1. St George Illawarra Dragons
2. Wests Tigers
3. Brisbane Broncos
4. South Sydney Rabbitohs
5. Sydney Roosters
6. Canberra Raiders
7. Melbourne Storm
8. New Zealand Warriors
9. Penrith Panthers
10. Gold Coast Titans
11. Canterbury Bulldogs
12. Parramatta Eels
13. Manly Sea Eagles
14. Newcastle Knights
15. Cronulla Sharks
16. North Queensland Cowboys
I'll start with why I think some teams are going to struggle a little more in 2011 and progress through to who I think will be genuine contenders.
I kind of expect North Queensland to prove me wrong, but I just can't help but foresee Thurston spending some time injured ... as well as the usual toll the rep season takes on them. I think they are a team on the rise, however, so there's bright times ahead.
Manly and Newcastle will be relying on first year halfbacks. As such, I view 2011 as a rebuilding season for them. I'm loathe to write off Manly, though, no matter how much I hate them, they are always competitive.
Meanwhile, Canterbury, Parramatta and Cronulla either have ongoing problems in the halves or a new rookie-ish combination in key positions. I know a lot of people are putting wraps on the Bulldogs, so I guess I'm going against the trend there. I obvioulsy want the Eels to do better and I'm willing to be pleasantly surprised ... I just can get my hopes up.
I'm predicting that age might start to catch up with the Gold Coast this season. They are a good, well-coached team, though, so they are always a danger side.
Penrith and New Zealand both had good seasons in 2010 and their fans will expect a lot in 2011. As an Eels fan, I know what that's like ... but I'm also used to being disappointed in those situations. I think they'll be close, but one of them might just fall a little short.
Melbourne is a bit of an unknown this year. They still have some very high quality players, but the rep season is going to really knock them around. Champion was a great pick up for them and I'm predicting that they will scrape into the finals despite the likely losses around Origin time. On the other hand, they could just be also-rans after losing so many players to the salary cap scandal. Their depth ain't what it used to be.
Canberra's season will hinge on how well they cope without Campese early on. Like many, I think they'll have to play a bit of catch-up in the second half of the season, but there's no doubting that they are going to be a danger team in 2011.
Like Canberra, the Roosters probably expect to finish higher than fifth, but I'm expecting them to lose their first choice halves throughout Origin and that's going to hurt them. I also think they will probably be plagued by a little bit of inconsistency again during the preliminary rounds. If they hit their straps towards the end of the season again, however, they will push for the title.
The Rabbitohs could be anything. They could miss the finals altogether. Anything below sixth place at the end of the normal rounds, though, would be a bit disappointing in my eyes, although I'm wary of high expectations. They have a strong roster, although some issues in terms of depth (especially in the halves). I honestly think Sandow is improving and Sutton is due for his every-second-year good season. They are also shielded from Origin somewhat with key players being non-Australians. If they improve their defence and make the most of their opportunities, I think they will do very well in 2011.
I just can't help but think Brisbane will be a force again this season. They'll continue to do well at home and will win plenty on the road. A lot of their Baby Broncos now have a bit of experience to draw on and they have plenty of strike players across the team. I just have a feeling about them (unfortunately ... they are one of my least favourite teams).
Wests Tigers are poised for a great season, in my opinion. They've got everything going for them. If Marshall and Farah stay fit, I expect they will go very far in 2011.
Dragons are the Dragons. Simple, efficient, effective, consistent. If they aren't in the top four at the end fo the preliminary rounds, I'll eat my hat. They deserve favouritism for the minor premiership.
