The owners own the arenas. There isn't a spare 20k stadium in every city.
There just isn't another 30 billionaires laying around waiting to pour money into Basketball.
Some players are smart enough to invest their money, but it's depressing to know just how many live pay check to pay check. They don't have the money themselves to start their own league.
And also the owners have exclusive contracts with the networks. And the networks are still paying them, basketball or no basketball.
And the owners say 22 of the teams lose money, that's probably exaggerating but say half the teams, or 15, really do lose money year to year. That's 15 owners who essentially profit from cancelled games. They won't be in a hurry to make a deal.
The hardline minority is growing. If in the next couple weeks the owners say "ok new deal, the best we're going to give you is 47%", will you then be convinced of their ability to outlast the players?
And Billups is willing to throwaway a year? Ok. Even if you ignore the possibility that he's posturing, maybe he is one of the few who invests his money and doesn't spend it like an ATM. But I do not believe that more than 50% of players have the ability to go 12 months without any money coming in.
If nothing happens in the negotiations coming up in the next week, expect December games to be cancelled. Expect a new offer of 47% to the players.
If the players don't agree the whole season will go pretty soon, the owners won't talk until May next year and it'll only be to offer 44%.
Don't get me wrong. I'm on the players side. They've already given more than they should need to give. The owners are being selfish, they are not negotiating in good faith. In a perfect world none of this would be happening. But it's not a perfect world.
The owners will win, it just depends on when they'll win and by how much they'll win.
