Expansion, Manly and the Coasts

[Goddo]

Or Merge its a shame that St Merge didn't have the honour to fall on their sword.

The end result would have been the same.

Illawarra would have folded/failed the criteria. Cronulla and St George would have still been fighting each other for southern supremacy, and one would be bound to look at taking games to Wollongong.

 

[flippikat]

If all of this expansion was done right in the 90's then all Sydney teams bar Penrith would have merged with another team and we'd already have a Central Coast/Manly team in existance.

It's too late for that to happen now the NRL have to risk alienating a group of fans by relocating or killing off a team. They can't even bribe existing teams to move to the Central Coast as it is.

This is a big mess all because it wasn't done right the first time.

I thought the ARL originally had plans in the mid-90s to reduce the number of Sydney teams over the long-run by attrition?

 

[flippikat]

I agree with you for the most part, but I think if a Sydney club goes broke, the NRL will probably bail them out but they will want their pound of flesh in return - there won't be free cash for perenial strugglers.

The situation is NSW complex, and there is little demand from the games national sponsors and broadcasters for more NSW content. The simple choice for the NRL is to expand where the game needs to, and wait and see on the situation in NSW.

The Sunny coast can't sustain a team until around 2025 anyway so its a moot point. They don't have the population yet, although the local council has wisely put asside land for a 40k stadium in the future.

Manly's problems are more pressing, but can't be simply fixed by relocating - stadium, ownership issues, admin issues, neiche market. Stadium funding, ownership fights, admin, and reaching beyond current market aren't problems that are necissarily fixed by moving.

The NRL won't add another side to NSW when the situation is delicate currently, and it doesn't improve revenue streams from advertising and broadcast rights. They will probably go with Brisbane and Perth. Wether thats the Bombers/Corridor bid or something else...

I think the Sydney situation will come to a head during the next TV deal - 2018-2023. Relocation, fold or relegate... dunno which but something will change.

I'd say that's the best summary of the situation I've seen so far.

Sooner or later I think there will be a 'tipping point' where commercial pressures will demand a reduction in NSW teams - and demand it so strongly that the NRL's hand will be forced.

It might not be in this coming set of broadcasting rights negotiations, but I can see it in the next set of negotiations (2015, give or take?) - especially if the competition is exactly the same 16 clubs in exactly the same geographical locations.

 

[age.s]

And if the Bears come back in from 2015, how much of that potential do they take away? They are after all claiming they'll reconnect with the North Shore and the big end of town. Surely that won't help if the Sea Eagles are already struggling now with the entire area to themselves.

Leigh.

If there's room for 4 successful teams west of Homebush then there's room for 2 successful teams north of the bridge, particularly given that the Bears bid is a regional one with mostly historic links to the North Shore. Even if the Bears bid was positioned as a regional/metro hybrid like the Dragons (which it's not) the Northern Beaches should have a big enough population to sustain an NRL team, so the question is whether Manly are leveraging that opportunity which is a completely separate issue.

The Bears/Manly rivalry is one of the greatest in the sports history, bringing the Bears back is a reason to keep Manly where they are more than the reverse IMO.

 

[docbrown]

They've had 10 years to try to turn a population of people who loved the Bears and hated Manly into fans of the club. Geez, I'm sure Parra could get thousands of Bulldogs fans to support the Eels in 10 years if the Dogs suddenly disappeared. I have no doubt that in time the support for Manly on the Norths Shore will grow but it's not going to happen while the majority of people on the NS are butthurt Bears fans or yawnion fans.

Sure, Bears have been gone for a decade but even before that Manly has barely bothered to expand its brand outside of its own enclave.

Ignore the Bears issue and think about statements coming from Manly HQ about the Sea Eagles territory including North Sydney & the Central Coast.

Sure a couple of money raising trial games, but honestly, what work has been put into it to justify that claim? It'd be like Penrith claiming all the territory from Western Sydney to Perth just because they're furthest west.

If Manly want to claim North Sydney & Central Coast for themselves, then they should actually come up with a realistic plan for it. Until they do, the Bears are the better option.

It's actually to Manly's benefit to have the Bears back because it makes people talk about rugby league in general rather than other sports.

 

[Loudstrat]

This years avg 13,121 and that was winning the comp, what would it be like if they came bottom for a few seasons? If they hadn't made and won the GF they would have lost $1.4mill this year, bit of a risk relying on a GF win to pull you out the mire every year.

Wouldnt the average be higher AFTER they won the GF? Winning the GF would have no impact upon crowds before it happened.

r

e the argument fans prefer suburban grounds, consider this, not one single traditional suburban ground drew a bigger season avg than ANY of the modern stadia in the NRL.

Bullsh*t. Campbelltown, Leichhardt and Kogarah got more than the Bubble Bath, Parramatta and Canberra, and Brooky did better than the latter two.

I'd say that's the best summary of the situation I've seen so far.

Sooner or later I think there will be a 'tipping point' where commercial pressures will demand a reduction in NSW teams - and demand it so strongly that the NRL's hand will be forced.

It might not be in this coming set of broadcasting rights negotiations, but I can see it in the next set of negotiations (2015, give or take?) - especially if the competition is exactly the same 16 clubs in exactly the same geographical locations.

Goddo has two great points: The thinking of the number crunchers that advise TV execs is about putting saleable product to expansion markets outside the Newcastle-Sydney-Wollongong corridor. Also, the failure of SE QLD sides to survive in populations similar to NSW clubs is appalling, and the Sunshine Coast needs a more robust set of figures than the Titans bid gave.

The thing everyone forgets is that it is not a two way balance between NSW clubs and non NSW clubs. It's a three way balance between admitting expansion clubs, managing the number of teams in the comp, and managing the resources (both financial and player quality).

This is because it is virtually impossible to get rid of clubs in real terms. There are only 3 ways to do it.
1) Punt them. And endure the long expensive legal battle that will follow, not to mention angering your market.
2) Relocate. Good idea, but where? Adelaide? No Market. Sunny Coast? Doubtful it will sustain a side more than any existing club's district. (There have only ever been 3 relocation attempts - two resulted in the death of the relocating club)
3) Merge. With the perennial $8 million on the table, no one has even considered it in a decade.

The other option is to wait for a death. Cronulla and Souths have been on death row for decades - and successfully survived 5 expansion clubs. They are going nowhere.

And therefore the NSW landscape will probably not change in the forseeable future.

 

[Loudstrat]

Sure, Bears have been gone for a decade but even before that Manly has barely bothered to expand its brand outside of its own enclave.

Im wondering how any club could do that without taking games somewhere. Are you suggesting Manly should have home games at NSO? Besides, Manly are hated west of Middle Harbourn - no ones marketing is that good.

 

[papabear]

How intelligent is it to brag about paying more money to the government for every dollar you earn.

In my opinion the intelligent man maximises his earnings and minimises his tax liabilities. But then thats just me.

On a side note, I grew up on the north shore and have inlaws in manly.

Honestly, manly do the right thing in playing out of brookvale, it connects to the community better.

The bulldogs imo would be even stronger then they are now if they had belmore upgrade and played there 6 smaller games for the year their.

Souths playing out of Stadium Australia is just a joke, all it does is make easts crowd average look not so absolutely shit with the souths fans who attend game 1.

IMO manly have more juniors and more growth potential then easts imo.

 

[Perth Red]

Wouldnt the average be higher AFTER they won the GF? Winning the GF would have no impact upon crowds before it happened..

Not really, to win the GF you have had a pretty good year all year winning most games which should see a winning momentum drawing the crowds in as the season goes on. Not like Manly scraped into 8th and fluked a GF win! Compare this scenario to losing your first 6 games and bumping along bottom 3, what's Manly's crowds going to be like then?

rBullsh*t. Campbelltown, Leichhardt and Kogarah got more than the Bubble Bath, Parramatta and Canberra, and Brooky did better than the latter two...

err no SFS, Stadium Australia, Suncorp all did better. Only true modern stadia that didn;t beat a suburban ground was AAMI and that is due to being an expansion area for the game. Reality is the suburban grounds are not going to allow clubs to top 20k crowd avg's or sell corporate boxes to the level that brings them income streams to keep up. If they can make up the income elsewhere and the game doesn;t mind seeing 13k crowds great, otherwise its time for some different answers, as the saying goes if you do things the same way you will get the same results.

 

[Bro Bear]

If any current Sydney based team is to move it will be Cronulla and WA looks to be a new base, after all there is limited juniors in WA of NRL standard and the Sharks can still develop their Sydney juniors.

 

[bobmar28]

Finally a rival supporter with a bit of common sense. Manly are not encroaching on ANY other teams region. They should be left to their own area while other teams that are on top of each other or don't really have an identity anymore (50uff$) should be encouraged to move.

Or merge. Parramatta Panthers would be the perfect merger. A super club to take on the GWS Giants.

 

[Goddo]

Goddo has two great points: The thinking of the number crunchers that advise TV execs is about putting saleable product to expansion markets outside the Newcastle-Sydney-Wollongong corridor. Also, the failure of SE QLD sides to survive in populations similar to NSW clubs is appalling, and the Sunshine Coast needs a more robust set of figures than the Titans bid gave.

The thing everyone forgets is that it is not a two way balance between NSW clubs and non NSW clubs. It's a three way balance between admitting expansion clubs, managing the number of teams in the comp, and managing the resources (both financial and player quality).

This is because it is virtually impossible to get rid of clubs in real terms. There are only 3 ways to do it.
1) Punt them. And endure the long expensive legal battle that will follow, not to mention angering your market.
2) Relocate. Good idea, but where? Adelaide? No Market. Sunny Coast? Doubtful it will sustain a side more than any existing club's district. (There have only ever been 3 relocation attempts - two resulted in the death of the relocating club)
3) Merge. With the perennial $8 million on the table, no one has even considered it in a decade.

The other option is to wait for a death. Cronulla and Souths have been on death row for decades - and successfully survived 5 expansion clubs. They are going nowhere.

And therefore the NSW landscape will probably not change in the forseeable future.

You are right. But the problem is the Sydney clubs are all struggling against each other. There needs to be a bit more room for movement there. I think all the current clubs will survive, but 2 will always be knocking on deaths door because of the saturated market. Adding more teams to the mix will only make matters worse.

Cronulla will be gone if the development falls through, but that is unlikely. They will always struggle against its bigger neighbour. Manly have to break out of the coast and reach into North Sydney, maybe even Central Coast. Penrith need to fix their brand. Everyone needs more exposure.

Meanwhile, the situation in Queensland is quite simple really. The state can probably sustain 5 teams by 2030 - both new clubs would need to be in the South East Queensland region where the majority of the population will be.

The NRL can adopt one of two stratergies here.

1. Solar System style set up - Broncos at the heart of Rugby League in Queensland, with 2 new "satellite" sides in the outer population centres with the best locations being Ipswich-Logan and Sunshine Coast-North Brisbane-Redcliffe. This would require two regional stadiums from Government, and the satellite sides taking the occasional home game to Suncorp.

2. Man City/Man Utd set up in Brisbane with a club like the Bombers, with another more regional side, probably the Sunshine Coast that also reaches North into Central Queensland rather than South towards the city. Requires only 1 new stadium, but branding of Brisbane II has to be done right.

Then we still need to get a presence in the big metro markets - Perth is an absolute must because of timezone, 4th largest city, more pro-League than Melbourne, anti-siphoning changes to Free to air... it makes sense.

Adelaide on the other hand is pointless - only 1.1M people, AFL mad with 2 sides - its like combining the populations of Canberra and Newcastle.

Wellington/Christchurch is the next most imporant new market after Perth, but with a weak Kiwi ecconomy its unlikely for some time. PNG is no hope (get em in the Queensland cup for now).

 

[flippikat]

You are right. But the problem is the Sydney clubs are all struggling against each other. There needs to be a bit more room for movement there. I think all the current clubs will survive, but 2 will always be knocking on deaths door because of the saturated market. Adding more teams to the mix will only make matters worse.

Cronulla will be gone if the development falls through, but that is unlikely. They will always struggle against its bigger neighbour. Manly have to break out of the coast and reach into North Sydney, maybe even Central Coast. Penrith need to fix their brand. Everyone needs more exposure.

Meanwhile, the situation in Queensland is quite simple really. The state can probably sustain 5 teams by 2030 - both new clubs would need to be in the South East Queensland region where the majority of the population will be.

The NRL can adopt one of two stratergies here.

1. Solar System style set up - Broncos at the heart of Rugby League in Queensland, with 2 new "satellite" sides in the outer population centres with the best locations being Ipswich-Logan and Sunshine Coast-North Brisbane-Redcliffe. This would require two regional stadiums from Government, and the satellite sides taking the occasional home game to Suncorp.

2. Man City/Man Utd set up in Brisbane with a club like the Bombers, with another more regional side, probably the Sunshine Coast that also reaches North into Central Queensland rather than South towards the city. Requires only 1 new stadium, but branding of Brisbane II has to be done right.

Then we still need to get a presence in the big metro markets - Perth is an absolute must because of timezone, 4th largest city, more pro-League than Melbourne, anti-siphoning changes to Free to air... it makes sense.

Adelaide on the other hand is pointless - only 1.1M people, AFL mad with 2 sides - its like combining the populations of Canberra and Newcastle.

Wellington/Christchurch is the next most imporant new market after Perth, but with a weak Kiwi ecconomy its unlikely for some time. PNG is no hope (get em in the Queensland cup for now).

Picking up on some points from above...

Your point about Brisbane is a good one - if the plan is for a Man Utd/Man City-style set-up, then I would say that the 2nd Brisbane team would have to be a new identity and not just the outgrowth of an existing Qld Cup side.

The problem is, the bidding team that's trying to be a new identity (Brisbane Bombers) doesn't seem to be gaining much traction with fans. I wonder if this relative lack-of-support will make the NRL favour the satellite-style set-up (Jets in the West, Broncos in central Brisbane, Sunshine Coast/Redcliffe to the north) ?

New Zealand has problems that will take at least 5 years to fix before we can have a 2nd NRL team. I'm unsure whether Wellington's stadium can accomodate an NRL home season in it's already busy year, Christchurch is wrecked by earthquakes, Hamilton remains an outside chance (although rather close to Auckland geographically), and Dunedin - although it has the most modern (indoor!) stadium in NZ - is not our biggest Rugby league city by a long shot.

Adelaide remains just a dot on the map - for now.
Sure, right now there are other places that have a bigger RL culture who could sustain a team - in Qld, New Zealand and even Perth - but once the competition is balanced and well spread amongst RL heartland, Adelaide will be a good market to have "in reserve" for an expansion team. (especially if we're comparing us to ARL - who have all but exhausted the major expansion markets) More so if we take a few games per season there to get some sort of a following for the code established.

 

[Loudstrat]

Not really, to win the GF you have had a pretty good year all year winning most games which should see a winning momentum drawing the crowds in as the season goes on. Not like Manly scraped into 8th and fluked a GF win! Compare this scenario to losing your first 6 games and bumping along bottom 3, what's Manly's crowds going to be like then?

Manly only looked like a real gf chance only after the wind was knocked out of the sails of the Dragons and they beat Melbourne at Brooky in the last few rounds. The "in with a chance" syndrome you speak of would have affected all of the top 7 sides this year.

err no SFS, Stadium Australia, Suncorp all did better. Only true modern stadia that didn;t beat a suburban ground was AAMI and that is due to being an expansion area for the game. Reality is the suburban grounds are not going to allow clubs to top 20k crowd avg's or sell corporate boxes to the level that brings them income streams to keep up. If they can make up the income elsewhere and the game doesn;t mind seeing 13k crowds great, otherwise its time for some different answers, as the saying goes if you do things the same way you will get the same results.

Excuses now. You said ALL. Canberra Stadium and Parra Stadium are all seaters with modern facilities - only the size differs between them and the ones you mentioned!

 

[Perth Red]

you think Canberra/Parra and SFS/Suncorp/Stad Australia offer the same facilities for fans? There's a lot more to a modern stadium than being all seater. A roof over your head for starters!

The point stands re Manly that they were a winning team all season and looked like genuine contenders for most of it. If your not going to get behind your team and turn out for them when they win 18 out of 24 games and finish 2nd then when are you? Fact is the state of Brookvale is playing a big part in poor crowds and poor finances for Manly.

 

[Loudstrat]

The roof over the Thornett and Cronin stands are a sh*tload more effective than the one at the SFS you idiot!

And if a roof is oh so important (whats the difference between Parramatta and ANZ except for the scale and the postcode anyway?) please name the ground that doesnt have one.

 

[Scarves]

It's fantastic to hear the ghosts of the past speak from the grave. Reading Rockin Ronny is like watching a re run of "Return of the Living Dead".

The facts are that the Sunshine Coast has no top standard stadium, just like the Sea Eagles. the Sunshine Coast is also well spread, full of tourists and generally has about the same population as one will find on the Northern Beaches of Sydney. And that is if you only include Manly fans as people that live on Sydney's Northern Beaches.

The Sunshine Coast doesn't deserve a team more than the Northern Beaches, especially when you consider Manly are the current premiers, and like it or lump it... the most successful club since the demise of the unlimited tackle rule (the past 40 years). And to do this, to make the suggestion to move Manly up to the Sunshine Coast simply accomodate a ghoulishly dead zombie club like the North Sydney Bears who last had fleeting success when Grug fell out of the tree, albeit as a disfigured Central Coast based outfit with a fanciful yet eerie connection to Miller Street.... this Quidgy should get off the crack, or alternatively Quidgy should become the not so famous former top flight clubs "imagination mover".

The Bears are dead, they had their window for 90 years and squandered it, but most of these bitter belter zombie fans take no personal responsibility for their demise. Instead blaming Manly and wishing death to them, alas the Sea Eagles keep on winning premierships and we'll be here for many years to come. Let's leave the dead with the dead, they are there for a reason, it's God's way.

 

[Beowulf]

The Bears are dead, they had their window for 90 years and squandered it

Like Manly squandered their chance to claim the north shore and Central Coast over the past 11 years through incompetence and laziness?
Still, its helped ensure the CC Bears will return in 2014 (or 2013 if a side falls over), so we can all laugh at your troll post.

Your demise is self-inflicted - 11 years of begging bowls to the NRL for millions every year while the Bears gradually built up their warchest. Luckily for Manly, the Bears case will prove their inclusion will drag Manly out of the gutter again, if not morally, then financially (lifelines extended - 1947, 2000).

The wheel of life turns!

 

[Loudstrat]

If Manly relocate, it wont be to accommodate the bears. It will be for the same reason that Newtown, Wests ad Norths did - because their current area offered no future and their new one offered hope.

But a reality check is needed. Manly will not relocate. There is nowhere on the agenda (read Sunny Coast, Perth, Wellington or CQ) that can sustain a club better than the Northern Beaches.

Further to the reality check -
Newtown relocated because their 6 inner city industrial suburbs gave them nothing. Campbelltown offered a glimmer of hope, but they had to sell their Leagues club at Erskineville to avoid insolvency - and they couldn't.

Wests relocated (from memory) partly because of the groundwork Newtown put into Campbelltown, partly because the NSWRL were trying to punt them, and partly because Lidcombe was a dump and their leagues club at Ashfield was running on a shoestring and suffereing from not having the old "close to the ground" location to trade on matchday crowds.

Norths only relocated because the NRL brought in the draft when News Ltd wanted to cut the comp from 20 to 12 (eventually 14) - and all the Sydney clubs panicked. And the NRL told them that if they moved to Gosford they would be classed as a non Sydney club.

Arguably, without the court case of 1983 and the criteria and comp reduction of 1998, the only relocation ever would have been the last ditch effort by Newtown. And of course there would not have been any mergers.

So all this talk about relocation and mergers just because of some boardroom heat or a poor balance sheet is, quite simply, rubbish.

 

[Perth Red]

But a reality check is needed. Manly will not relocate.
.

Without winning the GF they would have lost $1.4mill this year despite reasonable crowds for them. As long as they pick up the Gf cheque very year your right they will be fine!

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/n...ncial-black-hole/story-e6frfgbo-1226158481902