Round 24 V Warriors

[MrBlack]

Your premise may be valid for one game, but a coach who has delivered a one, two, one finish over three years is obviously doing something right. Throw in the GF win and the fact the team was the youngest in the NRL when it lost in 2020 and I would say Cleary ain't perfect, but he has turned into an excellent coach.

Luck and fate for three years and bad coaching?! Nah.

agree. He’s done a fine job.

Short of the usual suspects in Bellamy etc. who would you actually swap Cleary (snr) for??

 

[Iamback]

agree. He’s done a fine job.

Short of the usual suspects in Bellamy etc. who would you actually swap Cleary (snr) for??

Depends how much you think is the players.

Counting Burton and Capewell. 8 members of last years 17 played Origin.
Starting props played Test footy for NZ.

How many coaches could go well with a stacked roster like that? It is always hard with short periods like this, Needs to be more sustained to get a true reflection

 

[The Realist]

Your premise may be valid for one game, but a coach who has delivered a one, two, one finish over three years is obviously doing something right. Throw in the GF win and the fact the team was the youngest in the NRL when it lost in 2020 and I would say Cleary ain't perfect, but he has turned into an excellent coach.

Luck and fate for three years and bad coaching?! Nah.

I was talking about the business end of the season. We are still a very sketchy finals team over that period. If G.Jennings had caught a simple pass then the entire RL world would be rightfully mocking us for being chokers and 20/21 would have been seen as a failure and wasted opportunity. All finals series are tough but ours was the most narrow and fate driven run ever. Our 2020 run into the G/F was also far from comfortable.

I agree Ivan has improved. I would have rated him as an above average 6.5/10 coach before 2020. It is clear he is now a good/very good coach 7.5 or even 8/10.

In saying that I think our success over the last 3 years is more due to the fact that we have had STACKED rosters. I honestly think if we assessed the true 'open value' of our rosters at seasons end, our teams were 'worth' 10-11 million as opposed to the nominal 9.1 million. You can argue that coaching has done that but i think it is more a 'whole of club' effort to get the talent production line up and running and players wanting to stay.

Of course the proof will be this years results and the next few years. People knew Bellamy was an excellent coach but there was rightfully some skepticism as to whether he was being carried by his roster - Smith, Cronk, Slater, Inglis in particular after Manly thrashed them in the Smithless Grand Final. Time has proven he is possibly the best coach ever.

Ivan's true test will be how we handle the loss of Api + Kikau and further on - how he manages an aging roster with declining fan favourites.

 

[Pomoz]

This.

We look to be doing the not resting guys route again, Unless we pull guys out from the 17 but we haven't got Luke in the squad or Jennings. So Api and Tago will play not sure we will run in with half a side the week before the finals too.

Time will tell if it is the right decision

This would be true except for those pesky facts. I have assumed all the players below will play the last two games, except for Cleary, who is suspended.



The hypothesis is that Cleary doesn't learn. Let's ignore May and Tago who are in their rookie year, the facts show that Api is the only player with more games this year. It should be noted that Api has played 10 games with less than 70 minutes. He has been taken off during games and rested.

All the players except Edwards and JFH have had at least one month of football less than in 2021. You can ignore SOO because the players were in the SOO games in 2021 and 2022. In respect of JFH, he has played less than 50 minutes on 9 occasions.

Based on actual data, but acknowledging I have no access to the fitness records that are recorded by the Panthers staff where they monitor their blood, km's run in training etc, the only players that need a rest are Api, JFH and Edwards. Since this is Tago and May's first year, I would rest them as well.

This is a substantially different picture from 2021, where the team was not only knackered, but carrying injuries that required surgery.

 

[Aliceinwonderland]

He's admitted he made the mistake last year and seems to be doing the same again so settle down sweetheart

Ivan was referring to the origin period.

 

[age.s]

Who would have said our roster was stacked before 2020? Edwards was considered one of the poorest fullbacks in an admittedly stacked comp. Nathan was overrated and yet to deliver. Api was another team's castaway, as was Capewell. Burton, Luai, Critta, To'o and Martin were still fresh/rookies. Kikau was a weapon and people somewhat rated Yeo but we were picked by many to be bottom 4 in 2020 and rightly so.

I understand some of the misgivings about Ivan's game day decisions, but there's no way he can be characterized as just a guy with a stacked roster. He developed this roster. This isn't like Stuart with the 00s Roosters.

 

[Pomoz]

Depends how much you think is the players.

Counting Burton and Capewell. 8 members of last years 17 played Origin.
Starting props played Test footy for NZ.

How many coaches could go well with a stacked roster like that? It is always hard with short periods like this, Needs to be more sustained to get a true reflection

That is chicken and the egg logic. Would those players be rep players without the coaching they received at the Panthers? The answer is no. For years we have had lots of juniors who amounted to nothing. Rep players at junior level who sunk without trace. Is it pure luck that we have a strong roster and anybody would have coached the team to a premiership? Nah.

 

[mxlegend99]

This would be true except for those pesky facts. I have assumed all the players below will play the last two games, except for Cleary, who is suspended.

View attachment 65308

The hypothesis is that Cleary doesn't learn. Let's ignore May and Tago who are in their rookie year, the facts show that Api is the only player with more games this year. It should be noted that Api has played 10 games with less than 70 minutes. He has been taken off during games and rested.

All the players except Edwards and JFH have had at least one month of football less than in 2021. You can ignore SOO because the players were in the SOO games in 2021 and 2022. In respect of JFH, he has played less than 50 minutes on 9 occasions.

Based on actual data, but acknowledging I have no access to the fitness records that are recorded by the Panthers staff where they monitor their blood, km's run in training etc, the only players that need a rest are Api, JFH and Edwards. Since this is Tago and May's first year, I would rest them as well.

This is a substantially different picture from 2021, where the team was not only knackered, but carrying injuries that required surgery.

We can't fall down the ladder. We could lose by 50 the next 2 weeks and we still finish first.

It's more than just workload this year. It's potential for injury / suspension. There's nothing gained by using our guns this year. Guys like Yeo, Edwards and Api especially are good enough and experiencd enough and fit enough where we can give them 2 weeks off and they won't skip a beat in finals week 1. They would just be fresher and have less chance at missing the finals series.

1 game in 4 weeks for professionals of their calibre is not going to hold them back in the slightest. I think its just going to give them a hell of a lot more in the tank to comfortably cruise through finals. They're still training and perfecting stuff when not playing.

But each to his own. My worry isn't burnout. My worry is we lose an incredibly important player with nothing on the line and live to regret it.

I would have given Yeo, Edwards and Api 2 weeks off before finals. I would give Tago, May, To'o, Crichton, Kikau etc. Next week off only. Head into finals with a fresh and fit roster. Our training off the field is second to none and with a fresh roster there's no team going to be able to outscore us. We won't concede more than 2 tries if we're at peak fitness. Hell we could keep a few top 8 teams to nil at our best. We will score 3+ tries comfortably just by sustaining pressure and the other team being unable to maintain their intensity for 80 minutes.

The onl thing that will stop us going back to back is losing one of Edwards, Cleary, Api or Yeo. I think without one of them we're still ahead of the pack slightly. Take 2 out and i think we fall slightly behind..cleary is guaranteed to be there week 1. The others have 80 minutes to survive first. Doesn't sound like much. But shit can go wrong fast. Especially when there's not much pressure.

 

[Old and Disgruntled]

The Penrith Fans deserve to see a full strength side this week. They can all have a rest at seasons end. I am sure the Warriors will out to impress their new coach.

 

[MrBlack]

Depends how much you think is the players.

Counting Burton and Capewell. 8 members of last years 17 played Origin.
Starting props played Test footy for NZ.

How many coaches could go well with a stacked roster like that? It is always hard with short periods like this, Needs to be more sustained to get a true reflection

The flip side to that is that maybe it’s a stacked side because he is a good coach.

Capewell, Burton etc we’re not rep players before they played for us.

he even got the Warriors to a grand final. The Warriors!!!

 

[Iamback]

This would be true except for those pesky facts. I have assumed all the players below will play the last two games, except for Cleary, who is suspended.

View attachment 65308

The hypothesis is that Cleary doesn't learn. Let's ignore May and Tago who are in their rookie year, the facts show that Api is the only player with more games this year. It should be noted that Api has played 10 games with less than 70 minutes. He has been taken off during games and rested.

All the players except Edwards and JFH have had at least one month of football less than in 2021. You can ignore SOO because the players were in the SOO games in 2021 and 2022. In respect of JFH, he has played less than 50 minutes on 9 occasions.

Based on actual data, but acknowledging I have no access to the fitness records that are recorded by the Panthers staff where they monitor their blood, km's run in training etc, the only players that need a rest are Api, JFH and Edwards. Since this is Tago and May's first year, I would rest them as well.

This is a substantially different picture from 2021, where the team was not only knackered, but carrying injuries that required surgery.

Good post,

Origin needs to be included though, Take Origin 2 for example the game was in Perth in Sunday. The club game was on Friday so you have that travel taking toll on the body

It is more than games played look at minutes of the top 17

Backs I will leave out because they are expected to get a full game. Forwards we have a few guys getting up there is output compared to the rest of comp, May lead to fatigue

Leota - About ave for most levels
Api minutes seem spot on for most hookers. Total tackles he is 4th
JFH ave 50 mins a game. For total minutes only 3 other props in the finals have more
Kikau ave 76 mins a game. only 3 2nd rowers in the finals have more total minutes. Was starting off the bench last year
Martin ave 70 mins
Yeo ave 75mins. Only Jai Arrow has more minutes played but has played 2 games less

Bench

Sorensen 38 mins
Salmon 36mins
Kenny 33mins
Leinu 23 mins.

Injuries aside

Api
Kiks
Martin
Yeo

Will all get full games
JFH played 70 v Tigers
Sorensen seems to get a decent stint

But the workload you can take off those listed now, Will only help across the finals series

 

[Iamback]

The flip side to that is that maybe it’s a stacked side because he is a good coach.

Capewell, Burton etc we’re not rep players before they played for us.

Could be that too, It is one of the things that is hard to tell until we get in backs against the wall type of situations and come through that

 

[martielang]

I don't think IC is a master coach and makes some head scratching decisions but he definitely deserves a huge amount of credit for the last few seasons. Even if it is just for creating a team environment where players are playing to at least 80% every game.

The whole stacked roster argument is neither here nor there. If the players weren't performing, no one would be saying it's stacked and because they are, it looks stacked.

 

[MrBlack]

Could be that too, It is one of the things that is hard to tell until we get in backs against the wall type of situations and come through that

backs against the wall type of situation - so, like last years finals series??

Also - he was the coach the last time the Tigers were actually competitive

 

[ColdWetPanther]

Could be that too, It is one of the things that is hard to tell until we get in backs against the wall type of situations and come through that

Didn’t we do that last year with all the injuries?

 

[Iamback]

I don't think IC is a master coach and makes some head scratching decisions but he definitely deserves a huge amount of credit for the last few seasons. Even if it is just for creating a team environment where players are playing to at least 80% every game.

The whole stacked roster argument is neither here nor there. If the players weren't performing, no one would be saying it's stacked and because they are, it looks stacked.

Absolutely. Certainly better than Ricky or Brad Arthur coach wise but would of matched it, Cowboys and Sharks have shown how much a good attitude gets a side

 

[Iamback]

Didn’t we do that last year with all the injuries?

Depends on how bad you think the standard of play was.
The 8th placed team only won 10 games
The 7th placed team had a points differential of -143

People mentioned those 2 great coaches and their record over the last 10 years speaks for itself

Paul Green had a purple patch of form in the mid to late 2010's
Des Hasler also around that time had a purple patch. Would you class either as a great coach though?

I'd have Ivan in the very good coach at the stage, With a great squad.
Still need to see us total dominate a final series and not be competition favourites to elevate into the great category

 

[Smug Panther]

Depends on how bad you think the standard of play was.
The 8th placed team only won 10 games
The 7th placed team had a points differential of -143

People mentioned those 2 great coaches and their record over the last 10 years speaks for itself

Paul Green had a purple patch of form in the mid to late 2010's
Des Hasler also around that time had a purple patch. Would you class either as a great coach though?

I'd have Ivan in the very good coach at the stage, With a great squad.
Still need to see us total dominate a final series and not be competition favourites to elevate into the great category

I think Des is a good coach. Got some pretty average Dogs sides to GF's

 

[Iamback]

I think Des is a good coach. Got some pretty average Dogs sides to GF's

2014 especially they came 7th. Made the GF

 

[Kilkenny]

Where’s Salmon this week, is he injured, I assume he must be given not named at all.