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Recruitment - Newcastle's Version Of " Moneyball "

Karmawave

Bench
Messages
4,950
MONEYBALL: The Art Of Winning An Unfair Game is a brilliant book written by Michael Lewis about the General Manager of the Oakland Athletics baseball team and how the team used a highly modern unusual computer statistic method to find players who were cheap in value but high on return for the small financial outlay.

By taking rejects from other teams and trying to turn a low budget and low spending team into a competitive outfit.

In Newcastle, we have a situation where our " GM " , CEO Steve Burraston, and the recruitment team ( I imagine headed by Brian Smith ) seem to mould off the " Moneyball " technique.

Last season, we had the retirement of Andrew Johns - with his massive salary opening up alot of space in the salary cap. With the other players cleanout, Perry, Reynoldson etc, we had a massive amount of spending money.

In return we signed what can only be described as rejects from other teams. There is no way in the world that Naiqama, Wicks, Houston were not seen as being expendable by the Dragons, as when you look at the current Dragons team, there isn't a player in their squad that any of our signings could realistically expect to replace in the Dragons first grade team.

Matt Hilder was a solid signing, and he fits the exact type of player described in " Moneyball ".

However overall, we have a team of bits and pieces of players who failed to succeed at other clubs.

This year, for good measure, we have Danny Buderus moving on to the UK. I imagine Mad Dog is leaving too. Doubt remains over a few other players.

Once again, and considering we are already spending under the salary cap for this season, we are cashed up and have money to spend.

Yet who have we signed?! Isaac De Gois is the replacement for Buderus and a good choice, but where is a marquee name?

Karmichael Hunt is potentially available, and the Knights no doubt have the cash to go after him, making Kurt Gidley's utility value even more valuable to make a play at Hunt. But will we? I doubt it.

Big names have come off contract at other clubs, superstars, and the Knights seem reluctant to go after any superstars to replace them.

When Fittler retired from the Roosters, the team went out and bought big name replacements.

When the Bulldogs had a lot of free money, they have gone off and purchased Hannant, Ennis, Morris, and others for next season in addition to Sonny Bill Williams.

What are we doing at the Knights?

Fair to say not alot. We made a play for Anthony Tupou, but it was never going to happen.

Is the club even attempting to talk to the likes of Hunt? Folau? I know we might not be in with a realistic chance with many of the players, but are the team even trying?

The perception from many players that Brian Smith is not good to play under may be having an impact, but I think overall the Knights have a policy of trying to find cheaper, undervalued players from other teams to mould into the Knights first grade team.

We have Kurt Gidley, and after Buderus leaves, not much else to build the team's identity around.

Even at Knights games now, only Gidley and Buderus get massive cheers when the team is announced.

It is important for a club to have big names. And the " Moneyball " approach is concerning.

When you line up the players we have lost in recent years, Johns, Buderus, Gidley, Tahu... and next to them list the players we have signed to replace them, it doesn't look pretty.

Oakland, with all their famous Moneyball technique, have never won a World Series, and this year are dumping salary again by trading away their high profile players in order to move into a new stadium and cut costs.

In Newcastle, I'm just worried that the penny pinching tactics that is seen by our match day entertainment budgets etc, are flowing over into our player recruitment.

Gone are the days when we could sign a Ben Kennedy.

As for " Moneyball " you don't have to be into baseball to get alot out of it. It's brilliant.

I'm worried Newcastle is following down the same path, and that we no longer have the junior system bursting at the seams that we once had a few seasons ago.

Onslow might be able to change that, but for now, I'd like to think the Knights were having a real crack at trying to pull some big name players to the team to replace the world class players leaving the club.

To make money you have to spend money after all.
 

Karmawave

Bench
Messages
4,950
Ben Cross was no "moneyball" signing, but on the whole I agree with you.

The thing about Ben Cross, he hasn't been a top line front rower for multiple seasons in the same way his rivals are. He excelled at a team brimming with stars, and benefitted from that big time when it came to his Knights contract.

Having said that, Cross is in his late 20's, and so far this year hasn't played many games for Newcastle.

When it was time to play Origin footy this year, he was badly found out as being not up to the standard.

If anything given that, whatever we paid for Cross, is it fair to say it was too much?!

I also don't think Ben Cross is on as much money as we might think.
 

Johns Magic

Referee
Messages
21,654
The thing about Ben Cross, he hasn't been a top line front rower for multiple seasons in the same way his rivals are. He excelled at a team brimming with stars, and benefitted from that big time when it came to his Knights contract.

Having said that, Cross is in his late 20's, and so far this year hasn't played many games for Newcastle.

When it was time to play Origin footy this year, he was badly found out as being not up to the standard.

If anything given that, whatever we paid for Cross, is it fair to say it was too much?!

I also don't think Ben Cross is on as much money as we might think.

I disagree that he got shown up in Origin.

Obviously he hasn't delivered value for money at this stage, but you can't predict those injuries he got.

I'll give him til the end of next year to assess his worth.
 

antonius

Coach
Messages
10,104
Good post Karma. I think you've hit the nail on the head. Your post I think sums up one of the reasons for our falling gates, and "hear a pin drop crowd support"
 

Karmawave

Bench
Messages
4,950
Good post Karma. I think you've hit the nail on the head. Your post I think sums up one of the reasons for our falling gates, and "hear a pin drop crowd support"

It really is.

Getting fired up for 7 or 8 low paid solid average footballers just doesn't have the same impact as getting fired up for 1 or 2 genuine superstars.

I'd really love to know if Brian Smith has read Moneyball. He has touched on reading American sports books in the past, and that kind of book really seems right up his alley.
 

antonius

Coach
Messages
10,104
I don't really think this is anything new here in Newcastle. The only real signings we have ever made have been Kennedy, and to a lesser extent Parsons.

In the past Johns took a large slice of our cap, so we were shackled a bit there. We were happy to sign local players from the real NRL, and fringe first graders like Reynoldson, Johns made up for this by making these guys better players. That of course no longer applies, but as you say we are not going after any big names now he's gone. You have to think that we don't have the money to spend even though we're under the cap, the money just might not be there.

Like it or not the club are going to have to invest soon, we have plenty of young guys coming through, but you need a couple of quality experienced players to show the way. With Buderus gone next year we will be relying on Kurt Gidley heavily to fill that role along with Simpson, looking at our current roster I don't see anyone else to lead the way.
 

Karmawave

Bench
Messages
4,950
The strength of our junior system is always best reflected when our high quality top line juniors get chased by rival clubs because we are bursting to the brim and we have too many to keep.

That isn't the case anymore. How long has it been since a Greg Bird, Brett Kimmorley, Anthony Tupou have been signed from our junior system to rival clubs and gone on to reach their potential?

Along with that, the Knights aren't the regular grand finalists that we once used to often be at Flegg, Ball and Matthews level anymore either.

Relying entirely on the junior base doesn't always work in recruitment. It's a cyclical process.

A few years ago, Australian junior rep Kade Snowden was wrapped up to be the next best thing since god knows what... He ended up being seen as expendable and left to the Sharks, where he is nothing more than a solid forward.

Gun juniors doesn't always turn into gun first graders, and given the way our current line up reads, the emphasis on local juniors seems lower than ever.

So if we are going to sign from the outside, let's spend the cash and build a team around a few genuine superstars. Give Gidley some help... please.
 

Karmawave

Bench
Messages
4,950
Spending $ on bigger names also has a lot more impact on some outside influences than we may think.

Like the team getting more respect from referees. Bigger the names in a team, the bigger respect level from the refs. Not ideal, but the way it is.

Whenever there is a guy with the aura of a superstar out there, it's amazing how often the rub of the green seems to go your teams way.
 

Serc

First Grade
Messages
6,902
Karmichael Hunt is potentially available, and the Knights no doubt have the cash to go after him, making Kurt Gidley's utility value even more valuable to make a play at Hunt. But will we? I doubt it.

Who needs Karmichael Hunt when you have Kurt Gidley?

But yes overall you're on the mark here, but I don't see anything changing as surely we all expected this after it was announced Smithy was signed up during 06? You only have to look at the way he built the Eels 01 GF team to know what he was going to do here...
 

Serc

First Grade
Messages
6,902
How long has it been since a Greg Bird, Brett Kimmorley, Anthony Tupou have been signed from our junior system to rival clubs and gone on to reach their potential?

I think the way we did NYC this year with the 'imports' as coined by some will go some way to explaining that, Roopy will probably write an essay on it if you ask him :p
 
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Karmawave

Bench
Messages
4,950
Who needs Karmichael Hunt when you have Kurt Gidley?

Well with Gidley's utility value, it would be nice to see them running around on the field at the same time. Hunt is a top line talent the likes of which don't come onto the market very often.

Plus he is still young.

But that's just living in fantasy land anyway, the Knights won't be chasing Hunt. They don't seem to chase anyone.

It gets frustrating from a fans perspective that whenever any big names are in negotiations for new clubs, the Knights are rarely even " linked " to them in the newspapers.
 
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Karmawave

Bench
Messages
4,950
I think the way we did NYC this year with the 'imports' as coined by some has a long way to explaining that, Roopy will probably write an essay on it if you ask him :p


:lol:

Definitely.

I believe in building our Newcastle junior system into being the best in the game.

When the Knights do spend money, it shouldn't be on outside recruitment of players under 20, it should be on established first grade stars.

Teams are filled with Under 20 " stars " who don't go on to make it.

Our junior base is more than enough to build a strong future out of. Onslow will likely focus on the locals like he used to ( hopefully )...

The money should be going on established stars for sure.
 

Jono078

Referee
Messages
21,201
IMO we missed out big with Civoniceva.

I was told we were really good chance of getting him. But then Panthers gave him what he really wanted.

And tbh I don't know if he'd be on all that much more than Cross? Maybe 150k extra, tops.
 

reginald.p

Juniors
Messages
208
We already have 5 marquee players.

Gidley
Buderus
Simpson
Mullen
Cross

The problem is we have a team made up of 5 quality players a handful of decent players (Naiquama Hilder Patterson) and then about 20 fringe first graders.
 

antonius

Coach
Messages
10,104
We already have 5 marquee players.

Gidley
Buderus
Simpson
Mullen
Cross

The problem is we have a team made up of 5 quality players a handful of decent players (Naiquama Hilder Patterson) and then about 20 fringe first graders.
I wouldn't class Mullen as a "marquee" player yet, and Cross certainly isn't. The only player we'll have next year that will get people excited about watching them is Gidley, that takes nothing away from Simmo, he obviously is a very important part of our team.
 

Karmawave

Bench
Messages
4,950
Let's be honest, Simpson's no longer the player he once was.


Of course he isn't. And somehow he has gone from 80 minute player to 45.

Next year, we have one marquee player. Kurt Gidley.

It would be nice to think we are a genuine chance when it comes to signing a Karmichael Hunt, Israel Folau, Anthony Tupou. But we don't ever seem to be.

Buderus and Johns were on just about the maximum a player is on anywhere in the game, so it would be nice to think we could get a similar player to one of the above to replace them.

Isaac De Gois ( as good a player as he is ) is all we have to show for it?
 

roopy

Referee
Messages
27,980
The best player for the Melbourne storm NYC team this year has been their captain Lucas Miller.
Lucas played for NSW at 3 different age levels, won the Carlsen medal as our best junior and was signed by us for this year, but we let him go on 'compassionate' grounds - whatever that means.
Lucas played like sh*t for us last year and it was obvious he didn't want to be here, and before picking up a horrible injury two weeks ago he was back to being the next big thing for Melbourne. He was named 18th man for firstgrade 3 or 4 times and played firstgrade trial games in the pre season. Quite frankly, the son of our former PL coach Barney Miller is the rarest of all birds, a playmaking forward - think of the size and build of Pato, the off load of Royal, and a genuine playmaker as well.

Lucas was our best junior prospect since Kade - and we lost him this year.

Now let's look at the 21 year old crop who has just come through our juniors - Mullo, Pato, Scotty, Walshy, Aku, Jimmy, Kade, Terrence - then you have Miller at Melbourne, Hlad playing for Castleford, Jonno Wright scoring against us in NSW cup, Timmy, Gordon, H, Lingy all in our NSW cup side - and even Wooden and Schillings starring in the real NRL.

You can't say our junior nursery is dead when our best ever crop of juniors is coming into grade as we speak.

We had a poor year in the juniors this year - but Mathews, Ball and NYC are all shaping up as special sides next season without a single new player - but we will see new players with our new recruitment guy - I just hope they are a lot better than the nuffies we got for this season.
 
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