (and misses) per minute played metric, because his one 80 minute game so far was one in which we had a bulk of possession.

You still haven’t even tried answering whether you think Hodgson is performing at an acceptable, first grade level. That’s a yes or no question. I’d be interested in knowing your opinion.

Why? He is a 'Stats Man' and stats men are only as good as their stats and his stats suck!

 

[IFR33K]

That's the thing we are yet to determine. Is it fitness and injuries that are his issue or is it father time. First I felt he would need a month to get up to speed. But it now has been 2mths and he is getting worse.
Father times has caught up with him I feel.

Was the 6 again rule around when he last played a decent amount? The game has gotten quicker over the past 2 or 3
Years and he’s been found out.

 

[JokerEel]

Looks like it from where I'm sitting.

So we don't know if he is a student of the game.

Plus of course the Broncos system should be strong but when players are coming out saying the coach has NFI not sure how strong it is..

 

[King-Gutho94]

So we don't know if he is a student of the game.

Plus of course the Broncos system should be strong but when players are coming out saying the coach has NFI not sure how strong it is..

There system is as strong as what Adam Reynolds body and fitness is.

 

[the phantom menace]

Take it to the whinging thread mate. If you're not going to support your team expect disagreement from those who do.

The Venn diagram of reading your shitty statty forum posts and supporting my team does not overlap...

 

[the phantom menace]

I'm disproving that this year is any different, not that he doesn't have quiet games. Catch up ffs

Sorry to tell you, but your selective posting of tangential stats in all manner of forum threads isn't proving or disproving anything champ.

Actually I went looking for that stat because I (initially) agreed Paulo was having his worst ever year. The stats proved me (and hineyrulz) wrong. Recency bias explained why my observations (and his and yours) are so often wrong. Primacy bias would've led me to disregard the stats, as you are trying so very hard to do.

Yeah... nah. What type of statistician worth their salt tries to explain away their own biases, instead of acknowledge them and learn from them - i.e. learning not to selectively post your irrelevant/tangential stats on here so much?!