New Zealand 2 will deal a massive blow to NZ rugby

[Wb1234]

People need to think of the salary cap as basically our GDP.

Just like countries with higher GDPs cause a brain-drain from countries with lower GDPs, over time the bigger the collective salary cap across 17-20 clubs, the more economic clout and the more non-league players will code hop.

Also countries gdp are finite

people don’t have unlimited money to spend on sports

nor are the unlimited sponsors

 

[docbrown]

No. NZR doesn’t even compete with NRL in revenue terms.

My point was that rugby in NZ is not wholly dependent on SR to generate income and survive.

If SR dies, the code won’t die because NPC or something else will replace it, and the All Blacks - who generate most of NZRs income - will still play test matches.

Agree again. I'd only add that with 2 teams that's 24 NRL games played in NZ at minimum. The All Blacks will play 6 to 8. With 3 teams it would be 36 NRL games. The more games, the more attention.

 

[docbrown]

Also countries gdp are finite

people don’t have unlimited money to spend on sports

nor are the unlimited sponsors

It's not really about people spending money on sports. It's about talent attraction.

I don't think the NRL is at maximum saturation for clubs or broadcasting. Maybe 20 years from now. But it's in a growth phase, so the salary cap will keep going up.

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

all blacks will all play their domestic rugby overseas

There are many that agree that situation is inevitable.

But they’d still be All Blacks, they’d still play test matches during the test windows, and those tests will continue to generate revenue in their own right, and preserve the brand value for NZRs major sponsors.

In fact financially, such a model would benefit NZR because the foreign clubs would be footing more of the wage bill. It’s the longer term impact on depth that would sting at some point.

 

[Wb1234]

There are many that agree that situation is inevitable.

But they’d still be All Blacks, they’d still play test matches during the test windows, and those tests will continue to generate revenue in their own right, and preserve the brand value for NZRs major sponsors.

In fact financially, such a model would benefit NZR because the foreign clubs would be footing more of the wage bill. It’s the longer term impact on depth that would sting at some point.

In that situation nrl would be dominant imo

 

[docbrown]

There are many that agree that situation is inevitable.

But they’d still be All Blacks, they’d still play test matches during the test windows, and those tests will continue to generate revenue in their own right, and preserve the brand value for NZRs major sponsors.

In fact financially, such a model would benefit NZR because the foreign clubs would be footing more of the wage bill. It’s the longer term impact on depth that would sting at some point.

Yes under that scenario the 17 & 18 year olds can either go play for less in the some poor version of today's Super Rugby or make more money in the NRL. If we maintain the competitive edge with French rugby so that the economic pull isn't a factor, then the NRL benefits simply because those kids can stay closer to home.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

French and Japanese RU are probably the biggest threat to Super Rugby in New Zealand.

 

[Dark Corner]

There are many that agree that situation is inevitable.

But they’d still be All Blacks, they’d still play test matches during the test windows, and those tests will continue to generate revenue in their own right, and preserve the brand value for NZRs major sponsors.

In fact financially, such a model would benefit NZR because the foreign clubs would be footing more of the wage bill. It’s the longer term impact on depth that would sting at some point.

So the All Blacks are playing 14 tests in 2004 with only 5 tests in New Zealand....thats not enough for home town fans to enjoy all year yet the Wahs have 14 home games including pre season...adding another NRL team in NZ is a no brainer.

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

So the All Blacks are playing 14 tests in 2004 with only 5 tests in New Zealand....thats not enough for home town fans to enjoy all year yet the Wahs have 14 home games including pre season...adding another NRL team in NZ is a no brainer.

Yep agree on both points; AB tests alone wont satisfy home fans, and NZ2 makes lots of sense.

My points were in relation to NZRs revenue only, of which the ABs are the biggest source. Which in turn means the demise of SR wouldnt be as terminal as might seem at face value.

 

[Dark Corner]

Yep agree on both points; AB tests alone wont satisfy home fans, and NZ2 makes lots of sense.

My points were in relation to NZRs revenue only, of which the ABs are the biggest source. Which in turn means the demise of SR wouldnt be as terminal as might seem at face value.

Do the AB'S get money from tests over sea's as I also thought the home nation gets it all ?

 

[Matiunz]

Npc competing with the nrl?

You continue the assumption that all NZ Union player will simply switch/be absorbed into an another sport should Super Rugby fail.
NZ doesn’t have the same reliance on Super Rugby that Aus does, it’s a very different dynamic.
1 is the NPC which has a very long history and prestige in NZ, 2 Being the International game and the pull that the All Blacks still have on NZ players, something the Kiwis simply don’t have- you still have league players converting for the sole career goal of making that team.
Obviously NPC cant compete financially with both the NRL and other international Union comps- however this is a challenge already faced.
If Super Rugby were to go away NRL is but one option available to current players but there are also a number of international Union club comps that NRL would still be competing with.

 

[Matiunz]

Do the AB'S get money from tests over sea's as I also thought the home nation gets it all ?

Not sure if it actually happened but a few years ago the ABs were asking a % of revenue for European tours in particular. It was proposed that they were the draw card in the increased crowd numbers at stadiums

 

[Dark Corner]

Not sure if it actually happened but a few years ago the ABs were asking a % of revenue for European tours in particular. It was proposed that they were the draw card in the increased crowd numbers at stadiums

They must get money from over seas games as the British Lions must make good money when they are touring.
I think I'm thinking of a team like Fiji not getting anything from Twickenham...?

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

They must get money from over seas games as the British Lions must make good money when they are touring.
I think I'm thinking of a team like Fiji not getting anything from Twickenham...?

Some of them yes.

For the games that are played during the established test windows, generally the host nation keeps the gate. Those are the ones NZR have long been trying to negotiate a cut of the gate from as @Matiunz mentioned.

But tests can also be scheduled outside of those windows specifically for revenue purposes and for those, NZR negotiates upfront.

As part of the 2021 EOY tour the ABs played two 'revenue' games against the US and Wales and from memory, NZR pocketed around 3mill for those.

 

[Wb1234]

You continue the assumption that all NZ Union player will simply switch/be absorbed into an another sport should Super Rugby fail.
NZ doesn’t have the same reliance on Super Rugby that Aus does, it’s a very different dynamic.
1 is the NPC which has a very long history and prestige in NZ, 2 Being the International game and the pull that the All Blacks still have on NZ players, something the Kiwis simply don’t have- you still have league players converting for the sole career goal of making that team.
Obviously NPC cant compete financially with both the NRL and other international Union comps- however this is a challenge already faced.
If Super Rugby were to go away NRL is but one option available to current players but there are also a number of international Union club comps that NRL would still be competing with.

Nrl will be the only rugby comp where they can stay at home and still earn the highest wages

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

Nrl will be the only rugby comp where they can stay at home and still earn the highest wages

Outside of the All Blacks, it already is. SR retainers top out at around 200k.

 

[Matua]

There are many that agree that situation is inevitable.

But they’d still be All Blacks, they’d still play test matches during the test windows, and those tests will continue to generate revenue in their own right, and preserve the brand value for NZRs major sponsors.

In fact financially, such a model would benefit NZR because the foreign clubs would be footing more of the wage bill. It’s the longer term impact on depth that would sting at some point.

If this ever happens then this dumpster fire of a thread will actually be correct, NZ rugby can't sustain itself if it's the Brazil of rugby. But, I doubt it will happen.

Although the ABs pull the big money NZ rugby is an ecosystem that feeds itself. With no domestic rugby Sky will be done as it's not going to keep subscribers for 12 AB matches and watching players all over the place in 4 or 5 overseas comps.

The revenue will be restricted tot he 5 or 6 home games a year for the ABs, and the ability to play shared gate tests outside of the test window will be gone. We'd become like the PI teams and struggle to get players released for matches.

We'd also start losing school players to French and Japanese academies as it will become better for their career prospects, unlike now where we have strong schools comps that feed our domestic game.

Not related to this post (but I can't be bothered creating a new post) but some recent posts discuss the financial strength of the NRl. As much as the NRL is financially massive the simple fact is NZ is a rugby country, a bumper 2023 for the Warriors doesn't change that. More teenage boys play rugby than all ages/genders play league in NZ. Outside of the Warriors the NRL is not a high rating comp in NZ. If say a tech giant like Amazon swooped in and bought up the NZ rugby rights then Sky would be done as a company.

 

[Matiunz]

Nrl will be the only rugby comp where they can stay at home and still earn the highest wages

Let’s hypothetically say the NRL went under, that wouldn’t mean all those players would automatically flock to union. Some players might but the majority would play NSW/QLD cup raising the standard or they go to ESL.

 

[Wb1234]

Let’s hypothetically say the NRL went under, that wouldn’t mean all those players would automatically flock to union. Some players might but the majority would play NSW/QLD cup raising the standard or they go to ESL.

They are already trying union afl and nfl now

money is a powerful incentive

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

money is a powerful incentive

Very, but its not all encompassing either.

I mean we see it within the NRL itself all the time. Hamlin-Uele took less to stay in the Shire, Wighton took less to leave Canberra, and Joey Manu would rather leave the country than play for the Dragons...