Central Coast Bears - Stand Aside

[Perth Red]

I see no evidence that a CC Bears will necessarily get significantly higher crowds than a WA Reds team.

 

[Loudstrat]

Have you got evidence that they won't?

I think it's funny that just about everybody on this forum, including me, wants your dream to come true. But you return the favor by campaigning for the decline of league in nsw - even if it hurts the reds chances. There is no doubt the CC is the best option for the 17th team in so many ways, and it would open th gate to Perth to be the 18th in 2 1/2 seasons. Why aree you against that?

 

[clarency]

Have you got evidence that they won't?

Well as the CC are the ones attempting to claim they are the best option, it is on them to provide evidence that they will, not the other way around.

I took a unit in logic at uni, trust me... I'm a nerd.

Not that I disagree with you. I'm just trolling.

 

[Loudstrat]

Well, lets see Perths crowds.

Average: 10334 from 30 games. Take the outliers out (2 best and 2 worst crowds) - 9742.

Median crowd - 9345

That amended average BTW is over 1000 less than the worst performer last year.

And all up, Gosford has averaged 13k.

What more evidence do you want ffs????

 

[Rockin Ronny]

I see no evidence that a CC Bears will necessarily get significantly higher crowds than a WA Reds team.

Completely illogical.

CC Bears will have a cachement of home fans stretching from North Sydney up to NewCastle. Crowd figures for Neagles are irrelevant, as we all know, because everyone knew that was the Manly scum pretending to JV.

WA is not a rugby league state. If Freo or WC Eagles are playing in Perth, you will have no-one turning up. Even the Force will drag all the Yarpies out to watch them.

North Sydney and Central Coast people are all about rugby league. It's not a marginal following. There are no other genuine options for a regional team. That's why the Knights are trying to sleaze in and grab this.

The NRL and Singo know the CC Bears will be a winner. That is why every option EXCEPT the CC Bears has been attempted to get a team there in the last 10 years. This is why other clubs don't want a CC Bears team. because they know it will be a powerful force in rugby league - and will show up their own incompetence.

 

[BIKER_DRAGON]

When are you going to grow up Dinky?

The question is Loudsnout when are you going to remove your head from up your arse.:lol:

 

[BIKER_DRAGON]

At the end of the day when new teams are added they (who ever the hell are running the game at the time). Will admit 2 teams and the 2 with the best chance are The Central Coast Bears and the WA Reds. Then all other teams bidding to get in behind them. So PR, Loudsnout and RR it don't much matter who out of the Bears and Reds gets the biggest crowd because both those teams together will be the next into the comp.

 

[bender]

Well, lets see Perths crowds.

Average: 10334 from 30 games. Take the outliers out (2 best and 2 worst crowds) - 9742.

Median crowd - 9345

That amended average BTW is over 1000 less than the worst performer last year.

And all up, Gosford has averaged 13k.

What more evidence do you want ffs????

I am not sure why we would drop off the two best and worst games from the average. But, we should should remember that Perth as grown massively since this time. The site i just looked at shows it has grown from roughly 1.1 million back around 98 to about 1.6 million down (obviously these may not be 100% accurate). that is an increase of 500,000 people, which roughly the equivalent of placing a city the size of Gold Coast, Newcastle, or dare i say it the Central coast, right into the perth area. that is massive.

Plus, unlike previously, you would expect that manyof these migrants will be from NSW/Qld, so there will be a decent percentage of RL fans interested in the game. If the population has in increased by 45%, wouldnt you expect that the average crowd size would also increase by 45% roughly, in most circumstances?

If so, then this would suggest an average crowd of roughly 15000 people. I think this is realistic, looking at the crowds currently being achieved in perth for trial games. Also, if you look at the Gold Coast, whose crowd averages went from somewhere around 7000 to about 18000 when their city grew by a similar amount before they were let into the competition. I think that this gives us a realistic position on where a competive Western reds side will sit with regards to crowds.

Central coast should get similar results. But i must confess, i cant see why Central coast should realistically get crowds which are any better than say Penrith or even Cronulla. In fact, you would think that unless they get some good success early, they will struggle with support and they will be dropped by so many people who have other teams to support and probably support them anyway. Central coast have other good things going for them (and expected crowds is not bad) but they are in no way better placed than Perth in this regard (or at least not to the extent that some people are thinking).

 

[Rockin Ronny]

the 2 with the best chance are The Central Coast Bears and the WA Reds. Then all other teams bidding to get in behind them. So PR, Loudsnout and RR it don't much matter who out of the Bears and Reds gets the biggest crowd because both those teams together will be the next into the comp.

BD

It's not a given.

Bears fans have zero trust in the game's administrators because they have been rorted at least 3 times in 10 years.

That's TEN years by the way - and the Bears still don't have a firm indication if they will be in the NRL OR if the NRL are still trying to pay another club to relocate (which will rort the Bears again) OR if they just won't bother with the Central Coast at all.

If the Western Reds get a Paul bBroughton or Arthurson on their bid team, they will probably get the nod over the Central Coast. That's how it works.

 

[Red Bear]

I think with Perth (as with most clubs at that point) you have to take Super League into account. Their first year crowds were pretty good but the was a drop off everywhere when the heart was torn out of the game by News. They are a huge growth area however, with a large expat population as well as interested locals. I think it's a very good option for League.

 

[Perth Red]

Have you got evidence that they won't?

I think it's funny that just about everybody on this forum, including me, wants your dream to come true. But you return the favor by campaigning for the decline of league in nsw - even if it hurts the reds chances. There is no doubt the CC is the best option for the 17th team in so many ways, and it would open th gate to Perth to be the 18th in 2 1/2 seasons. Why aree you against that?

beyond what both cities are currently drawing for games, which is the only relevenat evidence to go on, no. But then agaon I'm not the one claiming bigger crowds.

you know why I am against a CC team, nothing to do with damaging NSW RL, quite the opposite. I think there are only a max of 4 places for expansion of the NRL in the future. I don't think we should use one of those 4 on another NSW club when A) NSW is arguably already over saturated B) There are much bigger cities and more long term lucrative markets we should be targetting C) We have an opportunity in the future to further make the comp an Intenrational one.

If the Bears get in, well done, they've put together a great bid and I won't lose any sleep over it. I think they will be probably end up a mid table NSW team, stronger than the likes of Manly, Penrith and Sharks but not as strong as Tigers, Bulldogs or Souths (off the field I mean).

 

[Perth Red]

Have you got evidence that they won't?

I think it's funny that just about everybody on this forum, including me, wants your dream to come true. But you return the favor by campaigning for the decline of league in nsw - even if it hurts the reds chances. There is no doubt the CC is the best option for the 17th team in so many ways, and it would open th gate to Perth to be the 18th in 2 1/2 seasons. Why aree you against that?

beyond what both cities are currently drawing for games, which is the only relevenat evidence to go on, no. But then agaon I'm not the one claiming bigger crowds.

you know why I am against a CC team, nothing to do with damaging NSW RL, quite the opposite. I think there are only a max of 4 places for expansion of the NRL in the future. I don't think we should use one of those 4 on another NSW club when A) NSW is arguably already over saturated B) There are much bigger cities and more long term lucrative markets we should be targetting C) We have an opportunity in the future to further make the comp an Intenrational one.

If the Bears get in, well done, they've put together a great bid and I won't lose any sleep over it. I think they will be probably end up a mid table NSW team, stronger than the likes of Manly, Penrith and Sharks but not as strong as Tigers, Bulldogs or Souths (off the field I mean).

 

[Perth Red]

echo

 

[Loudstrat]

There are much bigger cities and more long term lucrative markets we should be targetting

Perth and....?

Whi is bidding? Adelaide? No. Anyone else from Brisbane? Apart from one dole bludger and his logan website - No. Wellington? Jakarta? Los Angeles?

Rocky is. And all of it's residents - roughly equal in population to Umina, Long Jetty and half of Patonga - are raring to go. They can assure the NRL of selling out a a 4k stadium.

Port Moresby is too. Trouble is you have to trade a goat to get into the ground because they have no money. It helps to drive to the ground in an ATV too, so you can arrive alive.

Why wait 20 years and shell out massive investment to build up to what is available at the CC now? If there was a 300k metropolis in WA somewhere that was league Mad, had provided internationals and premiership winning coaches, and had a current bid in place with guaranteed sponsorship, infrastructure and a 22k seat stadium and was ready to go - you'd still campaign against them, right?

Bender, I love your glowing analysis based on bodgey stats, and the fact that CC people will follow another side but Perth based fans of Saints, Brisbane, Manly etc will suddenly follow perth.

Footnote - dropping the "outliers" is a standard statistical tool used to prevent one or a few significantly different statistics skewing the result away from the real picture.

 

[clarency]

Footnote - dropping the "outliers" is a standard statistical tool used to prevent one or a few significantly different statistics skewing the result away from the real picture.

Well you'd have to establish them with significant difference from the mean before saying they're an "outlier". You said top 2 and bottom 2 so I don't think you did. But regardless I'd argue that taking them out may misrepresent the average a smidge. Higher attendences will occur then a team is playing their rival, or a team close by on the table, they're in the finals, etc. All likely to actually happen during the season (granted CC has a one-up on rivalries over Perth here). Same goes for the lower crowds.

While they may be outliers, we can still expect them to happen in the regular season.



I'm still trolling.

 

[Loudstrat]

Just standard statistical practice.

Perths highest were their first couple. You can hardly call Perth v Cronulla a local derby!

 

[Perth Red]

Perth and....?


Why wait 20 years and shell out massive investment to build up to what is available at the CC now? If there was a 300k metropolis in WA somewhere that was league Mad, had provided internationals and premiership winning coaches, and had a current bid in place with guaranteed sponsorship, infrastructure and a 22k seat stadium and was ready to go - you'd still campaign against them, right?

.

If there was already 10 teams in WA close to that area and none in Sydney and Brisbane then yep, I'd def be campaigning not to add another one and to look to bigger more lucrative long term markets.

Reality is CC adds very little to the NRL from a growth point of view. Yes it is a safe option (and will get in I'm sure because of that) but like anything in business the bigger the risk, the bigger the return.

The fact we haven't been able to grow our game beyond our limited boundaries is a damning indictment of the administrators of our game and of the financial straightjacket it has been in for too long. Hopefully that will change one day and we will have the investment $'s to make Adelaide, Perth, Wellington and a 2nd Brisbane team a real possibility.

Many people like to think tomorrow, I like to think over the next 10-30 years where can the game get to.

ps well done you managed to reply without insulting me, must be a first!

 

[Loudstrat]

So you'd rather ignore a ready made market and instead spend millions replicating it somewhere else?

like anything in business the bigger the risk, the bigger the return.

You obviously are not in business are you. How much return would a banana plantation in Antarctica bring?

 

[Perth Red]

So you'd rather ignore a ready made market and instead spend millions replicating it somewhere else?

If the returns from the new market were likely to be bigger, yep absolutely.

 

[Loudstrat]

Thank you for an insight into your thought process. I'll be over in 10 minutes with bottle of Glenfiddich and an investment portfolio for ya.

If you are happy to recieve your first dividend in 25 years time, I'll happily take your money.

Melkbourne have been here 12 years. Reports today suggest that News were pum ping not $6 million, but THIRTEEN million into them, PLUS their NRL grant. How long until they break even?

Of all the sporting teams in new markets in Australia, the two most likely to succeed long term are the Sydney Swans and the Melbourne Storm, simply because of the size of the market they are in. The Lions would need to double the market penetration percentage than the Swans because their market is half the size of Sydney. Yet the Swans are still reportedly pumped money far over and above the AFL clubs based in their heartland.

In a cash strapped game, it's better to put a club in Gosford now that doesn't need extra propping up. Then let the future take care of itself. Who knows what the landscape will look like in 25 years time? Compare todays League landscape with that 25 years ago. In 1985 this comp only went to Wollongong and Canberra, and no further than Asquith. Newtown and Wests still had dreams of bring in the comp. No one knew what a Bronco was. Newcastle was the bush side that played Parra in a pre season trial. The GF was played at the SCG.

The game only grew because we planted clubs in heartland areas that survived under their own steam from day 1. Only when SL came along were clubs threatened.

The next round of expansion in 2013 will include your side. This is because it will also include the Bears, and the TV rights deal will include 26 extra games. And Perth will expect to be propped up, unlike the Bears.

I'm baffled as to how it makes business sense to ignore an area that will make money and not lose it?