The dream of a second NRL team in New Zealand could be over.
The Weekend Herald understands the NRL has called a halt on its expansion plans, with a confidential letter sent to all existing bid projects on Thursday. The proposed Papua New Guinea team is still likely to go ahead – possibly in 2028 – but plans to bring in two more clubs – and lift the NRL to a 20-strong competition – have been put on ice.
In a statement to the Herald, the NRL said: ”At this stage, the bids submitted have not met the necessary threshold to be accepted.”
There had been genuine hopes that a Christchurch franchise could feature alongside the Warriors as an expansion team in the future, given the ongoing popularity of the sport, the amount of elite talent produced from this country, the size of the market and the new Te Kaha stadium, which is set to open in 2026.
That led to two rival bids – the South Island NRL Team bid and the South Island Kea, who had both garnered significant corporate and community support and made considerable progress. The first bid – with ex-Kiwis and Warriors coach
Frank Endacott as its president – was the frontrunner but they both appear to have reached the end of the road – at least for now.
Full details of the communication between the NRL and the various franchises this week are not available, with the NRL instructing all parties not to speak with media. But the Weekend Herald can confirm the presence of the letter, which arrived as a blow to the local consortiums.
According to several sources, the key points made in the letter and subsequent communications were:
The NRL is pausing any expansion planning at this stage (aside from Papua New Guinea).
The door is not completely shut.
There has been pressure from existing NRL clubs, who are concerned about dilution of the talent base and the effect on the overall share of broadcast revenue.
The NRL will reconsider its approach and criteria for expansion, with some support for a community-based model.
The NRL also wants to focus on strategies for growing the game and building numbers, not just on professional football.
The NRL had previously stated objectives to achieve a 20-team competition, split into two conferences, at some point during the next five-year broadcast deal, which will begin in 2027.
It’s understood that scenario could still be on the table but there are concerns about the overall business cases of each prospective bid, which has led to the re-evaluation.
The timing of the communication is curious, given the Kiwis and Kangaroos will play at a sold-out stadium in Christchurch on Sunday (6pm), part of a double-header with the Kiwi Ferns and Jillaroos. That’s off the back of consecutive Warriors’ sellouts in the Garden City, which illustrated the appetite for the game there.
Market research commissioned by both Christchurch bids shown that the popularity of the NRL has doubled in the South Island since 2022, mostly off the back of the Warriors’ resurgence. The success of the Kiwis and Kiwi Ferns in 2023 was also a contributing factor, while Christchurch and Dunedin would offer the only covered stadiums in the NRL.
Expansion has been a hot topic for years. After being granted a licence in 2021, The Dolphins became the 17th team last season and their introduction has been a huge success, especially with broadcast, revenue and attendance metrics, with the huge Brisbane market.
Papua New Guinea offer huge strategic importance, with the Australian government backing worth A$600 million over 10 years, including an A$60m licence fee. But that bid comes with significant logistical challenges and potential difficulties with attracting Australian or New Zealand players, though the long-term goal would be a team based on domestic talent. The Weekend Herald has been told the PNG bid was assessed as a “higher risk profile” compared with most of the others in an independent analysis commissioned by the NRL.
A Wellington bid was also on the table for a period, though that lagged behind the Christchurch bids on most metrics. A Perth bid had been favoured – with Western Australia seen as a key future market, with their stadia, large population and favourable time zone (from a broadcasters’ perspective).
But there are concerns about the lack of a local player base, a contributing factor in the demise of the Western Reds in the late 1990s. Their bid was supported by the North Sydney Bears, who are trying to revive their brand. A bid for a third Brisbane team has influential backers, given the size of the market in Queensland and the success of the Dolphins, off the back of the Broncos’ massive presence.
The NRL’s statement said expansion was “an exciting priority for the game”.
The commission have made it clear that any expansion must have a strong business case that delivers value for all stakeholders,” the statement said.
”We are working on the right plan and model for every region. New Zealand, Western Australia, Queensland and PNG are strategic, vibrant and growing rugby league regions.
”We continue to work to strengthen the case for any potential expansion.”
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