By about 2020 (3 TV deals time) I'd estimate a realistic outcome for the NRL would be an 18 team competition as thus:
North QLD
Brisbane
SE QLD/Sunshine Coast/West Brisbane
Gold Coast
Central Coast (A relocated Sydney team)
Newcastle
Canberra
Melbourne
Perth
Auckland
Wellington
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Sydney x7 (1 relocation to Gosford and 1 new joint venture or a club drops down to the open age NSW comp)
This would cover every city along the eastern seaboard capable of supporting an NRL team, as well as teams in Canberra, Melbourne, Perth, Auckland and Wellington.
Perth/WA should be a shoe-in after 4 years of playing in the JB/QLD cup, developing player depth, a fan base, and general recognition for the state team.
They have a clear course of action to re-instatement that they began implementing last year with the rebirth of the WA Reds, and have the support of the ARL and possibly South Sydney. They are aiming for a 2012 return date to the NRL ('08-'09 JB Cup, '10-'11 QLD Cup, 2012 NRL). It's been reported, although I can't find a link, that they have over 1,000 ticketed members for there first season in the Jim Beam Cup - very impressive if true.
Another Brisbane/SE QLD team is a must within 15 years. By 2030 QLD will be the second most populous state in Australia. The Broncos needs another local rival not only for the people of Brisbane whom dislike the Broncos, but so a game can be played out of Suncorp almost every week. Ideally this new team would play out of a Titans like boutique stadium and take 3 of the years biggest games to Suncorp (much like the Titans will in the future). This team will likely have to be a new venture, state pride still reigns supreme in QLD and I cannot see QLDers throwing their support behind a team that was conceived in NSW. The draw should be scheduled so that at least one game is played in SE-QLD each weekend.
Wellington should be given serious consideration as NZ is producing large numbers of quality players. A second team will strengthen the NZ international side, and generate interest by the playing of the Auckland v Wellington derby. A second NZ side will also increase media presence for the NRL if one of the sides is performing poor. A Wellington franchise would increase the value of the NZ broadcast rights (It was $8 million a year in 2001).
The Central Coast will be seen as an ideal relocation point for an existing Sydney team as:
a) A relocated NSW team won't work in QLD, and WA is taking a different path with the WA Reds (and seem to have ARL's backing that this is the way to go) .
b) A Sydney team has the best chance of retaining existing fans if the club is moved to a location within driving distance.
c) Their are already 9 teams within driving distance of Gosford.
d) It is the least appealing option in term of growing the amount of revenue the NRL can earn.
e) if faced with the choice of death or relocation, the later will be an easy sell for the NRL.
Ideally in an 18 team comp teams would play each other once during the regular season, with an additional 3-5 rounds to be played so that the greatest rivalries are scheduled twice a year. All teams would have 2 byes in the lead up to Origin games. This would mean there would be 3 games played on the weekend leading into each Origin, making it a 22-25 week regular season, + 4 weeks finals football.
The Titans got it right by recruiting over 2 years, so lets assume that the same time frame will apply to new clubs. If the NRL was to decide on 2 new teams for 2012, the following should occur:
2010
-The NRL announce they will be increasing the number of teams to 18 and are open to proposals.
- A few months later the NRL announce WA and Wellington as successful (They may delay one of the acceptances for 12 months if some aspects are lacking).
- The new teams will be brought in over 2 years to give them a better chance at recruitment. The proposal that is the more advanced will be accepted first and begin playing in 2012 (assume WA for this example)
- WA recruit the first of their players (marquees, with some having to sign one year agreements to tide themselves over till 2012).
2011
- WA recruit the remainder of their inaugural squad.
- The second accepted franchise proposal is announced (if it wasn't the previous year).
- Wellington begin their recruitment of players.
- NRL negotiate new TV deal to begin in 2013.
2012
- WA's inaugural season.
- The bye returns for one season only.
- Wellington recruit the remainder of their squad.
2013
- Wellington's inaugural season.
- 9 games are played per week in an 18 team NRL competition.
- The new NRL TV rights deal commence.
I also believe there will be a shift in the way NSW club are run. They will be either privatised or re-structured. Where Leagues Clubs were once a source of great power for teams they have been transformed into a noose around the neck for some. The arcane structure some clubs have require potential board members be elected by a leagues club before they can sit on the NRL teams board. As the interests of the two diverge in the future a greater conflict of interests will occur. it's absurd that to administer an NRL club people will be seeking the votes of Leagues club members that have no interest in the well being of the NRL side.
The stadium facilities available to clubs will become more and more a case of the haves and have-not's over the coming decade. Those clubs playing out of the more advanced venues will have a greater chance of drawing casual spectators and converting them to regular attendee's and will have a huge advantage in drawing corporate support where a premium can be made. Not to mention the differences in Gate Reciepts.
One of the best ways to ensure that the government keeps the grants to your clubs stadium flowing (besides being located in a marginal seat) is for the venue to accommodate as many tenants as possible. More games being played = more spectators = a higher return on the governments continual investment.
With the number of suburban Sydney NRL grounds that are coming to the end of their lifespan, and realistically need to be tore down and rebuilt, Ground rationalisation will occur sooner than later, and those grounds that only hold 6 or so games a season will quickly fall be the wayside. This ground rationalisation will be the catalyst for relocation and potential joint ventures.
