Non Footy Chat Thread II

[Hollywood Jesus]

Won't be a "Brenter" for Scotland, but a "Scexit" followed by a "Scenter".

As has already been posted, the major implication here (apart from whether Britain can forge ahead as a single economy) is that pressure now descends upon Germany to hold the EU together. France is probably gonna cop it more, now, too, as the EU's #2 country.

***

From our point of view, Andrew Robb should already be sounding out opposites from Labor and, if they were smart, they'd bail on the domestic election and be on a plane tomorrow.

The EU will not make easy trade deals with Britain and the US has already said that it will preference the EU before Britain. So, Britain is going to want trade deals, badly - we should be the first country in line to see what we can grab.

 

[Gronk]

Won't be a "Brenter" for Scotland, but a "Scexit" followed by a "Scenter".

As has already been posted, the major implication here (apart from whether Britain can forge ahead as a single economy) is that pressure now descends upon Germany to hold the EU together. France is probably gonna cop it more, now, too, as the EU's #2 country.

***

From our point of view, Andrew Robb should already be sounding out opposites from Labor and, if they were smart, they'd bail on the domestic election and be on a plane tomorrow.

The EU will not make easy trade deals with Britain and the US has already said that it will preference the EU before Britain. So, Britain is going to want trade deals, badly - we should be the first country in line to see what we can grab.

Trade with GB represents 3% of our market. Minnows compared to China South East Asia USA

 

[phantom eel]

From our point of view, Andrew Robb should already be sounding out opposites from Labor and, if they were smart, they'd bail on the domestic election and be on a plane tomorrow.

"Caretaker mode" prevents any major government decisions being taken between the moment an election is called, and when our (next) government is sworn in.

 

[phantom eel]

Can anyone answer this? I'm genuinely interested and have no idea myself.

I would say it is potentially bad for Britain/England, as their economy may not be sustainable without member access to the EU-free trade, plus the free migration from EU member states that tends to fill low demand but essential jobs in all parts of country, that welfare dependent unemployed British nationals (generally) tend to not want to be bothered to do?

They'd be ok outside the EU if there Britain were an economic powerhouse itself, but outside of the bigger cities - who ironically mostly voted to remain, except for Birmingham - the eventual economic impact of this will be... .

 

[phantom eel]

Wow

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/david-cameron-announces-his-resignation---full-statement/

Cameron's retirement was expected given the result. He - and coincidently all of the living ex-Prime Ministers, from either side of politics - campaigned for the EU Remain vote.

The UK will now be controlled by the Right Wing of the Conservative Party... I suspect Scotland will want to leave the UK, and Northern Ireland might even seek to leave the UK in favour of unification with its EU member neighbour the Republic of Ireland?

Eventually positive a few years down the track... if the shit hits the fan, the UK (or Engaldn and Wales, if that's all that is left) might swing behind a progressive like Labor's Jeremy Corbyn, if it's a contest between an incumbent extreme right wing government and a clear alternative.

 

[phantom eel]

And Hayne will return to Parra.





Shit wrong thread.

Or wrong shit thread, perhaps? ;-)

 

[Kornstar]

Can anyone answer this? I'm genuinely interested and have no idea myself.

Depends if we are being PC or not I guess.

 

[phantom eel]

Depends if we are being PC or not I guess.

Do you happen to be anti-immigration yourself, Korny?

 

[ash411]

Can anyone answer this? I'm genuinely interested and have no idea myself.

It's very much dependent on what happens next.

If the UK can secure good trade deals, then maybe they'll be ok.

Many parts of rural England was getting a lot of financial support from the EU, which surprised me when a lot of these regions voted to leave.

It's all up in the air right now, now they're going to have a change of government on top of this, and my guess would be that the torys (conservative party) will probably elect a stronger more hard line leader, and may try to strong arm the EU, which will fail. The EU is much larger than the UK, so it has all the leverage.

The other thing to factor in, is what happens to the EU from here, if the dominoes start to fall as they are being predicted, the EU itself could crumble, with more and more countries leaving as it becomes far less of an advantage to stay (mostly the larger economies like France & Germany, who will now be carrying a larger portion of the burden). If the EU fails, everyone goes back to their own economies, their own currencies, the European currency markets will become much more volatile, and we could see a lot of countries going broke. We've already seen evidence of this with the Pound tanking today, how quickly it rebounds (if it does) will tell us more about how that will play out across Europe. If you're planning on buying stocks in UK businesses, prepare to hang on to them for a while.

More than likely if Germany & France were to leave, they would do just fine, Germany has a really strong economy, and France does ok for itself.

The UK though, could be in trouble, as I said, it really depends on what they do now. If they lose Scotland and Northern Ireland, it will hurt, however the reduced stress they will feel on public programs (like the NHS, for example, which is really hurting right now) might actually be a good thing, but it will be difficult for people trying to find work, while they're in the EU if you're a teacher, let's say, it's very easy to find work. There's always an EU country screaming out for qualified people for all sorts of skilled and professional positions, so a lot of UK citizens have been getting work in Europe very easily, that all stops now, there will be visa applications required, and just general pain for all. The EU won't make it easy for UK citizens to travel & work in Europe.

I'm sure in the long run they'll be ok, but they're going to hurt in the short term.

We're also talking at least 2 years before they can fully exit the EU, there will be negotiations going on forever to sort everything out before they exit.

 

[Noise]

Cheers Ash.

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

Trade with GB represents 3% of our market. Minnows compared to China South East Asia USA

True enough, but not relevant. Britain are good for the squeezing, right now, so whether you squeeze 3% or 30%, a squeeze is a squeeze.

"Caretaker mode" prevents any major government decisions being taken between the moment an election is called, and when our (next) government is sworn in.

Which is why Robb takes an opposite. Nothing gets done until the next parliament is sworn in, but by then the groundwork could have been laid.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Not convinced HJ.

 

[Gronk]

HJ for PM. :thumn

 

[Twizzle]

Dont give him ideas.

 

[Gary Gutful]

The beard to be feared.

 

[Gronk]

Damn straight we haven't had a decent bearded politician since Yasser Arafat, Ayatollah Khomeini and Fidel Castro.

 

[Gronk]

Well, as I'm about to pre-pay STG4000 in rent, I'm pretty bloody happy with it (from a short-term selfish POV).

I shifted some coin into GBP last night, just after it bounced back a bit from a 20 year low.

Heaps better than when I was last in London many moons ago. IIRC I was at a Ashes test at the SCG around that time and the Barmy Army were signing "We got $3 to the pound, we got $3 to the pound.." to the tune of "he's got the whole world in his hands".

 

[Gary Gutful]

That's very imaginative.

 

[Kornstar]

Do you happen to be anti-immigration yourself, Korny?

f**k no! However there is a particular region that I wouldn't let near my country that we aren't allowed to say without being called racist.

However their lack of assimilation has caused issues all over the world and is well documented. I have no idea why it gets so much support from politicians and sympathisers.

Immigration (legal) has been amazing for this country up until we decided to let that region in and now I fear for my daughters future. I just haven't seen what value they add other than crying victim every chance they get. Their culture doesn't appear to have any endearing qualities that I have ever seen.

Greeks, Italians, Maltese, Asians have not bought the aggression and sense of entitlement that I have seen from this region. I lived it, I know people who still live it. My opinion, as unpopular as it is because we are not allowed to speak against it without retaliation (which I will probably get much of after this post), is that the world has f**ked up in a big way and there is no turning back now and it is going to be interesting to see where it goes.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

You can't ban all Canadians Korny.