This time last year everyone had Tigers, Warriors and Newy as sure things for the top 4.
I can't even predict 50% of the winners from rd 1 so picking a ladder is nigh on impossible.
In saying that, you gotta look at where teams finished this year and if they recruited well put em at the same spot, or above, and if their losses outweigh their gains put em below where they came.
"excellent recruitment"
Roosters
Sharks
Souths
Newcastle
"astute recruitment"
Storm
Dogs
Titans
"recruitment where gains just about balance losses"
Canberra
Cowboys
Warriors
"negative or negligibe recruitment"
Brisbane
Manly
Parramatta
St George
Tigers
"Awful recruitment"
Penrith.
Now. Recruitment isn't the only indicator, manly for example recruited bugger all but they are a champion side and should be o.k.
Statements like "oh it's an odd year they won't make the finals" don't wash with me either. You judge a team on its merits. The other factor is coaching. There is a lot of changes in coaching this year and I can't put a new club coach, whether he is a first timer in the NRL or an experienced guy at a new club in a top 4 spot. It's just too hard. They need time to adjust and learn the job they are in.
So, on that.
1. Dogs- scary good squad. Good coach and they will be better for last year.
2. Souths - same as above.
3. Storm - origin will cruel their run at the minor premiership but they will be one of the best. Again.
4. Sharks - they'll be better than last year so that puts them here.
5. Roosters- classy, talented team who will be relatively unaffected by origin. Uncle Nick likes to be in the finals.
6. Manly. They know how to win.
7. Newcastle. Class recruitment, we all know what Wayne can do but it will in no way be a perfect season.
8. Cowboys. Class side and anyone with Thurston will win plenty of games but the travel seems to knock them around and even when going good lose plenty on the road.
9. Raiders. Decent team not without it's problems = mid table finish.
10. Broncos. On the slide. Will really feel the loss of Locky this year.
11. Tigers. New coach, lost a host of champs, signed Ray Canasta.. A bit of an unknown quantity really.
12. Gold Coast. Despite good recruitment I'm afraid that No halves equals no wins.
13. Parra. Sticky will fix their defence. They still have a shocking squad.
14. Warriors. Another unknown quantity. They gave up in a lot of games last year and that is a bad sign. You can't back them on the changes they have made but the potential is there.
15. St George. Off season injuries. A host of retirements. A squad full of coffin dodgers and an idiot for a coach. They will roll the Sharks in the derbies and that will be their highlight.
16. Penrith. NSW Cup standard. Good luck to the poor old Pennies. See you in 2014.
