18th club, whose next?

[docbrown]

Talent is the problem with going past 18-20 teams, not timeslots. Unless the NRL seriously invest in more efficient ways of producing talent from the grassroots and take raiding RU internationally seriously, which would be very expensive, at least the bottom 4-6 teams would be very, very ordinary if the NRL expanded to 24 teams within the next rough decade. The talent pool will catch up if it's given time, but it's not ready to support 210 more NRL quality players just yet.

Issues with timeslots and the structure of the competition will be unavoidable if/when the NRL looks to expand beyond 24 teams though. At that point the competition will become ungainly and NRL will be forced to have serious discussions about rationalisation and/or restructuring the format of the competition into conferences, P&R, etc, but those would be good problems to have and the NRL are still a fair way off getting to that point.

There's no way it will be 24 teams with the next decade. We can go to 20 teams in a decade. 24 teams will take at least 20 years. Here's what the timeline should look like

Early 2024 - Call for tenders and announce targeted city locations - Perth, Brisbane, Wellington, Christchurch & Port Moresby - let that drive media speculation for months.

Late 2024 - Announce that 2 bids (if - and there should be - 2 quality bids) have won and will be introduced in stages (Team 18 in 2027 & Team 19 in 2029. Announce that the bid for the 20th team will take place in 2026.

2026 - Announced that the NRL will be expanding to 20 teams by 2032.

2027 - Team 18 added to the NRL - 9/Foxtel have to pay for those extra 12 game rights

2027 - Negotiate for the next rights - broadcasters are forced to bid on a 19-turning-20 team comp with 9/10 games a week.

2027 - Call for bid tenders for team 20. Announce team 20

2029 - Team 19 added to the NRL.

2032 - Team 20 added to the NRL prior to the negotiation of the next TV rights negotiations - also coincides with the 2032 Olympics.

2033 - Announce that the NRL will expand to a 22 team competition during the middle of the next broadcast deal cycle. Call for open tenders for Teams 21 & 22.

2037 - Team 21 added to the NRL.

2038 - Team 22 added to the NRL

2039 - Call for Team 23 & 24 open tenders

2043 - Teams 23 & 24 added to the NRL

It gives each new club 3-5 years to prepare and boosts each media rights negotiation.

 

[docbrown]

Melbourne 2 and NZ 3 are inevitable assuming continued growth and given time, whether or not they'll be ready to support teams before the NRL expands to 24 teams is a separate question though. Perth 2 is probably inevitable given time as well, but it definitely won't be ready for a second team within the foreseeable future.

By rights PNG shouldn't be in the discussion at all until it's dealt with some of it's social issues, but they are, so I guess it is what it is.

Indeed. By the time the NRL is looking at adding a second Melbourne side in the late 2030s Melbourne will have a population of 7 million and the Storm should be selling out MRS.

 

[docbrown]

Rising salary cap will make it easier to raid union

with the next tv deal the salary cap will be over 15 million and perhaps closer to 20 million. Wages will top 3 million pa.

nz png and the pacific islands willl provide the bulk of new players required. If a png nrl team is a reasonable success they on their own will be the big mover

super league isn’t raided enough either you could get up to 20 more players from there

I really hope we don’t go with two sides in Melbourne unless the storm are averaging crowds may bigger than currently

It's call sink-source dynamics. The strong an economy is - in this case the economy of the NRL's collective salary cap and bargaining power over potential players - the more exponential growth there is for attracting new migrants (in this case - new players from rugby union and other sports).

 

[The Great Dane]

20 percent of all union players are Pacific Islander

we also have png they don’t

Meaning 80% aren't... Get what I'm saying?

We also don't know if they're measuring people of PI ethnicity or nationality. In other words they're almost certainly including a lot of Australians, Kiwis, and people from the rest of the world in that statistic, not just people born in the islands themselves.

You’re right about junior pathways in nsw and qld. Salary cap exemptions need to be made to reward developing clubs (way more generous than the token we have now)

That'll do little to nothing to address the problems with junior development.

The major problem with junior develop is that it's on the 17 clubs to develop effectively all the NRL's talent. That makes it borderline impossible for players that live outside the 17 clubs catchments to get a run, and there's only so much space in the 17 club's systems for that talent anyway. That means that a huge portion of the athletic talent in just NSW, QLD, and the ACT alone is totally overlooked and a good portion of the rest is pushed out of the system simply because of a lack of spots.

That's before we even start talking about the rest of the country...

super league didn’t care when the currency favoured them and they took our players. It’s an under-utilised source of juniors

they can go back to super league at the back end of their careers. It will also help the england team
Imo we should have between 20 and 40 English players in the nrl

Australian RL wasn't at risk of completely dying out, and the fact that others act immorally doesn't gives you a license to do the same. Not that I'm saying that the RFL acted immorally BTW.

English RL's biggest problem is that they're too focused on internationals and the fools hope that success at the international level will somehow lead to long term growth of the sport domestically. They've got it arse backwards, but good luck convincing them otherwise.

 

[Canard]

They are not hamstrung by talent, they are hamstrung by not having the proper pathways and NRL scouts looking at their local competitions (digicel cup) they basically have to move to a QCup or NSWCup team and base themselves in Aus, if they are seriously wanting to pursue a career in RL like all other players do, but those other players don't have to leave their country (nz is similar), there isn't a proper pathway to the NRL for those hunters or local digicel cup players, until dolphins took 3 of their prospects this season, as for PNG players in Nrl, its only Olam (joined the SC falcons) and Coates(gold coast/Broncos), with most of the other PNG players scattered in ESL in england, it all depends on whos looking for these players, and now PVL is looking or atleast hinting that theres a possible 9-18 million population there who respect the game and value it above all else, to the point that its the no.1 sport in their country.

They have the talent to go toe to toe with the average QCUP sides, and if they got elite training and a solid base/acedemy they could be as good as the average NRL team, which is more that can be said for a Western or South Australian team, and thats not to say they couldn't do it either, its just there is more upside to a country thats already invested, versus another metro that is going to end up nichè, and a drain on a player pool, thats already stretched from clubs like chooks, eels and dogs

Coates is PNG by heritage only, he spent his entire life in Australia. He is 100% an Australian RL product.

There has nothing stopping NRL teams recruiting PNG talent for the last couple of decades, and certainly nothing now. Adding an NRL team doesn't suddenly change that.

Currently (thats not to say its not fixable), PNG has a talent problem at the moment. The ARLC should look to invest more in there junior development and pathways.

But given its a third world country, funding for things like clean water, schooling, electricity and food is probably a bit more of a priority.

 

[The Great Dane]

There's no way it will be 24 teams with the next decade. We can go to 20 teams in a decade. 24 teams will take at least 20 years. Here's what the timeline should look like

Early 2024 - Call for tenders and announce targeted city locations - Perth, Brisbane, Wellington, Christchurch & Port Moresby - let that drive media speculation for months.

Late 2024 - Announce that 2 bids (if - and there should be - 2 quality bids) have won and will be introduced in stages (Team 18 in 2027 & Team 19 in 2029. Announce that the bid for the 20th team will take place in 2026.

2026 - Announced that the NRL will be expanding to 20 teams by 2032.

2027 - Team 18 added to the NRL - 9/Foxtel have to pay for those extra 12 game rights

2027 - Negotiate for the next rights - broadcasters are forced to bid on a 19-turning-20 team comp with 9/10 games a week.

2027 - Call for bid tenders for team 20. Announce team 20

2029 - Team 19 added to the NRL.

2032 - Team 20 added to the NRL prior to the negotiation of the next TV rights negotiations - also coincides with the 2032 Olympics.

2033 - Announce that the NRL will expand to a 22 team competition during the middle of the next broadcast deal cycle. Call for open tenders for Teams 21 & 22.

2037 - Team 21 added to the NRL.

2038 - Team 22 added to the NRL

2039 - Call for Team 23 & 24 open tenders

2043 - Teams 23 & 24 added to the NRL

It gives each new club 3-5 years to prepare and boosts each media rights negotiation.

I know, that was literally my point.

There's no way you can plan that far ahead and expect everything to line up neatly either. Unforeseen circumstances would impact your timeline almost straight away.

 

[The Great Dane]

Indeed. By the time the NRL is looking at adding a second Melbourne side in the late 2030s Melbourne will have a population of 7 million and the Storm should be selling out MRS.

Those aren't safe assumptions to make. It's just as possible that RL could suffer a collapse similar RU's within the next 20 years...

 

[AlwaysGreen]

Those aren't safe assumptions to make. It's just as possible that RL could suffer a collapse similar RU's within the next 20 years...

You wish

 

[The Great Dane]

It's call sink-source dynamics. The strong an economy is - in this case the economy of the NRL's collective salary cap and bargaining power over potential players - the more exponential growth there is for attracting new migrants (in this case - new players from rugby union and other sports).

The NRL simply isn't a national economy...

No matter how big the NRL's salary cap gets it'll always be difficult and expensive to convince the global RU talent worth having to jump codes.

 

[The Great Dane]

You wish

RU people said the exact same thing to me in the early 00s when I said they were setting themselves up for failure...

 

[Wb1234]

Meaning 80% aren't... Get what I'm saying?

We also don't know if they're measuring people of PI ethnicity or nationality. In other words they're almost certainly including a lot of Australians, Kiwis, and people from the rest of the world in that statistic, not just people born in the islands themselves.

That'll do little to nothing to address the problems with junior development.

The major problem with junior develop is that it's on the 17 clubs to develop effectively all the NRL's talent. That makes it borderline impossible for players that live outside the 17 clubs catchments to get a run, and there's only so much space in the 17 club's systems for that talent anyway. That means that a huge portion of the athletic talent in just NSW, QLD, and the ACT alone is totally overlooked and a good portion of the rest is pushed out of the system simply because of a lack of spots.

That's before we even start talking about the rest of the country...

Australian RL wasn't at risk of completely dying out, and the fact that others act immorally doesn't gives you a license to do the same. Not that I'm saying that the RFL acted immorally BTW.

English RL's biggest problem is that they're too focused on internationals and the fools hope that success at the international level will somehow lead to long term growth of the sport domestically. They've got it arse backwards, but good luck convincing them otherwise.

20 percent of the global union playing base is a lot. It is based on ethnicity so what ? Same for us

nrl clubs like the dogs and Penrith are spending money on areas that aren’t in their normal catchment (Bathurst nsw north coast Christchurch)

there’s little reward for clubs now who spend millions on juniors. Clubs like easts can sit back and just poach

a one million salary cap exemption would change the incentives. You would get probably an additional 30 million pa spent on juniors coming from leagues clubs (better than the nrl spending its own money)

with the money in nrl vs super league it’s crazy not to say it’s a legitimate source of more players

Newcastle have two more poms coming this year

cenberra are rumoured too have signed a young half

it’s far better they stay in league then go to union

 

[Wb1234]

The NRL simply isn't a national economy...

No matter how big the NRL's salary cap gets it'll always be difficult and expensive to convince the global RU talent worth having to jump codes.

Mathew ridge etc before union went pro to stop it

with the money in lesgue we will just suck up all the best rugby talent

we are the worlds premier rugby comp so it’s only to be expected the best players will want to play here

 

[The Great Dane]

20 percent of the global union playing base is a lot. It is based on ethnicity so what ? Same for us

I thought that was obvious.

The NRL doesn't need to expand to the PI's to access that talent if, in reality, most of that RU "PI" talent is coming from AUS and NZ and not the Islands themselves. Frankly, RU is lying if they're claiming that 20% of their pro players internationally genuinely come from the islands themselves.

nrl clubs like the dogs and Penrith are spending money on areas that aren’t in their normal catchment (Bathurst nsw north coast Christchurch)

there’s little reward for clubs now who spend millions on juniors. Clubs like easts can sit back and just poach

a one million salary cap exemption would change the incentives. You would get probably an additional 30 million pa spent on juniors coming from leagues clubs (better than the nrl spending its own money)

None of that addresses the issues I brought up.

The fact that Penrith and Canterbury (they're not the only ones BTW) source players from further afield doesn't change the fact that they only have some much space in the elite pathways for example.

with the money in nrl vs super league it’s crazy not to say it’s a legitimate source of more players

Newcastle have two more poms coming this year

cenberra are rumoured too have signed a young half

it’s far better they stay in league then go to union

I never said that it wasn't a legitimate source of talent, only that we need to take the impacts that heavily recruiting from England would have on the sport over there into consideration.

 

[mongoose]

Coates is PNG by heritage only, he spent his entire life in Australia. He is 100% an Australian RL product.

There has nothing stopping NRL teams recruiting PNG talent for the last couple of decades, and certainly nothing now. Adding an NRL team doesn't suddenly change that.

Currently (thats not to say its not fixable), PNG has a talent problem at the moment. The ARLC should look to invest more in there junior development and pathways.

But given its a third world country, funding for things like clean water, schooling, electricity and food is probably a bit more of a priority.

yeah exactly, why have virtually no players from the Hunters advanced to the NRL? (Other than Olam)

 

[The Great Dane]

Mathew ridge etc before union went pro to stop it

with the money in lesgue we will just suck up all the best rugby talent

we are the worlds premier rugby comp so it’s only to be expected the best players will want to play here

For obvious reasons poaching RU's talent was easier before they went pro. The landscape is significantly different these days, and you need to lay the crack pipe down if you genuinely believe that it will be simple for the NRL to suck up all the best RU talent internationally.

The NRL might be able to do some stuff in NZ and Islands, maybe even jag the odd All Black if they went about it the right way, but it'd an expensive uphill battle for them to convince a significant amount of RU players from outside of region to move to Australia to play RL.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

They will have announced the two new teams for the next tv deal

so even if Perth isn’t starting right away the 19th team will be factored into the tv rights deal

20 teams still leave a 3rd Brisbane side and Adelaide to come in once the new expansion teams are embedded in

the biggest advantage to 1995 is the funding model of the grant being five million over the cap ….every new club is off to a flyer

plus the arlc playing travel and associated costs

I think the arlc will look past just being number one in australia (pretty much already in the bag) to being number one in the South Pacific

once that is achieved they will look to expand the game globally genuinely including potentially takeing over super league and turning it into nrl mark 2

With respect to the IRL and RFL, the NRL needs to be the world governing body and coordinate the SL, NRL and international game so we are cooperating worldwide

 

[Wb1234]

For obvious reasons poaching RU's talent was easier before they went pro. The landscape is significantly different these days, and you need to lay the crack pipe down if you genuinely believe that it will be simple for the NRL to suck up all the best RU talent internationally.

The NRL might be able to do some stuff in NZ and Islands, maybe even jag the odd All Black if they went about it the right way, but it'd an expensive uphill battle for them to convince a significant amount of RU players from outside of region to move to Australia to play RL.

The nrl would have the money to buy whoever it wants

you are right they might not be worth 3 million pa but the salary cap will allow the nrl to outbid anyone else if they want them badly enough

With respect to the IRL and RFL, the NRL needs to be the world governing body and coordinate the SL, NRL and international game so we are cooperating worldwide

poms wouldn’t allow it

England is in the too hard basket now

the nrl needs to focus on the pacific first

twenty years down the track then the nrl can take steps to help England if the img proposals don’t work

their current tv deal is around 50 million Aussie pa the money in their game barely pays for full time wages for players

the pacific cup is an excellent step by the arlc outside the irl or England

something it can control and make money from

 

[Canard]

Recruitment from RU is like no 99 on list of 100 top priorities for the game.

We need to invest in our own grass roots and grow the game that way.

Despite what people believe, current junior development is pitiful.

 

[Dragonwest]

Going off history comparing what's been spoken about in the papers verse what has actually happened over the last 20 years I'd expect only 1 team to be included by 2026/27 for the 1 extra game.

Absolute best case, 19 or 20 wont be added until the proceeding deal is done somewhere around 2032.

I would not be surprised if we are still sitting at 18 teams come 2035.

 

[Wb1234]

Going off history comparing what's been spoken about in the papers verse what has actually happened over the last 20 years I'd expect only 1 team to be included by 2026/27 for the 1 extra game.

Absolute best case, 19 or 20 wont be added until the proceeding deal is done somewhere around 2032.

I would not be surprised if we are still sitting at 18 teams come 2035.

Different leaders

vlandys has done more in his time than everyone else since 1995

there isn’t a single thing he said he would do that he hasn’t delivered on