New Zealand 2 will deal a massive blow to NZ rugby

[Iamback]

If you were serious about bringing in a second Kiwi side you need a lot more investment and to do it properly you need a good lead in time. Simply because the potential market is smaller - your options are really Wellington or Christchurch and they are not big places.

A second side probably would have had a better chance of success about 10 or so years ago when the under 20’s were still a thing.

All of the options for team 18 are in that same boat. NZ and the PI are the untapped resource for the game

 

[Te Kaha]

All of the options for team 18 are in that same boat. NZ and the PI are the untapped resource for the game

Except NZ already has a team in, by far, the biggest League marketplace and player base in the country. So hardly an "untapped resource."

 

[Iamback]

Except NZ already has a team in, by far, the biggest League marketplace and player base in the country. So hardly an "untapped resource."

2019 Tonga beat Australia

2020
2021
2022

Warriors were in Australia with zero development happening due to borders being shut.

Samoa has just come of a World Cup final

Warriors are running U19's and NSW Cup sides, Where do you think the extra players needed will come from?

 

[Te Kaha]

2019 Tonga beat Australia

2020
2021
2022

Warriors were in Australia with zero development happening due to borders being shut.

Samoa has just come of a World Cup final

Warriors are running U19's and NSW Cup sides, Where do you think the extra players needed will come from?

Which is what i have been saying all along. There needs to be tens, if not hundreds, of millions spent on junior development, coaching and pathways created before a second team becomes viable.
And have a look at which NZ city most of the NZ born\raised Tongan and Samoan players came from. The one that already has an underperforming team.

 

[Matua]

2019 Tonga beat Australia

2020
2021
2022

Warriors were in Australia with zero development happening due to borders being shut.

Samoa has just come of a World Cup final

Warriors are running U19's and NSW Cup sides, Where do you think the extra players needed will come from?

What is the point of the bold? Not for a shitfight, I'm genuinely unsure of your point here.

 

[Iamback]

Which is what i have been saying all along. There needs to be tens, if not hundreds, of millions spent on junior development, coaching and pathways created before a second team becomes viable.
And have a look at which NZ city most of the NZ born\raised Tongan and Samoan players came from. The one that already has an underperforming team.

That is what it takes to run an NRL team anyway.

This year Warriors will be taking on 30 more juniors then they did last year. They do that for a few seasons and there is 100 more schoolboy aged kids that have tried the game

Penrith has signed a gun schoolboy

Dogs have a few so it is happening elsewhere but it would be good if those guys can stay over and lift the local standard

 

[Iamback]

What is the point of the bold? Not for a shitfight, I'm genuinely unsure of your point here.

You don't think performances like that gets interest up? Hell people may not even know RL is an option for those islands.

My point is someone who was 15-16 back then who might of been interested in the game as a result. Lost their local pathway so would likely stick with Rugby.

That is the age group when players who have talents in multiple sports need to make a choice

 

[Matua]

You don't think performances like that gets interest up? Hell people may not even know RL is an option for those islands.

My point is someone who was 15-16 back then who might of been interested in the game as a result. Lost their local pathway so would likely stick with Rugby.

That is the age group when players who have talents in multiple sports need to make a choice

Most PI's are already interested in league. But I thought this discussion was on NZ getting an expansion team? Wherever the new team goes it needs to win over all NZers, not just PIs, to be sustainable.

The waning interest in league in NZ predated Covid (in the NZ forum there's a thread on this), even if Covid made it worse. I have no faith in the Warriors even with the increased numbers of juniors. Also you stated "more kids who have tried the game", that's not really true, most of the Warriors juniors will be long term players, there wont be many newcomers to the league (in most cases they likely will have played both sports).

On schoolboys, for the ones who don't get scholarshipped over the Oz, I've always said the Warriors are better off leaving them in the 1st XV comps than getting them to solely focus on league. Especially if they're in the Auckland 1A or Super 8, as they'll get the work ethic and professionalism there that the Warriors seem unable to provide.

 

[Iamback]

Most PI's are already interested in league. But I thought this discussion was on NZ getting an expansion team? Wherever the new team goes it needs to win over all NZers, not just PIs, to be sustainable.

The waning interest in league in NZ predated Covid (in the NZ forum there's a thread on this), even if Covid made it worse. I have no faith in the Warriors even with the increased numbers of juniors. Also you stated "more kids who have tried the game", that's not really true, most of the Warriors juniors will be long term players, there wont be many newcomers to the league (in most cases they likely will have played both sports).

On schoolboys, for the ones who don't get scholarshipped over the Oz, I've always said the Warriors are better off leaving them in the 1st XV comps than getting them to solely focus on league. Especially if they're in the Auckland 1A or Super 8, as they'll get the work ethic and professionalism there that the Warriors seem unable to provide.

The 2 go together, Team 18 will be a new market and will need pathways.

Warriors had their best run in NRL while NYC ran so it can be done, I just think too many teams take the easy way out. Try and buy success. This linking with Moari League whilist running 2nd tier and SG Ball comp is much better, provided they stick to it

I can't see Warriors running too many part timers. So you will have 18 year olds playing against men in televised games.

The better ones will get picked up by someone hopefully the Warriors. Even those not in the game day squads will get professional training and go back to a local grade.

That 2 strengthens those comps. Do that for a few seasons and there is a stronger base to add another team.

Which is kind of where it sits now of building up an area to be in a position to become a new team, That then throws another few million into the Development pot

 

[Wb1234]

Then why don't they? Barely any players have switched to league in the last few years. They're just not doing it. Less NZR juniors are going to league now than during the Holden Cup years.

You might not like rugby, you may think it's a boring game, but the kids playing the game in NZ do. Lots like and play league too, as we generally don't have your us/them mentality, but the lure of the ABs is bloody strong. You may think playing for the Bulldogs, Storm, Warriors, Cowboys is the greatest thing ever but it's not to young NZers.


Seriously mate, you need to grow up if you think that providing facts about the game in NZ while at the same time liking rugby means someone hates league. I love league (I hate origin though), played it every Sunday for most of my childhood/teenage years. I discuss it with people on here because they're talking rubbish and burying their heads in the sand.

I want league to be successful in NZ because I don't see it as a zero sum game. League and rugby can exist side by side. But let’s be real here league is in the doldrums in NZ. I'd be happy for NZ to get another team, especially if they operate as a NZ team unlike the Warriors, but that's not going to cause the death of rugby in NZ which posters on here seem to think it will.

Deleted

 

[Wb1234]

Vlandys is making a huge mistake adding Perth next over nz

a Perth nrl team will have minimal impact on afl

a second nz nrl side willl have a major impact on a severely weakened rugby union

but even without a second team the nrl salary cap will soon be 15 million dollars and with two new clubs desperate for talent and the union World Cup over the time will be ripe for large scale raids

 

[mongoose]

Vlandys is making a huge mistake adding Perth next over nz

a Perth nrl team will have minimal impact on afl

a second nz nrl side willl have a major impact on a severely weakened rugby union

but even without a second team the nrl salary cap will soon be 15 million dollars and with two new clubs desperate for talent and the union World Cup over the time will be ripe for large scale raids

a Perth NRL team doesn't need to have "impact on AFL". It just needs to pull in more revenue, grow the sport in WA, add new TV timeslot. Seriously, it's not a game of Risk.

 

[Te Kaha]

Vlandys is making a huge mistake adding Perth next over nz

a Perth nrl team will have minimal impact on afl

a second nz nrl side willl have a major impact on a severely weakened rugby union

but even without a second team the nrl salary cap will soon be 15 million dollars and with two new clubs desperate for talent and the union World Cup over the time will be ripe for large scale raids

Why do people always make the mistake of thinking an increase in salary cap will allow for "increased raids"? Most, if not all of any Salary cap increases will go on existing players. The self interest of the players over the next couple of years will ensure that is written into any new contract.
No club will be overs for someone who has never played the game.

 

[Iamback]

a Perth NRL team doesn't need to have "impact on AFL". It just needs to pull in more revenue, grow the sport in WA, add new TV timeslot. Seriously, it's not a game of Risk.

Does it do that if it struggles? Particular with very limited pathways

 

[Colk]

The 2 go together, Team 18 will be a new market and will need pathways.

Warriors had their best run in NRL while NYC ran so it can be done, I just think too many teams take the easy way out. Try and buy success. This linking with Moari League whilist running 2nd tier and SG Ball comp is much better, provided they stick to it

I can't see Warriors running too many part timers. So you will have 18 year olds playing against men in televised games.

The better ones will get picked up by someone hopefully the Warriors. Even those not in the game day squads will get professional training and go back to a local grade.

That 2 strengthens those comps. Do that for a few seasons and there is a stronger base to add another team.

Which is kind of where it sits now of building up an area to be in a position to become a new team, That then throws another few million into the Development pot

Yeah but this is the problem: none of these gun Kiwi juniors are playing for the Warriors.

I totally get the argument regarding junior numbers but at this point in time none of this kids are staying in NZ, so the idea that you put another side there and it will be all hunky dory is a little naive. You have to work out why this is happening first before you consider putting another side there - who knows it might not be just a Warriors thing.

If we are looking at an additional side, player numbers or whatever is just one aspect.

We have to look at multiple things here: can the side sustain itself financially through sponsorship etc? Will the area be able to attract players? Who is running the bid? What will broadcasters pay more for?

Now I would love another Kiwi side and I think it should happen (the rivalry could be great for example and if they or the Warriors gain success it would be huge for NZRL) however, if you were to look at things soberly you would suggest financials, attracting players and broadcaster revenue would be harder to achieve a positive result (PNG or Pacific Islands impossible) when compared to Australian options (Perth or another Brisbane side etc).

 

[Colk]

Does it do that if it struggles? Particular with very limited pathways

To be fair any expansion team or team in general will essentially struggle/succeed on the back of their results. Why do you think for example the Warriors or Gold Coast are routinely the least viewed teams - they have either had no success or haven’t had success for a very long time.

Also, I think money, good administration and good scouting is more important than pathways in any case. Compare the junior areas of Newcastle and Gold Coast to that of Melbourne and the Roosters and it hasn’t hindered the last two.

 

[Wb1234]

a Perth NRL team doesn't need to have "impact on AFL". It just needs to pull in more revenue, grow the sport in WA, add new TV timeslot. Seriously, it's not a game of Risk.

Perth for team 20

nz2 does more for rugby league now

 

[Iamback]

Yeah but this is the problem: none of these gun Kiwi juniors are playing for the Warriors.

I totally get the argument regarding junior numbers but at this point in time none of this kids are staying in NZ, so the idea that you put another side there and it will be all hunky dory is a little naive. You have to work out why this is happening first before you consider putting another side there - who knows it might not be just a Warriors thing.

If we are looking at an additional side, player numbers or whatever is just one aspect.

We have to look at multiple things here: can the side sustain itself financially through sponsorship etc? Will the area be able to attract players? Who is running the bid? What will broadcasters pay more for?

Now I would love another Kiwi side and I think it should happen (the rivalry could be great for example and if they or the Warriors gain success it would be huge for NZRL) however, if you were to look at things soberly you would suggest financials, attracting players and broadcaster revenue would be harder to achieve a positive result (PNG or Pacific Islands impossible) when compared to Australian options (Perth or another Brisbane side etc).

Looking at your Questions any new bid will struggle with all of those.

The 9th game alone will make any new area viable. Especially one in a new timeslot so that cancels that out.

Team 18 won't be Brisbane. So the other options all will struggle to attract talent due to distance from family etc.

Should it go to NZ or PI, Australian corporates likely struggle to get onboard. Though if it is a side with international players then that could cancel out if revenue comes in from elsewhere.

Given as above no new market will attract top end talent. Where is best to develop talent is top of my list.

Warriors went from 36 players, They will now have over 60. Another side is more opportunities for those dual code playing schoolboys to get into NRL. While staying at home

 

[Iamback]

To be fair any expansion team or team in general will essentially struggle/succeed on the back of their results. Why do you think for example the Warriors or Gold Coast are routinely the least viewed teams - they have either had no success or haven’t had success for a very long time.

Also, I think money, good administration and good scouting is more important than pathways in any case. Compare the junior areas of Newcastle and Gold Coast to that of Melbourne and the Roosters and it hasn’t hindered the last two.

GC had success early on and dropped the ball with development.

Warriors were decent enough while NYC was running. Like GC dropped the ball.

Both those clubs have no juniors so have to develop from other areas. They are able to use elite junior comps for those players.

That same option NZ2 has. Ideally they link up with the Fiji team in Ron Massey Cup aswell to increase the player pool.

 

[siv]

Investment is worthwhile from a player talent pool return. How much is debatable. Nrl gets out around $25-30mill cash a year from nz. as of next season it will be investing around $17.5mill in nz.

That my issue for NZ2

Does the business case stack up?

Investing $35 mil in NZ will mean they will need $50 mil in NZ TV rights