18th club, whose next?

[Wb1234]

The main guys aside from Luai are locked down until 2027

Salary cap isn’t going to stop the panthers run of success

injury and complacency are their biggest enemies

this year showed they can play poorly in a grand final and still win

clubs like roosters south’s storm warriors and broncs are a few years away from being genuine threats

 

[MugaB]

If the next 3 are indeed Perth, Brisbane 3 and NZ 2 which gets us to 20 (which are the obvious 3 strongest)

The obvious 3? That complete garbage...
Perth are hamstrung by talent, Brisbane3 are too close to dolphins and bronx to come in yet as the phins are just getting ingrained, and NZ2 doesn't even have a bidder....
Out of all the media the only thing going in as the next three is the PNG or pasifika pushed bid from the govt, aswell as whatever bears bid (apparently ready to go at a moments notice)
If we are seriously looking at live bids right now
Its PNG/Cairns as 18th, then long wait till
Easts brisbane and Perth/Bears as 19th/20th in any order really, (depending on player stocks)
There's nothing to suggest there is a want or need for anything more from New Zealand other than a few opinions around the game, or chalmers talking up the past orcas bid from 2007
The only reason Easts brisbane are being considered is the lack of a new zealand bid

 

[docbrown]

One issue is once you get past 18 teams you start to run into tv slot problems. That will mean lower tv value for any content increase. Sure we could bring Back Thursday night but who wants that? After 20 you’re really in simu cast of games territory.

End of day it costs nrl each new club brought in, not just in grant but also running costs and the development and participation pathways needed to generate more players. I’ll be surprised if we go past 18 before 2032 tbh.

We already have Thursday games...

As for simulcasting here's 24 teams, 12 games a week, 8 in prime time and not a single clashing timeslot.
Game 1: Thursday night
Game 2: Friday 8pm NZ/6pm Aus
Game 3: Friday 8pm Aus
Game 4: Saturday 2pm
Game 5: Saturday 4pm
Game 6: Saturday 6pm
Game 7: Saturday 8pm
Game 8: Sunday 2pm
Game 9: Sunday 4pm
Game 10: Sunday 6pm
Game 11: Sunday 8pm
Game 12: Monday night

 

[Wb1234]

We already have Thursday games...

As for simulcasting here's 24 teams, 12 games a week, 8 in prime time and not a single clashing timeslot.
Game 1: Thursday night
Game 2: Friday 8pm NZ/6pm Aus
Game 3: Friday 8pm Aus
Game 4: Saturday 2pm
Game 5: Saturday 4pm
Game 6: Saturday 6pm
Game 7: Saturday 8pm
Game 8: Sunday 2pm
Game 9: Sunday 4pm
Game 10: Sunday 6pm
Game 11: Sunday 8pm
Game 12: Monday night

Think he meant Monday

 

[docbrown]

Think he meant Monday

Probably but he also doesn't know what he's talking about 99% of the time. Even with the current number of teams, the NRL could boost its ratings in a heap of ways to make it more desirable to broadcasters. Even more so with 20-24 teams. What he's arguing is pure waffle.

 

[Wb1234]

Probably but he also doesn't know what he's talking about 99% of the time. Even with the current number of teams, the NRL could boost its ratings in a heap of ways to make it more desirable to broadcasters. Even more so with 20-24 teams. What he's arguing is pure waffle.

those time slots you highlighted were good

we can have a 24 team comp with no overlapping games which I think is the end goal

it’s just hard to think of team 24 lol

png Perth nz2 Adelaide and Brisbane 3

who are the other two ? Nz3 and central coast ?

 

[Bukowski]

The obvious 3? That complete garbage...
Perth are hamstrung by talent, Brisbane3 are too close to dolphins and bronx to come in yet as the phins are just getting ingrained, and NZ2 doesn't even have a bidder....
Out of all the media the only thing going in as the next three is the PNG or pasifika pushed bid from the govt, aswell as whatever bears bid (apparently ready to go at a moments notice)
If we are seriously looking at live bids right now
Its PNG/Cairns as 18th, then long wait till
Easts brisbane and Perth/Bears as 19th/20th in any order really, (depending on player stocks)
There's nothing to suggest there is a want or need for anything more from New Zealand other than a few opinions around the game, or chalmers talking up the past orcas bid from 2007
The only reason Easts brisbane are being considered is the lack of a new zealand bid

PNG are hamstrung by talent aswell, and Vlandys indicated it had to be sole PNG bid, not a / Cairns.
As for the bears? They dont even have an area!
Both of these are long odds.

 

[ash the bash]

those time slots you highlighted were good

we can have a 24 team comp with no overlapping games which I think is the end goal

it’s just hard to think of team 24 lol

png Perth nz2 Adelaide and Brisbane 3

who are the other two ? Nz3 and central coast ?

1​	Canberra Raiders	ACT
2​	Sydney Roosters	NSW
3​	South Sydney Rabbitohs	NSW
4​	Canterbury Bulldogs	NSW
5​	Penrith Panthers	NSW
6​	Manly Sea Eagles	NSW
7​	Newcastle Knights	NSW
8​	Parramatta Eels	NSW
9​	Cronulla Sharks	NSW
10​	St G Ill Dragons	NSW
11​	Wests Tigers	NSW
12​	NZ Warriors	NZ
13​	NZ 2	NZ
14​	PNG Hunters	PNG
15​	Brisbane Broncos	QLD
16​	NQ Cowboys	QLD
17​	Gold Coast Titans	QLD
18​	Dolphins	QLD
19​	Brisbane Jets	QLD
20​	SC Falcons	QLD
21​	Adelaide Rams	SA
22​	Melbourne 2	VIC
23​	Melbourne Storm	VIC
24​	WC Pirates	WA

 

[The Great Dane]

Talent is the problem with going past 18-20 teams, not timeslots. Unless the NRL seriously invest in more efficient ways of producing talent from the grassroots and take raiding RU internationally seriously, which would be very expensive, at least the bottom 4-6 teams would be very, very ordinary if the NRL expanded to 24 teams within the next rough decade. The talent pool will catch up if it's given time, but it's not ready to support 210 more NRL quality players just yet.

Issues with timeslots and the structure of the competition will be unavoidable if/when the NRL looks to expand beyond 24 teams though. At that point the competition will become ungainly and NRL will be forced to have serious discussions about rationalisation and/or restructuring the format of the competition into conferences, P&R, etc, but those would be good problems to have and the NRL are still a fair way off getting to that point.

 

[The Great Dane]

those time slots you highlighted were good

we can have a 24 team comp with no overlapping games which I think is the end goal

it’s just hard to think of team 24 lol

png Perth nz2 Adelaide and Brisbane 3

who are the other two ? Nz3 and central coast ?

Melbourne 2 and NZ 3 are inevitable assuming continued growth and given time, whether or not they'll be ready to support teams before the NRL expands to 24 teams is a separate question though. Perth 2 is probably inevitable given time as well, but it definitely won't be ready for a second team within the foreseeable future.

By rights PNG shouldn't be in the discussion at all until it's dealt with some of it's social issues, but they are, so I guess it is what it is.

 

[The Great Dane]

PNG are hamstrung by talent aswell, and Vlandys indicated it had to be sole PNG bid, not a / Cairns.
As for the bears? They dont even have an area!
Both of these are long odds.

By rights they should be long odds, but that isn't the case in reality given the attitude of the current administration.

I'd say that it's a coinflip between PVL choosing genuine expansion or doing something like handing the next three licenses to PNG, Brisbane, and the Bears.

 

[Wb1234]

Talent is the problem with going past 18-20 teams, not timeslots. Unless the NRL seriously invest in more efficient ways of producing talent from the grassroots and take raiding RU internationally seriously, which would be very expensive, at least the bottom 4-6 teams would be very, very ordinary if the NRL expanded to 24 teams within the next rough decade. The talent pool will catch up if it's given time, but it's not ready to support 210 more NRL quality players just yet.

Issues with timeslots and the structure of the competition will be unavoidable if/when the NRL looks to expand beyond 24 teams though. At that point the competition will become ungainly and NRL will be forced to have serious discussions about rationalisation and/or restructuring the format of the competition into conferences, P&R, etc, but those would be good problems to have and the NRL are still a fair way off getting to that point.

Rising salary cap will make it easier to raid union

with the next tv deal the salary cap will be over 15 million and perhaps closer to 20 million. Wages will top 3 million pa.

nz png and the pacific islands willl provide the bulk of new players required. If a png nrl team is a reasonable success they on their own will be the big mover

super league isn’t raided enough either you could get up to 20 more players from there

I really hope we don’t go with two sides in Melbourne unless the storm are averaging crowds may bigger than currently

 

[The Great Dane]

Rising salary cap will make it easier to raid union

with the next tv deal the salary cap will be over 15 million and perhaps closer to 20 million. Wages will top 3 million pa.

NRL clubs would have to pay significant overs to attract decent RU players from overseas irrespective of the size of the cap, and attracting established pros, let alone rep players, would cost a small fortune. The only exceptions to that rule would be the odd overlooked diamonds in the rough, most of which would probably try to use the NRL as a steppingstone to progress their careers in RU Radradra style.

nz png and the pacific islands willl provide the bulk of new players required. If a png nrl team is a reasonable success they on their own will be the big mover

Setting NZ aside for the moment; people vastly overestimate the potential for producing talent in the PI's, and focusing on talent production in the PI's will have negative long term impacts on the sport in Australia if changes aren't made here first.

There's way more potential for unearthing new talent in just NSW, Qld, and the ACT alone than there is in all of the PI's put together, but the grassroots are an absolute shambles for the most part and the NRL's junior development is archaic. The ARLC/NRL should be focusing on addressing those issues and maximising talent production here at home before they even start to seriously consider significant investment in junior development overseas.

It also isn't in the interests of those nations or RL internationally for even more of the RL world to be totally reliant on Australia and the NRL for their existence. In an ideal world places like NZ and PNG would be working on developing their own systems and comps, not leaning on the Australian ones.

super league isn’t raided enough either you could get up to 20 more players from there

English RL is struggling enough as it is, it doesn't need to be worrying about the NRL picking off absolutely all of it's best talent.

I really hope we don’t go with two sides in Melbourne unless the storm are averaging crowds may bigger than currently

It'd really depend on how they they went about it, but it'll be at least a decade, likely longer, before the NRL seriously starts to consider a second side in Melbourne anyway.

 

[Wb1234]

NRL clubs would have to pay significant overs to attract decent RU players from overseas irrespective of the size of the cap, and attracting established pros, let alone rep players, would cost a small fortune. The only exceptions to that rule would be the odd overlooked diamonds in the rough, most of which would probably try to use the NRL as a steppingstone to progress their careers in RU Radradra style.

Setting NZ aside for the moment; people vastly overestimate the potential for producing talent in the PI's, and focusing on talent production in the PI's will have negative long term impacts on the sport in Australia if changes aren't made here first.

There's way more potential for unearthing new talent in just NSW, Qld, and the ACT alone than there is in all of the PI's put together, but the grassroots are an absolute shambles for the most part and the NRL's junior development is archaic. The ARLC/NRL should be focusing on addressing those issues and maximising talent production here at home before they even start to seriously consider significant investment in junior development overseas.

It also isn't in the interests of those nations or RL internationally for even more of the RL world to be totally reliant on Australia and the NRL for their existence. In an ideal world places like NZ and PNG would be working on developing their own systems and comps, not leaning on the Australian ones.

English RL is struggling enough as it is, it doesn't need to be worrying about the NRL picking off absolutely all of it's best talent.

It'd really depend on how they they went about it, but it'll be at least a decade, likely longer, before the NRL seriously starts to consider a second side in Melbourne anyway.

20 percent of all union players are Pacific Islander

we also have png they don’t

You’re right about junior pathways in nsw and qld. Salary cap exemptions need to be made to reward developing clubs (way more generous than the token we have now)

super league didn’t care when the currency favoured them and they took our players. It’s an under-utilised source of juniors

they can go back to super league at the back end of their careers. It will also help the england team
Imo we should have between 20 and 40 English players in the nrl

 

[Canard]

PNG isn't and hasn't produced any talent for the NRL thus far.

How does a NRL team suddenly fix that?

 

[mongoose]

If the next 3 are indeed Perth, Brisbane 3 and NZ 2 which gets us to 20 (which are the obvious 3 strongest), it really raises a dilemma for the NRL when considering anything beyond that.

How soon after 20 teams could (or SHOULD) the NRL expand again?

I think it will be a while before the NRL goes to 20 teams tbh. The global economy is looking pretty Shakey right now, they are talking about another depression, not just a recession.

 

[AlwaysGreen]

History of expansion of the competition since 1998 shows it will be a softly softly approach.
Team 18 will happen and soon. Teams 19 and 20? I'd say 10 years plus after that, so maybe 2040.

 

[MugaB]

PNG are hamstrung by talent aswell, and Vlandys indicated it had to be sole PNG bid, not a / Cairns.
As for the bears? They dont even have an area!
Both of these are long odds.

They are not hamstrung by talent, they are hamstrung by not having the proper pathways and NRL scouts looking at their local competitions (digicel cup) they basically have to move to a QCup or NSWCup team and base themselves in Aus, if they are seriously wanting to pursue a career in RL like all other players do, but those other players don't have to leave their country (nz is similar), there isn't a proper pathway to the NRL for those hunters or local digicel cup players, until dolphins took 3 of their prospects this season, as for PNG players in Nrl, its only Olam (joined the SC falcons) and Coates(gold coast/Broncos), with most of the other PNG players scattered in ESL in england, it all depends on whos looking for these players, and now PVL is looking or atleast hinting that theres a possible 9-18 million population there who respect the game and value it above all else, to the point that its the no.1 sport in their country.

They have the talent to go toe to toe with the average QCUP sides, and if they got elite training and a solid base/acedemy they could be as good as the average NRL team, which is more that can be said for a Western or South Australian team, and thats not to say they couldn't do it either, its just there is more upside to a country thats already invested, versus another metro that is going to end up nichè, and a drain on a player pool, thats already stretched from clubs like chooks, eels and dogs

 

[docbrown]

1​	Canberra Raiders	ACT
2​	Sydney Roosters	NSW
3​	South Sydney Rabbitohs	NSW
4​	Canterbury Bulldogs	NSW
5​	Penrith Panthers	NSW
6​	Manly Sea Eagles	NSW
7​	Newcastle Knights	NSW
8​	Parramatta Eels	NSW
9​	Cronulla Sharks	NSW
10​	St G Ill Dragons	NSW
11​	Wests Tigers	NSW
12​	NZ Warriors	NZ
13​	NZ 2	NZ
14​	PNG Hunters	PNG
15​	Brisbane Broncos	QLD
16​	NQ Cowboys	QLD
17​	Gold Coast Titans	QLD
18​	Dolphins	QLD
19​	Brisbane Jets	QLD
20​	SC Falcons	QLD
21​	Adelaide Rams	SA
22​	Melbourne 2	VIC
23​	Melbourne Storm	VIC
24​	WC Pirates	WA

This is pretty much the kind of template that the NRL should work towards as it saturates every major media market. For instance, with Queensland having 6 teams, that equates to 30 all-Queensland team derby/rivalry games each year - one a week. That game would be the major sporting news in Queensland every week. Particularly if (and they should) the NRL introduce divisions and conferences, which makes those rivalry games matter even more.

With 2 Melbourne teams, you have a game played there effectively every week, boosting the sport's local profile, along with 2 derby games a year. With at least 2 New Zealand teams, you can fill most of the 6pm Friday slot with games hosted in New Zealand and give New Zealand TV a local 8pm prime time game every week. Again - 2 derby games each year.

By 2050 the only other major population centres without a team that are already rugby league inclined would be the Central Coast (450k), a third New Zealand team (Wellington or Christchurch - 500-600k depending on where the 2nd team is), Cairns (350k) and Central Qld (150k-200k depending on the town). You then might consider a second Auckland side potentially, as it will have a population of 2.5 million. Further afield Suva in Fiji might one day become a very long term possibility.

That said, if you can also convince a Sydney NRL team to relocate for their own benefit - looking at you Cronulla... - you can then put a team in one of these areas without going over 24 teams. My preference would be to have 3 New Zealand teams so Auckland, Wellington & Christchurch are all covered, given you 36 games in New Zealand each year and 6 derby/rivalry games.

After this the only other major population centres without a team based locally would be Geelong (400k), Hobart (350k) and Darwin (250k) - all very small populations in AFL areas.

 

[MugaB]

This is pretty much the kind of template that the NRL should work towards as it saturates every major media market. For instance, with Queensland having 6 teams, that equates to 30 all-Queensland team derby/rivalry games each year - one a week. That game would be the major sporting news in Queensland every week. Particularly if (and they should) the NRL introduce divisions and conferences, which makes those rivalry games matter even more.

With 2 Melbourne teams, you have a game played there effectively every week, boosting the sport's local profile, along with 2 derby games a year. With at least 2 New Zealand teams, you can fill most of the 6pm Friday slot with games hosted in New Zealand and give New Zealand TV a local 8pm prime time game every week. Again - 2 derby games each year.

By 2050 the only other major population centres without a team that are already rugby league inclined would be the Central Coast (450k), a third New Zealand team (Wellington or Christchurch - 500-600k depending on where the 2nd team is), Cairns (350k) and Central Qld (150k-200k depending on the town). You then might consider a second Auckland side potentially, as it will have a population of 2.5 million. Further afield Suva in Fiji might one day become a very long term possibility.

That said, if you can also convince a Sydney NRL team to relocate for their own benefit - looking at you Cronulla... - you can then put a team in one of these areas without going over 24 teams. My preference would be to have 3 New Zealand teams so Auckland, Wellington & Christchurch are all covered, given you 36 games in New Zealand each year and 6 derby/rivalry games.

After this the only other major population centres without a team based locally would be Geelong (400k), Hobart (350k) and Darwin (250k) - all very small populations in AFL areas.

Chances are those 6 teams in QLD will most likely be 7 if your adding another Brisbane, SCFalcons and PNG/Pasifika (Cairns) which equates to more derbies,
No sydney sides will ever move, and Adelaide and Melbourne 2 are probably the last two of that rank you've listed.. Instead Christchurch and Fji would probably be ready instead of those two
Nz2 should be in Hamilton
And the list of Expansion for me should be in order
17.Redcliffe Dolphins
18.Hunters (Pasifika PNG)
19.Bears (Hamilton NZ)
20.Pirates (Perth WA)
21.Sabres (Brisbane QLD)
22.Falcons (Sunshine Coast QLD)
23.Bulls (Christchurch NZ)
24.Silktails (Suva FIJI)