Round 21 v Dragons

[Pomoz]

It's interesting, coming into this season it looked like our foundation and strength (pack, go forward, kicking game) should not be too impacted by departures given the starting pack and back 3 were intact. I thought where we'd need to make up for the drop in class (Critta) would be Nath/Luai combining a bit more and hopefully getting both edges firing (previously we've been very wonky with the left strong and then the right, but never both).

I'd say our intensity, line speed and aggression in defence has been the biggest fundamental difference in our performance this year. Most games we are in the wrestle whereas last year teams barely sniffed our line or our half for that matter. Obviously we've had a new prop come in, a rotating cast on the edges all year and probably a rep hangover with our main middles to explain some of it. Penrith's juggernaut is built on putting extreme fatigue into teams and that makes defending your line on the odd occasion much easier. We haven't been doing that this year really and I think its another reason why our right edge has been exposed.

Hopefully we're well placed to start winding that back up going into August healthy though and our right edge will have some time to build confidence and combinations.

Our middles started the year flat and exhausted. Its only in the last month JFH has looked anything like the player he can be at best. Leota the same and I think he is still not there yet. These two are the rock our premierships were built on.

 

[Pomoz]

I'm going to Wollongong with a Dragons maniac for this.

Don't f**k it up boys.

I went there years ago (93 I think) to watch us vs the Steelers. The Steelers had some good players back then, Wishart, Rodwell, Simon and Linder. Even with Fittler, Girdler, Alexander and Carter we still lost and the crowd were merciless mocking me and the missus in our Panthers jerseys. It was a long walk back to the car in silence and an even longer drive back to the riff.

Hopefully, you don't get to repeat the experience.

 

[Chins get the wins]

Our middles started the year flat and exhausted. Its only in the last month JFH has looked anything like the player he can be at best. Leota the same and I think he is still not there yet. These two are the rock our premierships were built on.

Fish is playing better than last year, he started slowly but he's firing now

 

[snickers007]

It's interesting, coming into this season it looked like our foundation and strength (pack, go forward, kicking game) should not be too impacted by departures given the starting pack and back 3 were intact. I thought where we'd need to make up for the drop in class (Critta) would be Nath/Luai combining a bit more and hopefully getting both edges firing (previously we've been very wonky with the left strong and then the right, but never both).

I'd say our intensity, line speed and aggression in defence has been the biggest fundamental difference in our performance this year. Most games we are in the wrestle whereas last year teams barely sniffed our line or our half for that matter. Obviously we've had a new prop come in, a rotating cast on the edges all year and probably a rep hangover with our main middles to explain some of it. Penrith's juggernaut is built on putting extreme fatigue into teams and that makes defending your line on the odd occasion much easier. We haven't been doing that this year really and I think its another reason why our right edge has been exposed.

Hopefully we're well placed to start winding that back up going into August healthy though and our right edge will have some time to build confidence and combinations.

Good points made, probably two key things not considered.

In the past, a lot of our dominance in defence started with a great kick and kick chase.
With Cleary being restricted to just 6 games this season, we haven't been able to pin teams in their own red zone with regularity. For me this is the biggest difference between Cogger and SOS as backups versus Schneider.

Also, the increase in short dropouts (and their success rate of recovery) has hampered our ability to grind away for 3,4,5 sets at a time.

I think the next 2-3 weeks will show whether we're officially on the downward trend - or whether it's all been personnel/combinations related.

 

[maple_69]

Yeah kicking game for sure is a big part of it. Luai has stepped up big time but you just can’t replace the best kicking game in history. I expect we probably won’t see many kicks for the in goal now that we can more reliably drive teams back to start inside their 10/20. Handing the ball over in the corner is our game. Pulling defences apart on their line with the dual threat of Luai/Cleary to force six agains is what we need to shoot for. Nathan’s ability to drop a chip 3m out from the line on the opposition half is also underrated. Plenty of mistakes and scrappy tries come out of those kicks even if it’s not your traditional repeat set kick.

 

[Fangs]

Prior to Pantherball becoming a thing I noticed that generally the missed tackle count of a team would be pretty close to total points conceded. For example twelve missed tackles would be twelve points against. A definite correlation although causation is tenuous.

The Panther (now Bulldogs too) defensive structure seems less concerned with missed tackles but more that the tackle attempt disrupts the opposition attack. By that I mean the ball carrier can't cleanly break the line themselves or pass to outside players with good timing.

Individual plays are a culmination of what comes before them. A poor kick chase or non dominant tackle in the middle can be responsible for the line break three PTBs later.

I'd like to know if the advanced metrics used in house consider the plays before hand.

It blew my mind when I realised the 2013 grand final was won by the most ill-disciplined team in the competition.

They are up to their old tricks again it seems. 130 penalties conceded, by far the most in the competition.

But I need a break down of boneheaded penalties for dangerous contact vs ruck infringements/offside.

 

[Fangs]

Tyrell Sloan dropped according to Telegraph.

Now that is also mind blowing.

I can't believe he got such a long stay in the 1. His defence is abominable. Matt Dufty offered more.

 

[snickers007]

Dragons fans are saying Sloan has done a hamstring

 

[WestyLife]

It blew my mind when I realised the 2013 grand final was won by the most ill-disciplined team in the competition.

They are up to their old tricks again it seems. 130 penalties conceded, by far the most in the competition.

But I need a break down of boneheaded penalties for dangerous contact vs ruck infringements/offside.

It was a very deliberate tactic to take momentum from the attacking team.

 

[maple_69]

Bad news for us. In a competition absolutely stacked with fullbacks, he is a huge disadvantage for the Drags. Fuller, Armstrong, Iongi, Laurie, Fa'alogo, Sharpe, Critta, Turuva would all be better options.

 

[age.s]

Bad news for us. In a competition absolutely stacked with fullbacks, he is a huge disadvantage for the Drags. Fuller, Armstrong, Iongi, Laurie, Fa'alogo, Sharpe, Critta, Turuva would all be better options.

While this is true, none of those options can line up against us on Sunday.

 

[Kilkenny]

I'm going to Wollongong with a Dragons maniac for this.

Don't f**k it up boys.

I was there the day Luke Priddis was denied a try base d on one of the most dubious double movement calls in the history of the game.

 

[Westernised Panther]

I was there the day Luke Priddis was denied a try base d on one of the most dubious double movement calls in the history of the game.

I remember that game! There was a lot of dodgy calls from memory. Phil Gould even wrote an article about it.

 

[Kilkenny]

I remember that game! There was a lot of dodgy calls from memory. Phil Gould even wrote an article about it.

It was a shocker, I think Gould delivered a massive spray during the 9 commentary, rightfully so.

 

[The Realist]

You need to read my post. I listed line breaks conceded and try causes. Here it is again:
The players with the most try causes at the Panthers are as follows:

Turuva - 15 in 15 games
Tago - 13 in 16 games
Edwards - 12 in 13 games
Alamoti - 10 in 11 games
Cleary - 6 in 6 games

Line break causes:

Turuva - 18 in 15 games
Alamoti 13 in 11 games
To'o 11 in 14 games
Luai 8 in 14 games
Tago - 8 in 14 games
Cleary 7 in 6 games

Tackles can only be measured by effective tackle % since players make different amounts of tackles based on their position, so missed tackles is not indicative across the whole team. The bottom five players are:

Turuva - 62
Edwards - 70
Alamoti - 75
Peachey - 77
To'o - 77

Tago's tackle percentage is 82%. He has made the most tackles of any of our backs and the most 1 on 1 tackles.

As the data shows, Tago is not the worst player in the team for tries and line breaks. He is the best of our regular backs in defence. Schnieder and Cole are better though, with 83 and 88% respectively.

The areas where Tago does stand out though is with errors (1.43 per game) and penalties (0.75 per game). Incidentally, Luai is second in this area.

Tago needs to improve his error and penalty rates. The rest of the backs need to improve their tackling so they are as good as Tago. Several of them, including Cleary and Edwards need to improve their positioning so they cause less line breaks and tries.

Goes to show how much I pay attention to stats etc these days on the internet. I had no idea that try causes and line break causes even existed in publicly available stats. I thought that they would only exist behind the scenes at the pro analyst level.

Thanks for the post!

 

[The Realist]

I'd encourage everyone to dive into the Fox Sports Lab if you haven't already. You might notice some differences with the stats on the NRL website but they are minimal. The lab is also more comprehensive than what is on NRL.com.

Some golden rules for those who haven't heard them before:

1.) Stats are volatile when dealing with low volume (Its round 21 so shouldn't be a huge problem)
2.) Stats are important but don't replace the eye test (And vice versa)

When used appropriately it can generate a lot of great discussion. You might need to do some pruning as this data set isn't so reliable when filtering by position (For example Tom T is listed as a centre despite playing only one game there this season):

NRL Premiership Players Statistics | FOX SPORTS Lab

Players Statistics Table for NRL Premiership

www.foxsports.com.au

Its not perfect but its the best I've found available to fans. I'd love to see what data the Penrith Panthers collect in-house (The guy in the coaches box with the laptop would be my guess).

If it's True to Stereotype, it's the Asian bloke.

 

[Crush]

Dragons at WIN go alright, undefeated this year I think. I’d be nervous if I was a Panthers supporter, a game expected to win.
Sloan out is fine, he adds nothing, Fegai has been excellent at the back in reserves earlier in the year.
Sunday 2pm, great timeslot!

 

[ColdWetPanther]

Dragons at WIN go alright, undefeated this year I think. I’d be nervous if I was a Panthers supporter, a game expected to win.
Sloan out is fine, he adds nothing, Fegai has been excellent at the back in reserves earlier in the year.
Sunday 2pm, great timeslot!

I agree; I am nervous about this one.

 

[Goonji]

I was more nervous last week. With the Origin crew and Cleary back they won't lose to the Dragons twice in the same season.

 

[West Nowra Panther]

I was more nervous last week. With the Origin crew and Cleary back they won't lose to the Dragons twice in the same season.

I remember Faitala-Mariner killed us with no origin stars or Nathan last time we played them in round 13.

Different side this week.