Looking at our remaining draw (some people are going to call it 'soft') there is a good chance we can win the minor premiership from here.
We play (not in order):
- Raiders twice
- Sea Eagles twice
- Warriors twice
- Roosters (away)
- Sharks (at Penrith)
- Broncos (away)
- Titans (away)
- Knights (at Penrith)
- Storm (away)
I know these things are hard to predict, and it depends on injuries, form, etc, but based on how we are traveling right now and those other teams are traveling presently, you'd have to think we are a good chance of losing very few of those games.
You'd think we are a good chance of beating the Raiders, Sea Eagles and Warriors twice. A good chance of beating the Roosters, Titans and Knights. Sharks seem to be our bogey team, as are the Storm. Even if we lose to the Sharks and the Storm, and are affected by Origin and lose other matches, that only has us losing 4 more games for the rest of the season. That would mean finishing on 17 wins, with 7 losses.
Dragons have a pretty easy run based on the form of their opponents, so they will be the main risk it seems. They play:
- Dogs (twice)
- Eels (twice)
- Tigers (twice)
- Storm (away)
- Cowboys (away)
- Roosters (away)
- Warriors (at home)
- Sea Eagles (at home)
- Knights (away)
Unless the wheels fall off the Dragons, they might also only lose 4 of those games. Dogs have been a real bogey team for the Dragons the past few years (I saw some statistics yesterday and they have an incredibly poor record against the Dogs going back to 2014). Storm will be tough, Roosters should also be tough, and Tigers will put up a good fight. Cowboys will either have given up by the time they play them or will be fighting hard for a top 8 spot.