We will fight them on the couches: league outrates AFL for first time
ROY MASTERS
December 22, 2009
While officials squabble and threaten to divide rugby league, the fans have delivered an early Christmas present: TV ratings have eclipsed AFL nationally for the first time. This year, rugby league had an aggregate audience of 128.5 million compared with AFL's 124.3 million.
The figures are revealed in an NRL-commissioned study shown to the club CEOs earlier this month, Admittedly, it's not an apples-with-apples comparison: league figures include Origin and rep games (12,024,381 viewers) and the under-20s Toyota Cup competition (3,450,252), which AFL does not have, although the AFL figures include the pre-season NAB Cup (7,642,000).
In terms of a straight comparison between the aggregate TV audience of the eight games each week in each code on both free-to-air and pay TV, the AFL wins 116,612,478 to the NRL's 112,980,474, an impressive result considering the AFL season is shorter by two weeks. However, AFL has four games on free-to-air TV (99,087,689) compared with the NRL's three (83,149,231), an important factor considering 99 per cent of Australian homes have free-to-air sets, while only 33 per cent of homes subscribe to pay TV where five NRL games are shown to the AFL's three.
Rugby league, therefore, wins the pay TV comparison, with 32.7m viewers to AFL's 17.5m, despite being paid less by Foxtel.
Significantly, the NRL's ratings are on the rise while AFL's are falling. A comparison of national ratings for the respective premierships of the two codes between 2008 and 2009 shows NRL improving by 6.2 per cent and AFL falling by 4.3 per cent.
This reflects the ''any given Sunday'' expectation in the NRL, in which a bottom-ranked team can defeat a top club, meaning all games are competitive, compared with the AFL, in which Richmond, Melbourne and even Fremantle are occasional easybeats.
The mini trend also questions the AFL's expansion into the Gold Coast and western Sydney, bringing to five the number of teams which might not be competitive over the next decade. By contrast, the NRL has rejected expansion, seeking to capitalise on its rising numbers.
The AFL justifies its move to the Gold Coast and western Sydney because the two northern states generate 60 per cent of advertising dollars on TV, but this might not translate to rights fees if ratings are poor.
The AFL's strength is it is a truly national game, reflected in five capital-city audience numbers, while rugby league's strength is the loyalty of regional viewers.
On a five-capital-city comparison, AFL wins 77m to rugby league's 58.3m, while the AFL's regional aggregate audience is 22.1m to rugby league's 36.7m.
This raises the possibility of a new independent commission running rugby league instructing chief executive David Gallop to sell games direct to regional networks, such as WIN and Prime.
Sydney, often accused of lethargy in supporting rugby league with crowd and audience numbers, has had a lift in its ratings by 12 per cent on 2008, while Brisbane also boasts an impressive 13.5 per cent rise.
Channel Nine's policy of flipping Friday night games, putting a Sydney game on in prime time in the south and a Queensland game in the north, and reversing them at 9.30pm, has improved numbers, together with the Titans' impressive 2009 season.
Gallop said: ''The numbers are testimony to our pursuit of a close competition. The value of an additional team in South-East Queensland has given us the ability to flip-flop the Friday night game, while the freakish skills of our players has also driven the ratings rise. We can't wait to get to the negotiating table because a lucrative TV deal will surely be just compensation for these numbers.''
Melbourne has increased its NRL audience by 4.4 per cent, not surprising given the Storm's stellar play but a shock to all those Victorian fans who have to endure Channel Nine's cruel treatment.
Channel Nine Melbourne endemically insists on programming NRL at hours when only insomniacs abound, and cannot reach agreement with Fox Sports to release the Friday night games shown in Sydney and Brisbane to pay TV, in the same way AFL is shown in the north on Foxtel.
While rugby league's Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne figures are up and regionals constant, the AFL has suffered a worrying fall in Sydney and a dip in Brisbane, the metropolitan areas where they are seeking to build support with new teams. Sydney's numbers have dropped a massive 19.5 per cent, Brisbane's 1.5 per cent, and regionals are down 13.4 per cent.
With the Swans in a transition period during which their stars have retired and they are unable to access top draft choices, Sydney's audience is expected to decline further.
A comparison of 2009 aggregate premiership ratings, by city, for the two codes, shows the loyalty of Melbourne to AFL. Melbourne had 38,125,568 AFL viewers to Sydney's 28,095,299 NRL viewers, a gap of 10 million despite Sydney's population being one million more.
While this reflects the status of AFL in Melbourne, a code equivalent to a secular religion, it also demonstrates the divide in Sydney with the two rugby codes. That should be a sobering thought to the lunatics seeking to further divide rugby league.
