Recruitment - Newcastle's Version Of " Moneyball "

[Karmawave]

Now let's look at the 21 year old crop who has just come through our juniors - Mullo, Pato, Scotty, Walshy, Aku, Jimmy, Kade, Terrence - then you have Miller at Melbourne, Hlad playing for Castleford, Jonno Wright scoring against us in NSW cup, Timmy, Gordon, H, Lingy all in our NSW cup side - and even Wooden and Schillings starring in the real NRL.

Jarrod Mullen could be something special. But I think the team needs to decide if he is a 5/8 or half, and stick to it.

Patto - he could be a future rep player too, but if being from Western Australia is a local product...
( McManus is Scottish and from Darwin )

Luke Walsh is an example of a star junior who a club has big future plans for, signs them to a 3 year contract worth some solid coin, who just doesn't reach the potential - and doesn't look like ever doing so as it stands. You can be sure, Luke Walsh isn't going anywhere anytime soon with the money he is guaranteed the next 2 seasons unless he gets some real good offer to replace it. He'll be happy sitting in reserve grade making 6 figures as the highest paid NSW Cup player running around :lol:

The rest of them...well...

Are they really in the same league as the 18, 19, 20 year olds running around at other teams who are excelling in first grade? Are they as good as a Tony Williams, Folau, Inglis, Justin Carney, Lachlan Coote, Wade Graham, Anthony Cherrington et al...

I believe the answer is a resounding no.

Uate has potential, alot of it. Plus he has a profile that could be a real cult figure at the club - then again so does Vuna.

But please don't get me wrong, the point of this thread is not so much about our juniors as it is about the Knights reluctance to go in search of a superstar name as a ready replacement for who we are losing.

We lose Johns and Buderus ( Perry, Mad Dog and others ).

Line up the names that the club have signed to replace them and it's not real pretty.

Marketability of a football team - its product - its an integral part of it running a successful business that makes money.

When we have names like Wicks, Naiqama, Houston etc floating across our screens in flash on our brand new spanking website, it just kinda takes away the appeal of the brand.

 

[Burwood]

On the other side of the coin, Smith's recruitment is starting to pay dividends now that a few key players are getting injured. Our depth pretty much across the park is phenomenal- it's true that we don't have star players in each position, but we do have 2-3 players capable of stepping up to first grade without the team losing too much.

If we invested a large proportion of our salary cap towards 2-3 big names instead of the 6-7 guys we bought last year, I've got little doubt that we wouldn't be as strong as we've been so far this year.

We lost to a top-of-the-table team last night by a couple of points. Doesn't sound too impressive, but when you consider that we had 700+ games of experience sitting on the sideline, I don't have any doubt that we would have lost by a lot more if we didn't have the depth to cover these injuries.

I think the big challenge for Smith is to get some of our players up to the 'superstar' status that they are capable of- players that the fans don't mind paying money to come see and cheer for. Uate and Kidley are probably two that come to mind, but there are also guys like Cross and Wicks (yes, he is fat and lazy- but you can't deny his charisma and potential if he gets his attitude to training/diet right).

I'm also not too sure that we have only picked up other club's rejects. Lulia was behind two international centres in Gasnier and Cooper and would have struggled to get a first-grade other than through injuries. Houston hasn't lived up to his potential (yet!), but he was seen as a possible future leader at St George and Newcastle offered him a contract that they just couldn't match.

 

[Karmawave]

Good point of view Burwood.

Some really good angles of looking at it.

 

[Burwood]

If only the club could find the happy median

I really miss being able to go to games and cheer on a flamboyant back like Tahu or a dominating forward like Harragon and Kennedy, but I'm loving that our biggest loss so far this season has been only 16 points against the table-topping Sea Eagles. We kept Melbourne scoreless for 60 minutes!

Since it seems pretty clear that Smith will be following the "moneyball" approach to recruitment, we just have to hope that some of our current crop can turn into these types of players. The fans and sponsors need these personalities at the club!

 

[roopy]

Are they really in the same league as the 18, 19, 20 year olds running around at other teams who are excelling in first grade? Are they as good as a Tony Williams, Folau, Inglis, Justin Carney, Lachlan Coote, Wade Graham, Anthony Cherrington et al...

Yes they are.
We see all the faults in our young guys because we know them well, and we only see the good things in kids from other clubs - but fans of other clubs are wondering why they can't produce juniors like Mullo, Pato, Aku and even Dureau and Walsh.
The clubs that produce the most firstgraders are Broncos, Warriors, Us, then Saints. The only sides that beat us in junior production have a whole state or a whole country to pick from.

 

[Karmawave]

If only the club could find the happy median

I really miss being able to go to games and cheer on a flamboyant back like Tahu or a dominating forward like Harragon and Kennedy, but I'm loving that our biggest loss so far this season has been only 16 points against the table-topping Sea Eagles. We kept Melbourne scoreless for 60 minutes!

Since it seems pretty clear that Smith will be following the "moneyball" approach to recruitment, we just have to hope that some of our current crop can turn into these types of players. The fans and sponsors need these personalities at the club!

I guess it comes down to whether we are happy with mediocrity or not.

Its eeringly similar to the Oakland Athletics and the " Moneyball " approach to results even though we are in completely different sports.

Competitive, but not an appealing business model image wise, and not all that much end of season success.

 

[Yosh]

We already have 5 marquee players.

Gidley
Buderus
Simpson
Mullen
Cross

The problem is we have a team made up of 5 quality players a handful of decent players (Naiquama Hilder Patterson) and then about 20 fringe first graders.

Wes is not a decent player... He is garbage...

Hilder yeah he is pretty soild...

I dont think players are our problem. Newcastle at the moment in my most honest opinon have a side that can win the comp (perhaps not win but easily be in the top 4) but we just dont win games that we should. I have said it before and I will say it again, there are 2 teams at newcastle. One team that wants to not only win but kill the opposition team and put their heart and soul into a match, much like thier supporters (teams like this played against the storm eariler this year) and the other team is is half lazy uninterested team that comes out and plays unfortunately more often then not (agasint the warriors and parra a little to)...

Skillwise I think BSmith has bought the team finally up to the NRL standard after Hagan had left us with the least skilled team in the comp (only skilled players were Buderus and Joey and everyone else just fed off them) but we still have a Hagan Hangover... We just not in every game... If we played like we did against Melborune every game we would easily be top 4...

Signing big name players are not going to help. Look at our side? The top 5 players are all rep quality (Mullen and Cross to a lesser extent) and we have some solid first graders Patterson, Hilder and Royal and some real exciting players who I would include Uate, Vuna and Faoso... We have a good to great team, if you compare Storm team side by side with ours I am sure there is not much difference... (I know about the Inglis and Falou but other positions I think we can nearly match them) its just attitude... I dont know if BSmith is really working hardcore on this aspect of our game but I hope he does...

Houston should get dropped for a while, dont believe he got the captancy...

 

[Karmawave]

I dont think players are our problem. Newcastle at the moment in my most honest opinon have a side that can win the comp (perhaps not win but easily be in the top 4) but we just dont win games that we should.

Serious question and not sarcastic...

Do you think that could possibly be because we lack a true superstar gamebreaker apart from just Kurt Gidley?

I think the difference between us now and the top 4 is just that one big name who could make a difference. A matchwinner.

That's kinda my point in this whole thread. It would be nice to replace a superstar with another.

I know you touched on Melbourne but they have a Greg Inglis and Billy Slater.

We have Kurt Gidley and...

Get one more matchwinner and I think you find it's the difference between where we are right now and the top 4.

 

[reginald.p]

Maybe marquee isn't the right word but all five have played origin in the past two seasons thats a lot of rep players, more then the average team, manly only had 1 this year. Melbourne have about 10 rep players but the point you ignore is they didn't sign any of them when they were stars they were pretty all much unheard of when they went to Melbourne.

Thats what we have to do, produce our own star players. We don't really have a choice anyway since like it or not players aren't exactly lining up to move to Newcastle.

 

[Yosh]

Serious question and not sarcastic...

Do you think that could possibly be because we lack a true superstar gamebreaker apart from just Kurt Gidley?

I think the difference between us now and the top 4 is just that one big name who could make a difference. A matchwinner.

That's kinda my point in this whole thread. It would be nice to replace a superstar with another.

I know you touched on Melbourne but they have a Greg Inglis and Billy Slater.

We have Kurt Gidley and...

Get one more matchwinner and I think you find it's the difference between where we are right now and the top 4.

I see where your coming from, but like its not like we cant score thats why we lose alot of our games... Its always the same old story, we lose possession through crap ball control, and give away too many penalties... I doubt a game winner could change this, maybe Joey or Lockyer but noone else...

 

[NK Arsenal]

The only real signings we have ever made have been Kennedy, and to a lesser extent Parsons.

Don't forget Julian O'Neil, David Fairleigh and Paul Marquet.

Btw, does anyone know what ever happened to Justin "Knight" Ryder?

 

[Burwood]

He has his own business. Does a lot of work with kids in schools running after-school fitness programs etc.

 

[Karmawave]

Maybe we are just waiting for Robbie Farah to come off contract :lol:

 

[perverse]

i don't have any problem with this recruitment strategy at all. it's quite clear that they are trying to "home-grow" the superstars of the team, and fill in the gaps where necessary from the outside.

it will pay dividends and work very well if paterson, mullen, uate et al realise their potential. the jury is out thus far, but signs are promising. it makes sense to conduct recruitment in this way in newcastle... after all there is nothing more that the newcastle faithful love more than a homegrown hero.

 

[Karmawave]

Yes, but are the juniors coming through the ranks currently of the same high quality to those in past years?

It is a bit concerning to me that our team is one of only two NRL teams to not have a player make their debut in first grade this year who is playing NYC Under 20s.

 

[perverse]

Yes, but are the juniors coming through the ranks currently of the same high quality to those in past years?

It is a bit concerning to me that our team is one of only two NRL teams to not have a player make their debut in first grade this year who is playing NYC Under 20s.

our best flegg team of all time is coming through, which includes the likes of mullen, pato, scotty d, lingy and timmy... plus more that arn't coming to mind off the top of my head.

very interested to see if ling and natusch make it through to firsts as well. roopy knows these kids ability better than anyone.. and i'm sure he will chime in soon and tell us all about it.

this may be another reason why our recruitment from outside is slim. that flegg team was full of potential superstars and i daresay we're going to give them every chance to make it big. all just speculation though, but yes, i believe that the crop that is coming through could be the best ever to come through.

 

[Karmawave]

Hope you're right Perverse.

The memories of Jermaine Ale being an absolute gun junior, Australian schoolboy, Junior Kangaroo, and lured away from the Knights on MASSIVE money to go to the Roosters ( without even playing a first grade game ) remains a vivid picture in my mind.

The Roosters are probably still having nightmares about his contract.

If he went on to play 15 first grade games between there and then the Raiders after the Roosters cut him, I'd be suprised.

At the time Knights fans were up in arms about him leaving for such ridiculous money, but I wonder how we all feel now?

Safe to say that only the minority of junior stars go on to be able to excell at first grade level and it's sometimes the least likely who do. Not even an optimist could predict Anthony Tupou would go on to lose 20kgs at the Roosters and play for Australia when he was let go by the Knights.

 

[perverse]

oh absolutely, a very low percentage of juniors anywhere actually succeed in first grade, which is why it's so astounding that so many from that same flegg team have debuted and looked the goods. still waiting for roopy to come up with the full list... but im pretty sure kade snowden, lucas miller and maybe even terrence seu seu can be added to it. we could see as many as 9 or 10 of the kids from that team make it big in the NRL. we've kept a good percentage of them here too.

 

[roopy]

Yes, but are the juniors coming through the ranks currently of the same high quality to those in past years?

It is a bit concerning to me that our team is one of only two NRL teams to not have a player make their debut in first grade this year who is playing NYC Under 20s.

It's actually got more to do with desire and attitude than natural ability in most cases.
The reason so many of our 2004 Ball/ 2006 Flegg side have gone on with it is not that they are a lot more talented, but because those guys had great success and great fun and have all just kept going and doing the training needed to make the grade.
I don't think it hurt that they had Rip Taylor as a coach, because he has a way of keeping players working at their games and encouraging young blokes.
We have massive talent in the juniors right now. Joel Edwards, Tyler Sullivan, Mitch Garbutt, Jeremy Ma'a, the four Mata'utia brothers - all as good as our present firstgraders were as juniors - it's just a matter of them maintaining the desire and doing the work needed.
John Morris once gave an interview where he said heaps of guys in the Knights juniors were more talented than him, but he was the one who kept working hard.
The reason we get more kids through to firstgrade than other clubs is not because of the talent we have, but because the club culture keeps the kids working on their game, and the whole community makes then think playing for the Knights is a bloody good thing to work towards.

The 2006 Flegg boys have all fed off each other's success and desire - Scotty Dureau would never have worked his guts out to play firstgrade if he hadn't been best mates with Mullen and Cooper and Seu Seu and Pato and the hardworking kiwi guys.

Of the current mob coming through the only freakishly gifted athletes are Mullo, Kade and Aku - the rest have worked hard to get where they are.

 

[Johns Magic]

John Morris once gave an interview where he said heaps of guys in the Knights juniors were more talented than him, but he was the one who kept working hard.

I believe that