Rank the Brisbane bids

[greenBV4]

Back to the bids.

Who is the favourite ?

I think firehawks if they can convince another club or 2 to go with them

Or maybe a joint bombers / easts bid that would give you the corporate side of the bombers, and the grounded side of easts in one

 

[mongoose]

That's simply not true - channel 9 wants a team in Brisbane but doesn't care about Perth

I wouldn't listen to what Channel 9 wants. I would say their number 1 goal is to drive down the value of the broadcast rights.

 

[The Great Dane]

Don't expect these audiences to grow because they won't - Melbourne has has 21 years

It seems self evident to me that since the Storm entered the competition 20 years ago RL has grown exponentially in Melbourne, and I see no reason why it won't continue to grow in Melbourne.

 

[taipan]

That's conferences, not divisions. Divisions would be top thn then another comp with next best 10 clubs. Australia cant sustain a fully professional second division in any sport.
Conferences make more sense.

Re Melbourne audiences it really is chicken and egg. Not on main channel so cant get big audiences, dont have big audiences so arent put on main channel. The only way you could honestly answer the question for Melbourne, and Perth for that matter, would be to put NRL on the main channel for a sustained period of time and see if you can grow the audience. If we could get 80-100k for FTA games in each of those two cities it would push NRL ratings well above AFL, add more than a second Brisbane club would add and reclaim some lost ground in the TV battle with AFL.

Melbourne and Perth both have some record of being able to attract an audience for big NRL events when on main channel. Converting the 100k Perth viewers who tune into Origin or the 400k Melbournians who tuned into the Storm in the GF into regular NRl watchers should be a goal!

I have to also question the Ch9 want a second Brisbane team line. When the bloke who said it was in charge of Ch9 he did nothing to offer NRL money to get a second team, surely if it was that valuable to Ch9 they would hev been insisting on it in either of the last two TV deals?

Smith is stating two divisions, no mention of promotion and relegation, which is what your'e looking at.
The NRL under Gallop did not mention expanding into Brisbane after Gyngell stated a 2nd team's worth. Gyngell indicated the $20m referred to a Tv deal ATT.
NRL games are not for those states big NRL events. SOO is unique.
We can't convert the large numbers of Vic viewers and SOO has been going before the Storm came into being..

If we could crack 100k NRL viewers in Melbourne and ditto Perth ,that would be a hell of a base tpo work on.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

How much revenue 4 northern clubs make?

The Lions have a $13 million debt — roughly half of that borrowed from the AFL — with some believing the AFL should clear all club debt with its TV revenue windfall.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...al,all club debt with its TV revenue windfall.
​

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

I think firehawks if they can convince another club or 2 to go with them

Or maybe a joint bombers / easts bid that would give you the corporate side of the bombers, and the grounded side of easts in one

In an ideal world Easts and Wynnum would team up to control the eastern side of town.

East Coast Seagulls.

Sadly it will never happen

 

[The Great Dane]

He has a lot of contradictions in his thinking.
Needs a detailed review, then gives a list of priorities without any review
Bailouts must be a last resort, er yeh thats been the case forever
Expansion should all be about tv, then mentions NZ2, Melbourne2 and PNG, none if which would add significantly to the TV revenue
Two divisions? lol
Interesting opinion sbut Im not seeing much reality in them.

Expansion should A) be sustainable B) be viable C) grow the game. Only reason TV should have any say is in revenue increase, but we keep being told TV revenue is going down so maybe their opinions as a driver are becoming less relevant and we should prioritise the need for the game to grow into a national sport as main goal?

His biggest contradiction is that he'll say something like this-

With the real and present cautionary future of the AFL that has solidified its base in Sydney with the Swans, its overall financial muscle and long-term thinking building a similar position for western Sydney, Gold Coast and Brisbane, the AFL by 2035-40 could be the national football code.

This will push the NRL into a second-rung sport. It is a must for the NRL to have a comprehensive strategy that further strengthens and grows the sport on the eastern seaboard.

Basically the AFL's growing share in the national market is making it more appealing to potential business partners and fans then the NRL, but instead of trying to grow it's share of the national market by growing into markets where it has no presence, in other words trying to copy the AFL's success and taking the fight to the AFL at the same time, the NRL should focus all their time and effort on the east coast in markets where it's already got a presence and split it's fan base in those markets into smaller and smaller pieces.

It only makes sense if you are only concern is boosting broadcast deals in the short term instead of sustained long term growth, which is his problem; he's only thinking about what is best for maximising the value of the next broadcast deal and the one after that, not what's going to happen 20 or more years down the track.

 

[mongoose]

I understand what you're saying. I just don't agree with it because you're not providing any evidence to convince me it is right. All you're giving me is your opinion.

Do you have any evidence to support what you're saying?

Why would having teams in all five metro areas make a Lions vs Swans game worth more than a Broncos vs Cowboys game?

Roy Masters showed that the average viewership for the Lions in Brisbane metro is 40k on 7mate and are the least watched team around the country alongside the Suns out of the NRL AND AwFuL. Last year the Cowboys vs Broncos game drew 240k in that same area on Ch9. The Lions vs Swans game wouldn't even be televised on FTA outside of NSW and Queensland.

Now let's us scrutinise your theory even more. If Lions average 40k on 7mate in a metro area that has 2.5 million and, the Storm's highest audience in Melbourne metro last year was just 68,000 in an area that has 5 million, then AwFuL has won this battle hands down. Those 68,000 came in a game against the highest drawing sports team in the country in Rd 1 when no fumbleball was on. I'd hate to see what the Storm's ratings for the rest of the year were.

To further illustrate how far behind Melbourne RL is in popularity, an average of 66,000 more people in Brisbane metro tune in when the Broncos play compared to when no Queensland team is on. That right there proves Melbourne ain't worth shit to the game, as regional Queensland is very large, bigger than Brisbane in population, and draws a larger audience than Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide combined.

You reckon total amount of people matters more than where they're from. If you truly believe that then regional Queensland and NSW is larger than all of WA, SA and Tas combined. So, you add the ratings that Broncos, Bris 2, Bris 3 and Bris 4 would generate in Brisbane metro and Queensland regional and it will shit all over Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide.

Ask yourself this: if Adelaide and Perth are so important, why is AwFuL going so hard after Brisbane, Sydney, regional NSW and regional Queensland?

Because over half the population lives in Queensland and NSW and they aren't as centralised as the southern states.

Explain why RU gets good deals when its national footprint is no greater than ours and their game is far less popular?
I'll tell you why. The establishment view RU and fumbleball as games that are supported by the upper class and have a soft spot for them. They hate RL and view it as a working man's game, so they give us a wide berth for the most part. I've explained this to you before but you don't listen. If your theory about dots on maps held water then RU would be lucky to get The Reject Shop to sponsor their teams.

Here's your evidence, Melb is second from the left if you can't read it.

The Broncos are clearly the most watched team in the NRL. It might surprise people see who follows them: Melbourne, North Queensland and South Sydney. Most of the Sydney clubs sit mid-pack with the Raiders, Sea Eagles, Knights and Titans rounding out the bottom of the table.

Another chart also shows the Storm rate higher than average in both Sydney and Brisbane markets and obviously much higher than average in Melbourne.

https://pythagonrl.com/2020/04/06/e...-about-nrl-tv-ratings-but-were-afraid-to-ask/

Look, the Storm being so successful over the past 14 years would give them a bit of a boost I would imagine but you can't say they don't add any value. Their attendance has been in the top 4 or 5 for a number of years now, it's irrelevant that there is 5 million people in Melbourne. If Sydney clubs were getting averages of 25K+ then you could question the Storms crowds, but they aren't.

 

[The Great Dane]

Smith is stating two divisions, no mention of promotion and relegation, which is what your'e looking at.
The NRL under Gallop did not mention expanding into Brisbane after Gyngell stated a 2nd team's worth. Gyngell indicated the $20m referred to a Tv deal ATT.
NRL games are not for those states big NRL events. SOO is unique.
We can't convert the large numbers of Vic viewers and SOO has been going before the Storm came into being..

If we could crack 100k NRL viewers in Melbourne and ditto Perth ,that would be a hell of a base tpo work on.

The only way that's ever going to happen is with expansion and heavy investment into the grassroots in Vic and WA.

In other words, how the AFL did it in NSW, and how they are doing it in Queensland.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

That's conferences, not divisions. Divisions would be top thn then another comp with next best 10 clubs. Australia cant sustain a fully professional second division in any sport.
Conferences make more sense.

The 2 NFL conferences are broken down into divisions.

What you call them in England and what we call them here in Australia and America probably differ.

We have trucks, you have lorries.

Re Melbourne audiences it really is chicken and egg. Not on main channel so cant get big audiences, dont have big audiences so arent put on main channel. The only way you could honestly answer the question for Melbourne, and Perth for that matter, would be to put NRL on the main channel for a sustained period of time and see if you can grow the audience. If we could get 80-100k for FTA games in each of those two cities it would push NRL ratings well above AFL, add more than a second Brisbane club would add and reclaim some lost ground in the TV battle with AFL.

What you're rambling on about here is wishful thinking. You're never going to get those ratings from Perth, Adelaide or Melbourne, regardless of which channel RL ia broadcast on.

Lions average 40k on 7mate in Brisbane. I think Suns average 24k in the same market.

What makes you think the smaller markets of Perth and Adelaide are going to get 2 and a half times that number to watch an NRL team?

Melb Storm only average 25k in Melb metro.

Melbourne and Perth both have some record of being able to attract an audience for big NRL events when on main channel. Converting the 100k Perth viewers who tune into Origin or the 400k Melbournians who tuned into the Storm in the GF into regular NRl watchers should be a goal!

Origin isn't an NRL event. It is also the highest drawing RL event outside of the GF. If the premier event of Origin can only draw 100k in Perth, which is less than the 107k average for Brisbane when no Queensland team plays, what makes you think you can get that number for an NRL club?

I have to also question the Ch9 want a second Brisbane team line. When the bloke who said it was in charge of Ch9 he did nothing to offer NRL money to get a second team, surely if it was that valuable to Ch9 they would hev been insisting on it in either of the last two TV deals?

Has it occurred to you that the ARLC didn't want a second Brisbane team at the time?

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Here's your evidence, Melb is second from the left if you can't read it.

Another chart also shows the Storm rate higher than average in both Sydney and Brisbane markets and obviously much higher than average in Melbourne.

https://pythagonrl.com/2020/04/06/e...-about-nrl-tv-ratings-but-were-afraid-to-ask/

Look, the Storm being so successful over the past 14 years would give them a bit of a boost I would imagine but you can't say they don't add any value. Their attendance has been in the top 4 or 5 for a number of years now, it's irrelevant that there is 5 million people in Melbourne. If Sydney clubs were getting averages of 25K+ then you could question the Storms crowds, but they aren't.

That's not evidence. All it shows is the team that has been a run away success on the field for 22 years draws high ratings in RL's heartland areas of Queensland and NSW. Much of that would be down to the lack of a Bris 2, 3 and 4 for people in Brisbane who don't like the Broncos to get behind. Once you add Bris 2, 3 and 4 Melbourne will lose fans in Queensland. When Melbourne drop down the ladder they will no longer be a team people want to watch.

I will repeat that last year the biggest TV audience in Melbourne was 68,000 for the Rd 1 game vs the Broncos, who are the highest drawing team in the country. That proves most of the Storm's fans are in an under serviced heartland area and proof the club is an unmitigated disaster, relying on the RL states to keep them viable.

If you don't believe this then look at the ratings for the Lions, Suns, Swans and Giants. No one watches them outside of their areas because they have their own teams and few people from their own areas tune in. That's what will happen to the Storm once Brisbame 2, 3 and 4 are introduced.

I do note the irony of Cowboys being a much larger draw in Brisbane than the Storm and the 3rd overall in the country, despite being from a regional city of 150k. If Brisbanites will tune in to watch a QLD team that is further away from them than Sydney then you would be foolish to think Brisbane 3 and 4 wouldn't be just as successful. For a start they will provide Brisbane with many derbies each year that will rate through the roof and sell out Lang Park.

The beauty of the Cowboys is they havent been all that successful on the field, so their popularity is genuine. We know people in Brisbane will watch them regardless of their form. We don't know how many people will turn away when Melbourne drop down the ladder or when Brisbane 2, 3 and 4 are introduced to give non-Broncos fans a team of their own to support.

If you add Adelaide and Perth after Bris 2 then you cannot rely on consistent on-field results to make them popular in an under serviced heartland area like Queensland. For a start, how do you rig a competition to make 3 expansion clubs finish in the top 4 every year?

NRL have done it with the Storm to the angst of longterm fans. They won't be able to do it with 2 or 3 clubs. Not even AwFuL could do it with more than 1 club at a time.

"A Storm game doesn’t have a huge impact on ratings in Sydney but does add 25,000 FTA viewers and 17,000 PTV viewers from Victoria and another 10,000 viewers in Brisbane (4k FTA, 6.5k PTV). It’s likely that this impact is understated, given how rarely the NRL rates at all in Melbourne. While these numbers sound small in the grand scheme, assuming that those figures generally hold across all games, the Storm would go from having the second highest average on PTV to twelfth, and from second to fourth on FTA without their local audience.

In Brisbane, a small rise in FTA and a 15% jump in PTV ratings strongly suggests that the Storm are serving as a surrogate fourth Queensland team thanks to the well-documented exploits of the future Immortals that played in purple and in maroon."

https://pythagonrl.com/2020/04/06/e...-about-nrl-tv-ratings-but-were-afraid-to-ask/
​

So Melbourne metro adds a poultry 25k viewers to Storm games on FTA, compared to 40k for Lions games in Bris metro. Storm add similar amount to Cowboys and Titans in Brisbane metro, 50k and, Broncos add 66k. Storm add bugger all in NSW. Bris 2, 3 and 4 cannot come quick enough.

Thank you for proving Bris 2, 3 and 4 will be more valuable than Melb, Ade, Perth and Canberra.

 

[mongoose]

I provided evidence that the Storm rate highly nationally and therefor add more value to the broadcast deal than most other clubs. You tried to twist to suit your own argument but the data shows what it shows. Fact is you have no evidence that a 3rd of 4th Brisbane team will get high ratings, no evidence they will be well supported, no evidence that fans of other NRL clubs will jump ship to support them (which isn't a good thing) or that there are untapped populations of new people who will start watching NRL.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

I provided evidence that the Storm rate highly nationally and therefor add more value to the broadcast deal than most other clubs. You tried to twist to suit your own argument but the data shows what it shows. Fact is you have no evidence that a 3rd of 4th Brisbane team will get high ratings, no evidence they will be well supported, no evidence that fans of other NRL clubs will jump ship to support them (which isn't a good thing) or that there are untapped populations of new people who will start watching NRL.

The evidence said Melbourne have been adopted by Queenslanders as their fourth team because there's a void up here. That's why they rate well. Now you're trying to twist it around to make out the same thing will happen with Adelaide and Perth.

I showed you the ratings in Brisbane when Titans or Cowboys are playing, and they're not even from Brisbane.

Brisbane Ratings

Broncos 173k
Cowboys or Titans 157k
Everyone else 107k

If you're arguing that North Queensland and Gold Coast will draw better ratings in Brisbane than Brisbane 3 and 4 then you're living in a fantasy world and there's no hope for you.

You and The Great Dane are the biggest hypocrites on this board, supporting a team that draws some of the worst TV ratings nationally, according to the source you provided, yet here you are demanding that the NRL get rid of teams in Sydney that rate better than them and hostily demanding the NRL not introduce Brisbane 3 and 4 because you've both deluded yourselves into thinking that teams in Adelaide and Perth will create more viewers. You have no evidence that Perth and Adelaide will be a success, yet you arrogantly talk about their admission as if it will be the best thing since sliced bread, and like an ideologue, pretend that Brisbane 3 and 4 will not rate well in Brisbane. No one in the industry agrees with your crackpot theory, but the pair of you stick by it through thick and thin. It's insane.

 

[Pippen94]

I provided evidence that the Storm rate highly nationally and therefor add more value to the broadcast deal than most other clubs. You tried to twist to suit your own argument but the data shows what it shows. Fact is you have no evidence that a 3rd of 4th Brisbane team will get high ratings, no evidence they will be well supported, no evidence that fans of other NRL clubs will jump ship to support them (which isn't a good thing) or that there are untapped populations of new people who will start watching NRL.

You guys are clutching at straws; in 21 years Melbourne storm average less 20k per match in home city which is next to nothing - they have failed to build interest in code in Victoria. There's no other way to spin it.

 

[Pippen94]

His biggest contradiction is that he'll say something like this-
Basically the AFL's growing share in the national market is making it more appealing to potential business partners and fans then the NRL, but instead of trying to grow it's share of the national market by growing into markets where it has no presence, in other words trying to copy the AFL's success and taking the fight to the AFL at the same time, the NRL should focus all their time and effort on the east coast in markets where it's already got a presence and split it's fan base in those markets into smaller and smaller pieces.

It only makes sense if you are only concern is boosting broadcast deals in the short term instead of sustained long term growth, which is his problem; he's only thinking about what is best for maximising the value of the next broadcast deal and the one after that, not what's going to happen 20 or more years down the track.

No other sporting organization in the world is spending anywhere near the money propping up teams. GC have cost 250 million since inception the other club probably the same. Currently Swans & Lions are demanding extra funding.
NRL should not do this.

 

[Pippen94]

Here's your evidence, Melb is second from the left if you can't read it.

Another chart also shows the Storm rate higher than average in both Sydney and Brisbane markets and obviously much higher than average in Melbourne.

https://pythagonrl.com/2020/04/06/e...-about-nrl-tv-ratings-but-were-afraid-to-ask/

Look, the Storm being so successful over the past 14 years would give them a bit of a boost I would imagine but you can't say they don't add any value. Their attendance has been in the top 4 or 5 for a number of years now, it's irrelevant that there is 5 million people in Melbourne. If Sydney clubs were getting averages of 25K+ then you could question the Storms crowds, but they aren't.

So basically storm haven't created any new fans! Ratings in Melbourne negligible. Guess where those fans who are watching Storm are coming from!

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

You guys are clutching at straws; in 21 years Melbourne storm average less 20k per match in home city which is next to nothing - they have failed to build interest in code in Victoria. There's no other way to spin it.

Melbourne metro viewers for Storm matches are 25k. Crowds 18k. That's after 22 years of constant success. mongoose is now playing dumb, pretending that Storm haven't been adopted by Queenslanders as their 4th side, when the very source he cited says they have. He says he lives in Brisbane. He would know that a lot of people up here list the Storm as their team. He also knows the only reason Queenslanders have adoptedethe Storm is because the Broncos have sucked and a lot of people here hate the Broncos. Smith, Slater, Cronk, Folau and Inglis playing for them would have drawn Queenslanders upset with the Broncos to Storm.

 

[Pippen94]

It seems self evident to me that since the Storm entered the competition 20 years ago RL has grown exponentially in Melbourne, and I see no reason why it won't continue to grow in Melbourne.

Self evident means you don't have stats to back this up

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

So basically storm haven't created any new fans! Ratings in Melbourne negligible. Guess where those fans who are watching Storm are coming from!

150k of them come from Brisbane watching Ch9. Only 25k come from Melbourne. If mongoose thinks it will stay that way 10 years after Bris 2, 3 and 4 have established themselves he is dreaming. Slater, Smith and Cronk will be long retired and few Queenslanders will feel a connection to this club with teams of their own to support.

 

[Pippen94]

Melbourne metro viewers for Storm matches are 25k. Crowds 18k. That's after 22 years of constant success. mongoose is now playing dumb, pretending that Storm haven't been adopted by Queenslanders as their 4th side, when the very source he cited says they have. He says he lives in Brisbane. He would know that a lot of people up here list the Storm as their team. He also knows the only reason Queenslanders have adoptedethe Storm is because the Broncos have sucked and a lot of people here hate the Broncos. Smith, Slater, Cronk, Folau and Inglis playing for them would have drawn Queenslanders upset with the Broncos to Storm.

I think you are right - all NRL matches under 20k. Interesting afl does about the same - 29k - in sydney despite all money pumped into clubs.