mmm...not so sure. It seems if 7 get it they will have paid a premium, thanks in part to ch.9. It is possible they will then onsell some of the games to 10 or 9 or both anyway, so 9 & 10 could still finish up with some sport content. Also, to throw another spanner in the works is the legal action between 7 & 10, soaking up more dough of these networks and apparently 10 hasn't got a lot of dough to start with.
The cards seem to be falling towards 7 getting the AFL and not much of a challenge for 9 for the NRL, possibly leaving them free to treat the game with the same contempt they have shown us for years.
Hope I'm wrong, & would love some of you guys who are closer to the action to comment, hopefully some thoughts on if you think it will fall this way.
It depends on which way the next few day go, but we should be alright.
- If 9 poach the AFL and keep all games, then we are in good shape, because 9 still have the first and last rights for the NRL and wont give it up without a competitive bid, a bid 7 is in a financial position to win.
- If 9 get the rights and offload 2 games to 7, or vice versa, or 7 and 10 share them, then all could be active participants in NRL bidding, though with less leeway for big bids.
- A lot depends on what Murdoch and Packer plan on doing with Ten/One/Eleven. If 10 are kept out of it to protect their pay tv sporting properties, then it doesent help us, if they make a genuine play for our rights then we are set for a big payday.
- The worst outcome for us is if 7 pay a lot for the AFL rights and want to show all 4 games, or 10 and 9 are not interested in taking a couple off them, effectively taking 7 out of the game, and then 10 is taken out by Murdoch. If that happens, then we are left with 9 with the first and last bid rights and no other actor in a position to press them.
But even if that happens I am confident an IC will wring a decent deal out of them, not a bonanza but one that is lucrative and guarantees multichanneled games all around the country.