As I live in the area and am involved with a junior club i nthe area I can tell you exactly whats happened. Almost all over 30 who remember the Bears wouldn't follow another team - they have become casual RL watchers at best of State of origin, finals etc, but have switched most focus to Swans and Waratahs. Bring the Bears back, this changes overnight.
This is translating to their kids - with no local NRL team representing the district, and no parents passionate about the game, there is no connection and less and less kids follow league also. Of those who do, allegiances are split on the lower north shore between mainly Souths, Roosters, Parramatta, St George, Tigers, Manly. In pretty close to that order, too, but NRL jerseys are rarely sighted these days around here. It all depends on which team is having a run of success - so last few years, more St George and Manly than would otherwise be the case. When their eras end, their support will fall.
There is a cultural divide and an access issue to Brookvale that precludes support for the Sea Eagles...they will never be the 'natural' team to follow, just one of a selection of peripheral options. Parents will be more inclined to take kids to a venue they can easily access and watch in comfort - currently none. A lot of the cultural divide is due to the Sea Eagles seige mentality "you hate us and we hate you'. So if you don't live on the peninsula, it means Manly hates you, so hardly an endearing enticement for undecided fans (or sponsors)!
David Gallop is fully aware of the lack of traction Manly have on the north shore and northern beaches - he has said as much himself with comments about the attraction of a team with a home ground that can be easily accessed via the north shore-Gosford rail link, and the attraction in reconnecting with all Bears fans lost to the game (over 40K in his words).
Brookvale is poorly located to cater for anywhere except the peninsula - surely no one can deny that, and because of this, they will always struggle financially and be unable to service there own area adequately, let alone northern Sydney and the Central Coast. I see Manly junior numbers are falling also, despite successful times. Every dollar (and more than they have) goes into the NRL squad, not grassroots or junior/other rep teams.
If you only had 1 team to fill northern Sydney and Central Coast, you'd locate it at Hornsby (or maybe Chatswood or Gosford). The last place you'd locate it is halfway up the peninsula which no one can access through sufficient capacity public transport except if you live on Pittwater Rd or access via ferry/bus from Circular Quay or express bus from the CBD.
Since we're stuck with Brookvale for one team, another team is needed to cover outside the peninsula, IF IT CAN PROVE IT WILL HELP, NOT HINDER. That's the challenge for the Bears bid team. Once you understand the mass transport system requirements and networks, its pretty straightforward!
