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Early Ladder Predictions 2007

camsmith

Juniors
Messages
1,727
I've probably jumped the gun, but with the preseason only two weeks away... It's a good time to have a wild guess at what the 2007 ladder will look like.. and any other predictions.

Dunno what the go is with the new forum starting up but until then...

Here's how 2006 finished:

1. West Coast
2. Adelaide
3. Fremantle
4. Sydney
5. Collingwood
6. Saints
7. Melbourne
8. Bulldogs
9. Tiges

10. Geelong
11. Hawthorn
12. Port Adelaide
13. Brisbane
14. North Melbourne
15. Essendon
16. Carlton
 

camsmith

Juniors
Messages
1,727
1. West Coast - Unstoppable
2. Geelong - My Surprise team (although Otto still has an awful year, the dud :sarcasm:)
3. Sydney - Bazza looking to make up for GF, hear he is training as hard as ever
4. Bulldogs - Form team, good coach.. see no reason why they cant make top 4
5. Fremantle - Hurts me to type this
6. Adelaide - Solid, although if they get off to a slow start it might kill their confidence and it could turn out bad for them
7. Mighty Tiges! Yep.. we'll sneak in (Kingsley to prove all the whinging Tiger supporters wrong)
6. Hawthorn - Saw Mitchell having a nice meal with a stunner the other day, they're the goods for the 8 (.. and obviously Mitchell has recovered the the two 'knocks' he suffered last season)

9. North Melbourne - Same as always, there or there abouts but their percentage will hurt them
10. Saints - You read it correctly, they'll have a terrible start and fall just a game short of the 8
11. Melbourne - Unlike the Saints the Dees will get off to a flyer but fall in a heap.. Good news though, we'll have record snow falls
12. Port Adelaide - Pathetic ageing team.. getting tired just thinking about how crap they are
13. Brisbane - Just see them letting in too many goals..
14. Essendon - No miracles for Hirdy. Sheeds seriously considers retiring with Hird
15. Carlton - Still a good 4-5 years from even thinking about a finals spot
16. Collingwood - Despite having an easy draw.. will finish bottom on percentage. Joffa will lose his remaining two teeth when Tarrant from one meter out kicks a absolute screamer that hits Joffa square in the mouth. It makes Sports Tonight's 'Play of the Day' and is awarded Goal of the Year simply for the fact that no other goal in history has made people laugh so hard.

* Now lets see how wrong i am..
 

CyberKev

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
2,323
Nice work, Cammers, and its good to see you back on deck for 2007.

I'll wait until March to put mine forward. There are two reasons for this; firstly I'm hoping the new site will be up and running by then and secondly I'm preparing a tipping system/model for 2007, and I may also use it to predict team performances across the season (before the season starts). Basically, I'm looking at a statistics based instrument that'll take my heart out of the equation and won't leave me vulnerable to my pesky biases.

Prior to conducting that process, however, I can still pass comment on Cammers list.

* On the whole, it looks very feasible.

* Every cat and his dog seems to be picking the West Coast double-up, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them slump down the ladder a few spots. Last year's side was certainly one of the least impressive premiership sides I can remember across decades of VFL/AFL watching and I don't see much improvement (in the short term at least) in the team as a whole. It should also be remembered that the Eagles struggled badly against battling sides like: Geelong, Hawthorn, Kangaroos & Carlton before sneaking out of jail. Also, if you think back to the GF, you're hard pressed identifying a Swans player who broke even on the day (much less won his position) and yet the Eagles could still only finish a point to the good. They'll certainly make the finals, but may struggle to finish top two.

* A lot of people are predicting Geelong to automatically bounce back into the eight, but I still feel they'll go closer to the bottom four than the top four. Perhaps its just the memory of how easily they were taken apart by Hawthorn both times in 2006, but there are certainly worrying signs about the Cat structure. Geelong is efffectively chockers with blue collar toilers and is sadly lacking for a couple of exciting impetus players who can punch holes in an opposition outfit. When Geelong falls away, even slightly, with its workrate it become sorely exposed.

* Prior to working through my 'unbiased season predictor', Sydney actually looks the most dangerous side, provided Hall & Everitt can keep themselves healthy. The other main worry for the Swans is how firmly the umpries police the new 'hands in the back' interpretation. Leo Barry would have to be the worst offender for this in the competition, and Sydney could take some hits down back if he isn't permitted the free licence to shove that he has enjoyed across recent years.

* After a long finals absence, the Tigers look good things for a lower eight berth, but much will depend on how Richardson & Brown can travel up forward. The loss of Coughlan (again) will hurt, but assuming they can avoid any other major impediments, their top side looks solid and reasonably well balanced.

* I disagree with Cam's assertion on Port. They have a very good young brigade coming through, and if Tredrea, Lade & Burgoyne can keep vertical, they should join the Tigers in breaking into the eight.

* Collingwood, despite a very easy draw, will be one side to fall out of the top eight and Melbourne will join them.

* Would like to be able to say that I can see Hawthorn making the eight, but while they have close to the best inside midfield stocks in the competition and a very good complement of peripheral players; Croad is the only experienced and established KPP on the list, the ruck stocks are lean overall, and someone still has to put their hand up and claim the problematic fullback spot. Will look to hold pace (win-loss wise) with last year's results.

* The wooden spoon should again be a hard fought affair and while the Kangaroos and Carlton have serious claims, I have a gut feeling that Brisbane are capable of beating them all for it. Brisbane have plenty of rucks, but most are at developmental stage; they have bugger all of any note down back, and their midfield is leaner than in previous years and looks a tad tired. Brown, Bradshaw & Brennan could be a dangerous key forward trio, but all three are injury prone and the ball does have to actually get down there.

* Both the Bulldogs and Freo should have strong years and Adelaide should have enough in reserve to make the eight for one last time (in the immediate future).

Of course, I'll probably be telling a markedly different story come March.
 

Twizzle

Administrator
Staff member
Messages
141,117
camsmith said:
1. West Coast - Unstoppable
2. Geelong - My Surprise team (although Otto still has an awful year, the dud :sarcasm:)
3. Sydney - Bazza looking to make up for GF, hear he is training as hard as ever
4. Bulldogs - Form team, good coach.. see no reason why they cant make top 4
5. Fremantle - Hurts me to type this
6. Adelaide - Solid, although if they get off to a slow start it might kill their confidence and it could turn out bad for them
7. Mighty Tiges! Yep.. we'll sneak in (Kingsley to prove all the whinging Tiger supporters wrong)
6. Hawthorn - Saw Mitchell having a nice meal with a stunner the other day, they're the goods for the 8 (.. and obviously Mitchell has recovered the the two 'knocks' he suffered last season)

9. North Melbourne - Same as always, there or there abouts but their percentage will hurt them
10. Saints - You read it correctly, they'll have a terrible start and fall just a game short of the 8
11. Melbourne - Unlike the Saints the Dees will get off to a flyer but fall in a heap.. Good news though, we'll have record snow falls
12. Port Adelaide - Pathetic ageing team.. getting tired just thinking about how crap they are
13. Brisbane - Just see them letting in too many goals..
14. Essendon - No miracles for Hirdy. Sheeds seriously considers retiring with Hird
15. Carlton - Still a good 4-5 years from even thinking about a finals spot
16. Collingwood - Despite having an easy draw.. will finish bottom on percentage. Joffa will lose his remaining two teeth when Tarrant from one meter out kicks a absolute screamer that hits Joffa square in the mouth. It makes Sports Tonight's 'Play of the Day' and is awarded Goal of the Year simply for the fact that no other goal in history has made people laugh so hard.

* Now lets see how wrong i am..

I agree Otto has been a dud but our forward like will revolve around our younguns, like Playfair and Nathan Abblett who still may be a bit inexperienced.

Even I think 2nd may be a bit ambitious, but I do expect us to impreove on last year, as we finnished the year pretty poorly.

I also think Hawthorne wil be a big mover up the ladder.

Need to see a few games before we know what other teams are doing, imo.
 

CyberKev

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
2,323
Twizzle said:
I also think Hawthorne wil be a big mover up the ladder.

Now what have I been saying about Sydney-siders? :lol:

Hawthorne may yet prove to be the big mover of 2007, but I still don't think Hawthorn will do quite as well as some people are predicting, bugger it!
 

meltiger

First Grade
Messages
6,263
camsmith said:
1. West Coast - Unstoppable
2. Geelong - My Surprise team (although Otto still has an awful year, the dud :sarcasm:)
3. Sydney - Bazza looking to make up for GF, hear he is training as hard as ever
4. Bulldogs - Form team, good coach.. see no reason why they cant make top 4
5. Fremantle - Hurts me to type this
6. Adelaide - Solid, although if they get off to a slow start it might kill their confidence and it could turn out bad for them
7. Mighty Tiges! Yep.. we'll sneak in (Kingsley to prove all the whinging Tiger supporters wrong)
6. Hawthorn - Saw Mitchell having a nice meal with a stunner the other day, they're the goods for the 8 (.. and obviously Mitchell has recovered the the two 'knocks' he suffered last season)

9. North Melbourne - Same as always, there or there abouts but their percentage will hurt them
10. Saints - You read it correctly, they'll have a terrible start and fall just a game short of the 8
11. Melbourne - Unlike the Saints the Dees will get off to a flyer but fall in a heap.. Good news though, we'll have record snow falls
12. Port Adelaide - Pathetic ageing team.. getting tired just thinking about how crap they are
13. Brisbane - Just see them letting in too many goals..
14. Essendon - No miracles for Hirdy. Sheeds seriously considers retiring with Hird
15. Carlton - Still a good 4-5 years from even thinking about a finals spot
16. Collingwood - Despite having an easy draw.. will finish bottom on percentage. Joffa will lose his remaining two teeth when Tarrant from one meter out kicks a absolute screamer that hits Joffa square in the mouth. It makes Sports Tonight's 'Play of the Day' and is awarded Goal of the Year simply for the fact that no other goal in history has made people laugh so hard.

* Now lets see how wrong i am..

Agree on your top 8 and bottom 8 Cams except I'd swap the pussies with St Kilda. i'd also switch up the positions a little. Collingwood won't make the finals (Although with 30 games a year on the MCG anything is possible) but they won't win the spoon.

North Melbourne are monties for that award this year. Carlton will improve more than most think.
 

lockyno1

Immortal
Messages
49,756
Ok here is my go

1. West Coast- they'll finish with the minor premiership, class all over the place, led by the best player we have seen in 10 years Chris Judd.

2. Western Bulldogs- Jason Akermanis wins the brownlow with a career best year and the dogs reach the grand final and cause the big boilover in the Grand final

3. Sydney- They have class and if Goodes is fit anything can happen.

4. Freo- They'll win enough games to get 4th

5. Adelaide- depends on injuries, anywhere from 5th to 9th. Key injuries will hurt them.

6. Melbourne- Solid year, Davey polls well in the brownlow finishing 4th.

7. Saints- too much class to miss the 8, but won't make the 4.

8. Collingwood- get 8th, but play below potential all year.

9. Geelong- inconsistent year coupled with the usual choke sees them finish 9th

10. Hawthorn- a year where they should have done better.

11. North Melbourne- Better than expected, Harvey inspirational.

12- Tigers- If Couglan was not out for 12mths I'd give the tigers a chance to make the 8.

13. Port- solid year in rebuilding

14. Brisbane- Mal Michael a big loss but get the Rising Star with Luxemberg proving my prediction right that we should have taken him at 2! f**k Bombers are twits!

15. Carlton-Still crap despite Gibbs' efforts.

16- Essendon- get the no1 draft pick in a year where Hird retires and Angus Monfries is elected as the new vice captain. Locky is happy with the no1 pick!
 

meltiger

First Grade
Messages
6,263
CyberKev said:
won't leave me vulnerable to my pesky biases.

You mean you might have to tip Richmond on occasion?

CyberKev said:
* Every cat and his dog seems to be picking the West Coast double-up, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them slump down the ladder a few spots. They'll certainly make the finals, but may struggle to finish top two.

With their ability to dominate Subiaco, they only need to win a couple of road games to finish top 4 or better.

CyberKev said:
* A lot of people are predicting Geelong to automatically bounce back into the eight, but I still feel they'll go closer to the bottom four than the top four.

Agree 100%

CyberKev said:
* Prior to working through my 'unbiased season predictor', Sydney actually looks the most dangerous side, provided Hall & Everitt can keep themselves healthy.

Sydney have had a charmed run over the last 2 years on the injury front which has made them look better than what they are.

One can cite their premiership victory as an example of why I am wrong, but simple fact is, if the umpires had of been doing their jobs correctly, Ashely Sampi (i think) would have been having a shot on goal after the siren instead of Leo Barry being lauded for his mark. (Nearly makes me vomit everytime I see the photo of that mark and remember that the entire football world seems to ignore the Swans player who is tackling Sampi whilst he is attempting to take the mark)

Sydney are and always were rubbish, sooner or later the injury gods are going to take out their vengeance and then we'll see the real Sydney.

CyberKev said:
* After a long finals absence, the Tigers look good things for a lower eight berth, but much will depend on how Richardson & Brown can travel up forward. The loss of Coughlan (again) will hurt, but assuming they can avoid any other major impediments, their top side looks solid and reasonably well balanced.

:) Browny is reportedly in tip top shape. Will certainly be good for 40 odd goals in the forward line, what we need is for his endurance to increase to the level where he can play at least a quarter in the centre.

The keys to Richmond this year will be the younger players, Jay, Polak and the Cousin will be massive keys to our season.

CyberKev said:
* Would like to be able to say that I can see Hawthorn making the eight, but while they have close to the best inside midfield stocks in the competition and a very good complement of peripheral players; Croad is the only experienced and established KPP on the list, the ruck stocks are lean overall, and someone still has to put their hand up and claim the problematic fullback spot. Will look to hold pace (win-loss wise) with last year's results.

As much as I am expecting very big things this season to start happening for our 5 top 20 picks, Hawthorn supporters should be expecting the same from their players of that draft. Jarryd, Buddy, Lewis etc. I personally think that ruckmen getting injured will hurt the Hawks hugely, but prior to that I would have been picking them to be in a group of 6 teams vying for the bottom 4 spots (My own team being one of those 6) in the 8

CyberKev said:
* The wooden spoon should again be a hard fought affair and while the Kangaroos and Carlton have serious claims, I have a gut feeling that Brisbane are capable of beating them all for it. Brisbane have plenty of rucks, but most are at developmental stage; they have bugger all of any note down back, and their midfield is leaner than in previous years and looks a tad tired. Brown, Bradshaw & Brennan could be a dangerous key forward trio, but all three are injury prone and the ball does have to actually get down there.

Carlton will be big improvers, if they can be even slightly tight down back, they have some good young talent coming through which will be enough to feed enough ball to Fevola to ensure they can rise out of spoon area. I think they are capable of winning anywhere from 6-10 games this year.

Brisbane are also capable of 6-10 wins, but that is entirely dependant on the games premier CHF staying on the park. Brown goes down, and Brisbane are in big big trouble.

North Melbourne are sh*t and will win the spoon without question.
 

meltiger

First Grade
Messages
6,263
If any Sydney tragic wants to explain how the one on the left is not a free kick to West Coast I'm all ears :)

leobarrymontage_wideweb__430x1581.jpg
 

meltiger

First Grade
Messages
6,263
lockyno1 said:
12- Tigers- If Couglan was not out for 12mths I'd give the tigers a chance to make the 8.

Pfft. Should have traded him when he had currency.

Deledio is about to step up and show Judd how it's really done. :cool: Richmond will make the 8
 

lockyno1

Immortal
Messages
49,756
meltiger said:
Pfft. Should have traded him when he had currency.

Deledio is about to step up and show Judd how it's really done. :cool: Richmond will make the 8

We'll see, I just can't see it. Couglan is a massive loss IMO!
 

Twizzle

Administrator
Staff member
Messages
141,117
meltiger said:
:lol: Think Twiz lives on the GC ... Still, northerners are northerners :p

you can tell its been a long time since I lived in Victoria
 

meltiger

First Grade
Messages
6,263
lockyno1 said:
We'll see, I just can't see it. Couglan is a massive loss IMO!

As I just posted in the other thread, prior to being injured, he was struggling to kick the ball 40 metres because he was playing injured.


Richmond will be fine without him.
 

skeepe

Immortal
Messages
38,053
1. St Kilda
2. Carlton
3. Gold Coast
4. Port Adelaide
5. Fremantle
6. Adelaide
7. Brisbane
8. Collingwood

9. Richmond
10. Bulldogs
11. Geelong
12. Melbourne
13. Essendon
14. Hawthorn
15. West Coast
16. Sydney
 

camsmith

Juniors
Messages
1,727
CyberKev said:
Nice work, Cammers, and its good to see you back on deck for 2007.

I'll wait until March to put mine forward. There are two reasons for this; firstly I'm hoping the new site will be up and running by then and secondly I'm preparing a tipping system/model for 2007, and I may also use it to predict team performances across the season (before the season starts). Basically, I'm looking at a statistics based instrument that'll take my heart out of the equation and won't leave me vulnerable to my pesky biases.

Good to be back on deck. Thought I'd start the thread up to get some footy talk started...
Looking forward to the new site.

CyberKev said:
* Every cat and his dog seems to be picking the West Coast double-up, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them slump down the ladder a few spots. Last year's side was certainly one of the least impressive premiership sides I can remember across decades of VFL/AFL watching and I don't see much improvement (in the short term at least) in the team as a whole. It should also be remembered that the Eagles struggled badly against battling sides like: Geelong, Hawthorn, Kangaroos & Carlton before sneaking out of jail. Also, if you think back to the GF, you're hard pressed identifying a Swans player who broke even on the day (much less won his position) and yet the Eagles could still only finish a point to the good. They'll certainly make the finals, but may struggle to finish top two.

I just think with the home field advantage and Melbourne teams still being below their best they'll get enough points to be up near the top of the ladder.

CyberKev said:
* A lot of people are predicting Geelong to automatically bounce back into the eight, but I still feel they'll go closer to the bottom four than the top four. Perhaps its just the memory of how easily they were taken apart by Hawthorn both times in 2006, but there are certainly worrying signs about the Cat structure. Geelong is efffectively chockers with blue collar toilers and is sadly lacking for a couple of exciting impetus players who can punch holes in an opposition outfit. When Geelong falls away, even slightly, with its workrate it become sorely exposed.

They cant get much worse than last year. Remember they lost (that i can remember) many close games so if they have a bit of luck they should be good enough for a top 4 finish. 2nd place might flatter them a bit i admit.

CyberKev said:
* Prior to working through my 'unbiased season predictor', Sydney actually looks the most dangerous side, provided Hall & Everitt can keep themselves healthy. The other main worry for the Swans is how firmly the umpries police the new 'hands in the back' interpretation. Leo Barry would have to be the worst offender for this in the competition, and Sydney could take some hits down back if he isn't permitted the free licence to shove that he has enjoyed across recent years.

Yep agree with all that, they could easily grab first and second spots. They are just too good at home, IMO the best home team.

CyberKev said:
* After a long finals absence, the Tigers look good things for a lower eight berth, but much will depend on how Richardson & Brown can travel up forward. The loss of Coughlan (again) will hurt, but assuming they can avoid any other major impediments, their top side looks solid and reasonably well balanced.

Good thing is we have a fair few midfielders. Hopefully Tucky can have a season like 2005 and a couple of our youngsters like Howart can step up.


CyberKev said:
* I disagree with Cam's assertion on Port. They have a very good young brigade coming through, and if Tredrea, Lade & Burgoyne can keep vertical, they should join the Tigers in breaking into the eight.

Yeah they're starting to rebuild again... i still think they're still a few years off.

CyberKev said:
* Collingwood, despite a very easy draw, will be one side to fall out of the top eight and Melbourne will join them.

* Would like to be able to say that I can see Hawthorn making the eight, but while they have close to the best inside midfield stocks in the competition and a very good complement of peripheral players; Croad is the only experienced and established KPP on the list, the ruck stocks are lean overall, and someone still has to put their hand up and claim the problematic fullback spot. Will look to hold pace (win-loss wise) with last year's results.

Yep,

On Hawthorn... maybe its our awful game in Tassie thats the reason i could be thinking they are better than they actually are, but if you look at that game (of course one game means nothing) you see there are many ways you can get goals. If Hawthorn look at how West Coast go about playing with a gun midfield but not much else and pick up some tips and get enough goals from your midfielders... then you should be able to sneak into the 8.

CyberKev said:
* The wooden spoon should again be a hard fought affair and while the Kangaroos and Carlton have serious claims, I have a gut feeling that Brisbane are capable of beating them all for it. Brisbane have plenty of rucks, but most are at developmental stage; they have bugger all of any note down back, and their midfield is leaner than in previous years and looks a tad tired. Brown, Bradshaw & Brennan could be a dangerous key forward trio, but all three are injury prone and the ball does have to actually get down there.

I dont think the Roos will make the finals, but i dont think they'll be that bad. They still have quality players and sure they're getting old but they should still be able to stay around the middle of the table.

Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood i feel will have disappointing years.

CyberKev said:
Of course, I'll probably be telling a markedly different story come March.

And after round 1 im sure i'll also have vastly different predictions.

Just wanted to ge the ball rolling.... :D
 
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