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Nrl Betting

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
Think there's value in the Dogs ML so I'll be on that tonight.

It's rough but it's worth a play.
Would have been a nice result had they finished off that last set.

At least they covered the spread.
 

Jimmy Rustles

Juniors
Messages
36
Buying that many points is always risky, still over 2 key numbers in 2 and 4, it's poor value and often goes awry. I won't even play h2h markets at 1.50. 1.70 is about the lowest I'll play on a h2h or PYOL with the lowest number that likely covers on a su win.

I don't think I'll be buying any points off double digit spreads in a hurry again.

Better luck over the weekend chaps. :thumn
 

Rod

Bench
Messages
3,752
Yeah thing with bet365 is they are a rec book, if you bet large/max stakes and regularly win they will limit/exclude you fairly quick. Especially if you sign up and hit a nice streak max betting straight away. Many places do it. Lots of good options though and the 100% signup bonus is worth rolling over. If you don't go too large, few hundred max a game you can fly under their risk management radar. I mostly use them for hail mary multi's & combos in case I sweep a batch of events over a day/weekend. Which I realise I'll be paid out and probably no longer welcome if I get lucky on a huge win.

For large bets, best place is pinnacle sports but no semi-correlated parlays and doubles, just ml's, spreads, totals and margin bets for league. You can max bet an event, wait for the line to move and max bet again. No limiting or booting out winners.

Anyone here use Centrebet?

I was enjoying them for a while, but went on a good run and they limited me right down which I think is pretty bullshit. From the post above though, this sounds like a pretty common practice, which I didn't realise.
 

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
Under 41 on tonight's game.

Slippery conditions, Ricky Stuart defensive sides with stunted attacks, Potter's increased defensive focus to Wests.
 

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
Anyone here use Centrebet?

I was enjoying them for a while, but went on a good run and they limited me right down which I think is pretty bullshit. From the post above though, this sounds like a pretty common practice, which I didn't realise.
Sportingbet/Centrebet are garbage.

But if you're just betting on the NRL ring them up, they'll probably take the bets.

If you're betting on Scandinavian handball you're f**ked, they won't want that action.
 

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
Under 41 on tonight's game.

Slippery conditions, Ricky Stuart defensive sides with stunted attacks, Potter's increased defensive focus to Wests.
Sanderp, f**k that little non-tackling merkin.
 

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
Under 41 on tonight's game.

Slippery conditions, Ricky Stuart defensive sides with stunted attacks, Potter's increased defensive focus to Wests.
Wrong.

Over zealous refs didn't help things, not enough chance to get into the grind.

Weather was better than I was expecting as well.
 

Jimmy Rustles

Juniors
Messages
36
Anyone here use Centrebet?

I was enjoying them for a while, but went on a good run and they limited me right down which I think is pretty bullshit. From the post above though, this sounds like a pretty common practice, which I didn't realise.

Most of the Aussie books do this, centrebet/sportingbet are the same company as WYD implied, then sportsbet and the other paddypower brands will only cater to rec bettors betting at most a few hundred a game, unless they are longterm losers. I have accounts on all but they are the last books I keep funded and use, I keep a little in sportsbet so the NBA streams work but mostly just use for tipping and the comps unless I have a flutter on races, which is rare.

They also have things in their rules/nospam46 about max daily payouts for individual sport. For instance say you laid a multi of +evens markets, like underdogs, 1-12's - 13+ and won 500k, the daily payout for league may only be 50k, so even though the betting slip will process the bet without any warning you won't get the payout calculated, even if the games in the multi are over several days, there's wording that the daily payout is based on when the last leg of the multi wins.

Sportsbet has a max daily payout of 10k on UFC - MMA, but will let you max bet a multi the slip calculates into 6/7 figures. It's dodgy as.

Good thing with TAB is you can go into a bricks and mortar, bet cash, cash a ticket on the spot, never being worried about only being able to bet $2-$10 because you had a good streak and won too much but the odds are crap. I'd rather not bet than use TAB.

If you're serious about online sportsbetting and mostly play single bets for ml's, spreads and totals, get a pinnacle account, no bonuses, promotions or anything, just the best lines/odds. No funny business or cracking the shits if you win too much. Their site isn't the most modern and parlay lines are juiced, site can go down in peak times for American sports but games are graded immediately and always correctly, there's never any reason to contact customer support aside verifying docs, they only absorb the fees on one withdrawal a month for bank transfers though. If you want to withdrawal often it will cost you like $35 a pop.
 
Messages
17,035
I wish i was that good at betting that an online betting agency would crack the shits at me winning too much.. f**ks me how you can even make money betting... f**k you melbourne storm.. merkins
 

Jimmy Rustles

Juniors
Messages
36
I blame the refs for the disallowed tries, although giving up that last try was weak. The books or refs didn't really want Melbourne to cover last night.

Keep your bet sizes in check, don't go crazy thinking you can retire from one game or round of footy. Don't play every game of the round, only a select few games you have a good gut feeling or situational angle on and grind away long term profit. It's not hard to win, it's easier to make dumb bets. Just have to really pick your spots, avoid double digit spreads and marginal games like tonight where either side winning and the total was a coinflip.
 

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
Most of the Aussie books do this, centrebet/sportingbet are the same company as WYD implied, then sportsbet and the other paddypower brands will only cater to rec bettors betting at most a few hundred a game, unless they are longterm losers. I have accounts on all but they are the last books I keep funded and use, I keep a little in sportsbet so the NBA streams work but mostly just use for tipping and the comps unless I have a flutter on races, which is rare.

They also have things in their rules/nospam46 about max daily payouts for individual sport. For instance say you laid a multi of +evens markets, like underdogs, 1-12's - 13+ and won 500k, the daily payout for league may only be 50k, so even though the betting slip will process the bet without any warning you won't get the payout calculated, even if the games in the multi are over several days, there's wording that the daily payout is based on when the last leg of the multi wins.

Sportsbet has a max daily payout of 10k on UFC - MMA, but will let you max bet a multi the slip calculates into 6/7 figures. It's dodgy as.

Good thing with TAB is you can go into a bricks and mortar, bet cash, cash a ticket on the spot, never being worried about only being able to bet $2-$10 because you had a good streak and won too much but the odds are crap. I'd rather not bet than use TAB.

If you're serious about online sportsbetting and mostly play single bets for ml's, spreads and totals, get a pinnacle account, no bonuses, promotions or anything, just the best lines/odds. No funny business or cracking the shits if you win too much. Their site isn't the most modern and parlay lines are juiced, site can go down in peak times for American sports but games are graded immediately and always correctly, there's never any reason to contact customer support aside verifying docs, they only absorb the fees on one withdrawal a month for bank transfers though. If you want to withdrawal often it will cost you like $35 a pop.
Some of the Asians books are also very good, particularly for soccer. SBOBet for example.
 

diggo

Juniors
Messages
149
Tatts is offering Manly 13+ @ $3.10 vs Tits, that seems pretty good value IMO

I'm already over-leveraged with Manly hd/hd @ $1.70, but I if I was going to recommend some line betting, I would take Manly (-4.5) @ $2.14 on betfair.. Much better value there.

That doesn't necessarilly mean I don't think they will win by 13+.. I think Manly's defense will strangle the Titans.. But you've got to look at it from a risk/reward point of view.
 

diggo

Juniors
Messages
149
Buying that many points is always risky, still over 2 key numbers in 2 and 4, it's poor value and often goes awry. I won't even play h2h markets at 1.50. 1.70 is about the lowest I'll play on a h2h or PYOL with the lowest number that likely covers on a su win.

I don't think I'll be buying any points off double digit spreads in a hurry again.

Better luck over the weekend chaps. :thumn

I think you have misconceived the meaning of "value". Associating any odds of $1.50 or less with "poor value" is simply wrong.. You had the right idea with the Melbourne bet.. We were just unlucky with some calls on thursday night.. If I had the chance I would do the same bet over and over again.
 

Jimmy Rustles

Juniors
Messages
36
I think you have misconceived the meaning of "value". Associating any odds of $1.50 or less with "poor value" is simply wrong.. You had the right idea with the Melbourne bet.. We were just unlucky with some calls on thursday night.. If I had the chance I would do the same bet over and over again.


The shorter the odds, the higher your winning percentage has to be. If you can cap over 75-80% on those odds then yeah, you can say they're good value win they win. When you've still got to cover key numbers it's extremely dangerous. It's the same on NFL. You can get probably away with it on moneylines or -1.5, but on -1.5 you're screwed on golden point.

At 1.50, betting 1 unit a game you go 3-2 you've bet 5 units for a return of 1.50 units. Say your unit sizes are 1k you've bet $5000 and gotten $4500 back. You have to consistently win more than 3 bets to every 1 loss to make it worthwhile. That's if you have a disciplined money management system, if you double up and chases losses you can end up in a hole very quick on a bad streak. By paying less juice the starting lines or buying a half point/point, you can get away with a 55-60% record ride out the variance and cruel beats/bizarre results and still profit.
 
Last edited:

Apey

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
28,284
Good to see I'm not the only one who lost out on Storm Dogs being closer than expected :lol:

I'm only a newb though so it was a very small bet. I chucked what I had left on a Storm & Souths multi @ 1.51 or something and I was shitting bricks in the last minute on Thursday night :lol:
 
Messages
17,035
Melbourne and now Manly have completely wiped my sportsbet account... Last time I ever bet on NRL. The only way to make any cash on it is just pure luck.
 

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